A Growing Fire in Central Africa : It is not too late to avert war between Rwanda and Zaire

War, sadly an African staple, is becoming increasingly likely between Rwanda and Zaire as the ethnic conflict between Hutus and Tutsis threatens to destabilize the entire region and further endanger an estimated 500,000 refugees who can find neither food nor haven.

Diplomatic efforts by the United Nations, which has sent in a Canadian envoy, and, more important, by the Organization of African Unity, which has sent a team, offer the best hope of peace. Unfortunately, the OAU has abandoned a proposal to create a military intervention force to defuse crises, but the newly activist OAU remains well-positioned to offer African solutions that could curb further killing and chaos.

Zaire needs all the help it can get. President Mobutu Sese Sekou, who remains in Switzerland reportedly undergoing medical treatment, has financially bled the mineral-rich country and thwarted all attempts to replace his dictatorship with a democracy during his more than 30 years in power. The army is undisciplined, underpaid, corrupt and generally in lousy shape to defend Zaire against any Rwandan army advance. A prolonged fight could reshape Zairean boundaries and trigger internal collapse. Rwandan forces have begun openly shelling Zairean positions.

Tutsis, who are currently in power in Rwanda and Burundi, have the right of self-defense. That they are the hard-liners in this latest convulsion in Central Africa is no surprise since the Hutus tried to exterminate the Tutsi minority in 1994, a genocidal conflict that set the stage for the current fighting. They could not have been expected to sit on the sidelines while Zairean soldiers and Hutu militants, who have been regrouping and rearming in Zairean refugee camps, targeted Tutsis who have lived for two centuries in eastern Zaire. Before resorting to violence, the governments and their armies should have attempted negotiations.

If the conflict continues unchecked, it could spread to Uganda and Tanzania because these nations also sheltered refugees.

International pressure--from within and outside Africa--is needed to get representatives of Rwanda, Burundi and Zaire to the table. This has gone beyond a dangerous situation. It’s a deadly one.