The Soul of the New Machine

A firm handshake is a traditional sign of strong character. In the case of IBM computer scientist Tom Zimmerman, this common greeting sends a more explicit message: Zimmerman’s name, address and phone number.

The information passes without a single spoken word. A transmitter in the sole of Zimmerman’s shoe emits faint electronic signals that course from toes to fingertips. The saltwater in the human body provides the perfect vehicle for transporting these fragile signals, and since their wattage is many magnitudes less than that of a microwave oven, they present no danger to anyone willing to become a computer network.

To receive the signals, one need only touch Zimmerman, whose body has become an electronic field. Translating them into human language requires that the recipient also wear special gear--shoes equipped with an amplifier sensitive enough to detect the low-frequency signals and a computer the size of a wristwatch to display Zimmerman’s vital statistics.

Even Zimmerman, who is on the staff of IBM’s Almaden Research Center in San Jose, concedes that few people will wear the George Jetson wardrobe required for “intrabody communication” within the next decade. Even so, he’s taken a giant step for a research scientist--bringing his idea from whiteboard to working prototype, which he will demonstrate this week at the Comdex computer trade show in Las Vegas.

It is computer scientists like Zimmerman who expand technical boundaries and ultimately set direction for the entire industry. His idea for the “personal-area network” takes two familiar concepts--the personal computer and computer-to-computer networks--and pushes them to their logical extreme.

As the PC industry gathers for Comdex, many participants feel an acute need for this type of creativity--if not this particular idea. The IBM PC is 15 years old, and the microprocessor that made it possible predates it by a decade. Among those who made fortunes from the PC, there is a sense of concern that it may be, if not obsolete, at least past its prime.

“I’m not interested in the PC anymore,” claims Steve Jobs, co-founder of Apple Computer Inc. “They haven’t changed in 10 years. They look the same way they did when I was at Apple. They’re boring.”

The PC’s evolution is the most critical issue facing the industry, said Nick Donatiello, president of Odyssey Research in San Francisco. “The PC is not a living organism. It can’t change on its own, and in the form it is in today, it is simply too hard to use, too hard to set up and too unreliable.”

Without an overhaul, the PC will never be taken into the nearly two-thirds of American homes without one, Donatiello warned.

Some see the solution in the new stripped-down PCs known as network computers that are being promoted by Sun Microsystems Inc. and Oracle Corp. But others believe more fundamental innovation is needed.

Here are the thoughts of some industry leaders on the future of the PC.

Nathan Myhrvold, Group vice president of applications and content, Microsoft Corp.

Myhrvold, a schoolyard prodigy like his boss, Bill Gates, and a physicist by training, is the software giant’s designated visionary-in-residence.

Predictably, Myhrvold disagrees with those who would deconstruct today’s PC, although he concedes it must evolve if Gates is to realize his dream of a computer in every home.

“If we’ve learned anything from history of the PC, it’s evolution, not revolution,” Myhrvold said. “We’ll certainly be surrounded by a lot of gadgets, but they won’t minimize the importance of the general-purpose computer.”

Computing horsepower will be harnessed to enable multimedia software that will make the PC more pleasurable for the average user. For example, powerful microprocessors running sophisticated software will facilitate the creation of virtual worlds in which a computer user in New York will chat online with a friend in Los Angeles as though they were sharing a cappuccino at the corner coffeehouse.

“We’re just on the edge of doing real video on the PC,” Myhrvold said. “In five years, video files will be as prevalent as test files. Suddenly your PC will have better video than your TV and better sound than your stereo. That’s going to cause an explosion of human interest.”

Myhrvold has harsh words for those who would dumb down the PC to create a network computer: “There’s some sophistry going on in that the companies espousing this weren’t part of the PC revolution. Their leaders have a neurological condition called ‘Bill envy.’ Once you get a good case of Bill envy, you can no longer see straight.”

Mark Weiser, Manager, Xerox Palo Alto Research Center Computer Science Laboratory.

The golden era in which the copier company’s research lab essentially invented the modern PC--as well as the local-area network and the laser printer--may be long gone, but computer scientists say PARC is again percolating with interesting ideas.

Like Zimmerman, Weiser believes the PC will be deconstructed into gadgets that will make computing invisible to the user.

“When you walk into a store, the computer in your shoes will upload information about the floor plan and will then send it to a computer the size of a credit card with a tiny display,” Weiser said. “You’ll know where your favorite pair of socks are located.”

Weiser calls “calm computing” the third of three revolutions. The first was the mainframe era, in which many people shared the use of one large computer; the second was the PC age, now ending, in which every person has his or her own machine; and the emerging period, in which a plethora of computers will serve each individual.

Some of those computers the individual might own, and others--like the computer in the department store--will be part of the environment. In Weiser’s world, computers are ubiquitous: Walls and tabletops become displays for computers that are there for the using. “The PC will always be on and always accessible,” he said.

“Each of these devices will do less for us, but they’ll do specific tasks much better,” Weiser said. The cellular telephone is the first of these highly specialized devices.

Where Weiser parts ways with peers such as Zimmerman--and other proponents of the “things that think” theory that originated at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Media Lab--is that he believes these gadgets will possess little intelligence. Although they will be smart enough to understand human language, they will be unable to act independently.

“I think it’s easier to make them dumb, and I think people don’t like the idea of machines running their life, carrying on a dialogue between themselves about their owner,” Weiser said.

George Gilder, Futurist and author of “The Microcosm.”

Gilder, the son of a minister, offers reflections on technology that often sound like those of a preacher. He has been swept up by the cyberspace craze and is particularly taken with Sun Microsystems’ Java, a software language designed specifically for Internet applications.

“My general thesis is that what will overtake the PC is the Java ‘teleputer,’ ” Gilder said. “It will be as portable as a cellular phone, it’s going to recognize speech, it’s going to navigate streets and it’s going to collect your paycheck. It’ll even guide you through the shopping center. And you’ll be using devices you don’t own--the public kiosk, the computer in a hotel room. I don’t think people will be carrying a lot of devices.

“There will be a variety of form factors, but the essential one will be the cellular telephone,” he said.

Microsoft’s Windows will be supplanted by Java, Gilder said, “not that I don’t think Microsoft and Intel [Corp.] will be in the thick of things making Java machines.”

Gilder is no longer enthusiastic about speech recognition. “I used to think voice was going to take over everything,” he acknowledged. “But your voice isn’t as robust as your hands. If you’re constantly talking to your computer, your voice is just going to wear out.”

Stewart Alsop, Partner with New Enterprise Associates.

Before becoming a venture capitalist, Alsop had a dynamic career as a trade magazine publisher, newsletter writer and conference impresario. He tends to favor a traditional view.

“We’re stuck with [Microsoft’s] Windows,” he said. “It’s good enough that people won’t rebel. And even though Microsoft won’t make it better as fast as we want them to, they’ll improve it. It’ll never be very good, but it will be good enough so there’s no reason to change.

“You need some organizing principle for your computer and the operating system is that, and it will continue to be, regardless of whether the input method is voice, handwriting or the keyboard.”

Voice recognition is “the last major opportunity” for a technological breakthrough with the potential to significantly alter the PC, he believes. “But there are a lot of reasons that voice is inefficient,” Alsop noted. “I’m not persuaded that the voice is the way to interface with a machine.”

David Nagel, President, AT&T; Labs.

The former head of software development at Apple Computer, Nagel now presides over a research lab that’s far more focused on practical, market-oriented developments than the old Bell Laboratories from which it sprung.

“The deconstructed PCs will eventually become popular,” he said. “If the PC is ever going to expand beyond 50% of the market, they have to become easier to use, and then the only alternative is to simplify it. Ironically, what we’ll wind up with will look very much like an early PC.”

The most popular of these scaled-down PCs will be those used solely to communicate--the promise of Apple’s Newton personal digital assistant without the problems that come with poor-quality handwriting recognition.

Nagel looks forward to the day when he will utter commands to his computer.

“We’re on the cusp of devices that recognize speech,” he said. “But it’s going to require a big breakthrough--there’s a difference between recognition and understanding.”

He thinks “speech understanding” will be achieved in five years.

What of “intrabody communication”?

“It’s interesting and it’s even amazing, but it’s not compelling,” Nagel said. “But we all have our idiosyncratic fantasies.”

Ann Winblad, Partner with Hummer Winblad Venture Partners.

As befits a venture capitalist, Winblad--who tirelessly roams computer trade shows and reads every piece of mail in the hope of finding entrepreneurs and ideas that capture her fancy--takes a sober view of how the PC will evolve.

“There’s a propensity in this industry to love gadgets,” she said. “And we think everybody loves what we love--that the average person is willing to spend $1,000 for a gadget like we would.” Winblad believes more multipurpose PCs will make their way into homes and continue to be purchased by consumers, serving as both a productivity tool and entertainment center.

But in corporate America, “the desktop machine is becoming a sideshow,” she said. “The distributed-computing model is going to come on full force, and the real innovation is going to happen at the server,” the computer that manages and interacts with the many client machines in a network. Ever more powerful computer servers enabling real-time collaboration will create the first true “knowledge workers,” she said.

And home and office PCs will benefit from such breakthroughs as speech recognition. “In 10 years, there will be speech-to-text and text-to-speech. That will be a significant change in how we interact with computers and will make us much more efficient.”