Prop. 209’s Fate May Hinge on 2 Words

The potentially pivotal importance of the words “affirmative action” in the debate over Proposition 209 became apparent again Wednesday with the release of a new opinion poll showing growing opposition to the measure.

Proposition 209 would ban state and local affirmative action programs in public education, hiring and contracting. But the measure does not use the words “affirmative action” in the ballot language.

In a sampling of 824 likely California voters, the Field Poll found 46% inclined to vote for the measure, 41% against and 13% undecided. The response came after poll participants were advised through a prior question that the measure involves affirmative action.

In a previous Field poll, the margin in favor of Proposition 209 was 47% to 32%.

However, other polls that did not use the phrase “affirmative action,” including a Los Angeles Times poll, showed the measure doing significantly better.

The official ballot title and description of Proposition 209, which many voters will read just as they are making their yes-or-no choices on Tuesday, describes the proposal in bold capital letters: “Prohibition against discrimination or preferential treatment by state and other public entities.”

Then, in smaller type, the voter is told: “Generally prohibits discrimination or preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public employment, education and contracting.”

When the Times Poll asked likely voters recently if they supported or opposed Proposition 209, using only the official language on the ballot, the initiative was favored 54% to 31%, with 15% unsure or undecided.

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Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Times Poll, observed: “When you ask the question using the words ‘affirmative action,’ you’re going to get a higher rate of people opposed to 209 because it’s about affirmative action.”

And when the Times Poll did use the words “affirmative action” in one survey last July, the outcome was very close to the latest Field poll: 43% supported Proposition 209 and 40% opposed it.

Read Scott Martin, a spokesman for the organization Defeat 209, described any discussion over the wording of poll questions as “clinical” and hailed the new Field poll as evidence that Proposition 209 will lose.

What is important, he said, is a trend over recent weeks that shows the race getting ever closer.

“The support for 209 is declining as awareness increases,” he said. “The Field poll is a shot of adrenaline and a confirmation that everything we are doing is working.” But Martin also said the official ballot language of the measure “is deceitful.” Last summer, civil rights groups went into court in an attempt to force state officials to include the words “affirmative action” in the official ballot designation.

They initially won in Superior Court, but lost in an appeals court.

Ward Connerly, the chairman of the Yes on Proposition 209 campaign, said, “We always expected the poll numbers to close. In the last week of the campaign, we will continue to carry our message of equal opportunity without quotas to the California voters.”

The battle over the two words reflects a broader dispute over the meaning of the initiative measure.

Opponents argue that Proposition 209 effectively would eliminate state-sponsored affirmative action programs designed to assist women and members of minority groups. And generally, opinion polls indicate that Californians strongly support the concept of affirmative action but not preferences or quotas.

Proposition 209 sponsors say the measure merely would, by state constitutional amendment, bar state and local governments from giving preferential treatment to such groups. To do so, they argue, is to discriminate against others who do not receive such preferences.

There are other ways to provide affirmative action, the sponsors say, such as through outreach programs and help for people on the basis of economic need.

As for varying poll results, many factors could be at work to account for differences, experts said. Different polls may use different techniques, the two surveys were taken one week apart, and the dynamics of an emotional political campaign can change rapidly as the election nears.

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Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo cautioned against concluding that Proposition 209 “is now on a track to fail.” It is too early to tell if the trend toward a tighter race will continue into election week, he said.

Pollsters often emphasize that a poll is only a “snapshot in time” and not a means of predicting an election result.

DiCamillo noted that Field Poll surveys a week before the 1994 election indicated a dramatic tightening of the battle over Proposition 187, the initiative measure to eliminate state services to illegal immigrants. Proposition 187 won by about 2 to 1.

Also, political experts believe that poll respondents may hedge their answers when responding to questions regarding race so that they do not appear to be prejudiced.

The Field Poll was taken as two events were pushing Proposition 209 into greater public awareness. One was Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole’s latest California campaign swing, during which he vigorously supported Proposition 209.

The other was a dispute over a proposed television ad sponsored by the California Republican Party that would have claimed that Martin Luther King, the late civil rights leader, would have supported the concept of Proposition 209.

The King portion of the ad was deleted after protests by civil rights groups, but the version that is airing links support for affirmative action with President Clinton.

Field Poll founder Mervin Field said it is easier for voters to turn against a measure such as Proposition 209 if it becomes the center of partisan fighting.

Connerly, the Proposition 209 chairman, said in his statement, “equal opportunity is not a partisan issue. . . . Our campaign has always been a nonpartisan effort that includes Democrats, Republicans, independents, libertarians, Reform Party members and many others who do not claim a party affiliation.”

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Different Words, Different Results

In a recent polls of likely voters, the Field Poll received far different results regarding support for Proposition 209 than did a Los Angeles Times poll only a few days earlier. A key reason appears to be the inclusion of the words “affirmative action” in the questions. Here is a comparison of the two polls’ questions and results.

Field Poll

Results from 824 likely voters. Field did not reveal the total sample size.

THE FIRST QUESTION: Have you seen, read or heard anything about an initiative Proposition 209 that will appear on the November statewide election ballot having to do with state and local laws relating to affirmative action, referred to as the California Civil Rights Initiative?

If yes: From what you have seen, read or heard are you inclined to vote yes or no on this initiative Proposition 209 if the election were held today?

THE RESULTS:

* 82% answered yes, they were aware of the measure.

* 27% said they were inclined to support it.

* 30% were inclined to oppose it.

* 25% were not sure.

THE SECOND QUESTION: Proposition 209 is titled Prohibition Against Discrimination or Preferential Treatment by State and Other Public Entities. It generally prohibits discrimination or preferential treatment based on race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public employment, education and contracting. Fiscal impact: Could affect state and local programs that currently cost well in excess of $125 million annually. Actual savings would depend on various factors such as future court decisions and implementation actions by government entities. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 209?

If undecided: If you had to decide today, would you be inclined to vote yes or no on Proposition 209?

THE RESULTS:

* 46% said yes.

* 41% said no.

* 13% were undecided.

Times Poll

Results from a telephone survey conducted Oct. 17-21 of 1,551 California adults. Of the respondents, 1,290 were registered voters and 1,038 were likely voters.

THE FIRST QUESTION: Have you heard or read anything about a statewide measure on the Nov. 5 general election ballot called Proposition 209, the Prohibition Against Discrimination or Preferential Treatment by State and Other Public Entities Initiative Constitutional Amendment that supporters call the California Civil Rights Initiative?

If yes: If the Nov. 5 election were being held today, would you vote for or against the initiative?

THE RESULTS:

* 65% answered yes, they were aware of the measure.

* 35% of registered voters and 28% of likely voters said they had not heard of the measure.

* 26% of registered voters and 29% of likely voters said they would vote for Proposition 209.

* 19% of registered voters and 21% of likely voters said they would vote against it.

* 20% of registered voters and 22% of likely voters said they did not know how they would vote.

THE SECOND QUESTION: If passed, Proposition 209 would prohibit the state or localities from using race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin as a criterion for either discriminating against or granting preferential treatment to any individual or group in public employment, public education, or public contracting. If the Nov. 5 election were being held today, would you vote for or against Proposition 209?

THE RESULTS:

* 52% of registered voters and 54% of likely voters said they would vote for Proposition 209.

* 30% of registered voters and 31% of likely voters said they would vote against it.

* 18% of registered voters and 15% of likely voters said they did not know how they would vote.

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Times staff writer Dave Lesher in Sacramento contributed to this story.

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* PROP. 209 AND THE LAW

Experts say the ban would pose a host of legal questions. A3

* FREQUENT VISITOR

Fund-raiser John Huang made 78 White House visits. A10