JAPAN’S TREK TO STARDOM

A prototype of a Japanese space shuttle, suspended by cables from a helicopter, was lifted high above a desert landing strip in southern Australia last July, then released to glide smoothly to Earth.

Test landings of ALFLEX--the “automatic landing flight experiment plane”--continued for several weeks, each time with the 20-foot, 1,700-pound craft safely landed by a computer and satellite signals. Combined with earlier experiments that tested technology for reentry of spacecraft into the Earth’s atmosphere, the successful ALFLEX flights put Japan in position to start work on its first unmanned space shuttle, due for launch in 2000.

The planned shuttle, dubbed Hope, and the H-IIA rocket that will launch it are key features of a little-noticed but highly ambitious program that has vaulted Japan into the top ranks of space technology.

Indeed, given Japan’s economic and technological strengths, it is considered only a matter of time before the quality of its space program surpasses that of Russia, which faces severe funding problems and physical decline. Troubles in Russia’s program were dramatically illustrated by the plunge into the Pacific Ocean last week of the plutonium-carrying debris of a failed Mars mission.

Although Russia remains far ahead in manned space flight, some U.S. officials say the Japanese have already surpassed Russia in the ability to develop new technology and fund expensive projects. That makes Japan and the European Union the key future partners in space for the U.S.

Now funded at $2.2 billion per year, Japan’s space effort is growing fast, with officials seeking about $65 billion in funding over the next 15 years.

“We have succeeded in catching up [with the world’s major space powers] in launch vehicles and satellite technology,” said Masanori Homma, manager for policy and strategy at the National Space Development Agency of Japan. “But technology is just a tool. The next question is how to use that technology.”

Japan will seek direct economic benefits from space, such as can be gained from Earth-observation or communications satellites, and also “challenge new frontiers” through such projects as exploration of the moon, Homma said.

As one step toward achieving these goals, Japan is revamping its existing top-of-the-line rocket--the highly sophisticated but very expensive H-II--into a much cheaper version called the H-IIA.

Each H-IIA rocket is expected to cost less than half as much as the H-II, a 260-ton rocket developed at a cost of $2.5 billion and first launched in 1994. At $170 million per vehicle, the H-II--which has been through four launches, all successful--puts too much financial burden on Japan’s space program and is also too expensive to compete in the global commercial launch market.

The first test launch of the H-IIA is planned for 2000, with Japan expected to be a player in the commercial launch market almost immediately after that. Development costs for the H-IIA are projected at $600 million, with per-vehicle costs of about $77 million.

The marketing of H-IIA launches is being pursued by Rocket Systems Corp., a private company jointly owned by 73 leading Japanese firms, headed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd., NEC Corp., Nissan Motor Co. and Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co. These are the firms with key roles in building the H-II rocket and the future H-IIA.

U.S. satellite-maker Hughes Space & Communications of Los Angeles is negotiating with Rocket Systems Corp. to use the H-IIA for launches starting shortly after 2000.

Japanese officials say they expect a contract for about 10 to 20 launches to be signed soon. Such commercial launch deals, while not described as a major purpose of Japan’s space effort, could help pay for rocket development expenses and also help justify the costs of the space program to the Japanese public.

Another key focus is participation in the planned International Space Station, a joint project by the United States, Japan, Russia, Europe and Canada that’s scheduled to begin ongoing manned operation in 2002. There are concerns that the funding problems of the Russian space program may cause delays, but both Japanese and U.S. officials say they expect the station to be built at least close to the current schedule.

“The Russians have their reputation on the line,” explained a U.S. government official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “If they can’t do this, their status as a superpower is eroded even more. Right now we’re in a situation where things are going ahead.”

Although Russia’s space infrastructure is extensive, it’s aging and in need of repair, this official said, adding that in her view Japan has passed Russia as a space power.

Russia doesn’t have “the vast resources . . . that the Japanese space program has,” she explained. “Japan is a very rich country. If they’re interested in pursuing space--and I think they are--they will continue to put in the funding.”

Japan already has strong abilities in Earth observation and communications satellites, and it is now planning two significant moon probes. One planned for next year will drop three devices equipped with thermal and seismic sensors into the moon’s surface to gather information on the moon’s structure.

A far more ambitious Japanese project planned for 2003 aims to place a soft-landing craft on the moon and put into moon orbit both a remote sensor device and a data relay satellite. Goals include examination of moon materials and precise mapping of the moon’s surface, with sufficient detail to show objects about 40 inches in size--something that has never been done before. And this is just a beginning.

“Fifty years from now, in the next generation or our grandchildren’s generation, the moon will be a base for our activities, not only for scientific purposes but for practical purposes, for instance navigation, telecommunications, some energy,” Homma said.

Japan’s step-by-step approach to space is based on long-term planning with steady progress toward well-defined goals. The effort to develop launch vehicles, for example, began in 1955 with a tiny missile that was dubbed the “pencil rocket.”

“The Japanese, throughout their space program, whatever area you’re talking about--transportation, satellites, Earth observation programs--they’ll start very small and they’ll build on that,” said the U.S. government official. “At first people look at it--this is a Western perspective--and they think, ‘Gee, that’s nice that they’re interested in doing something.’ But they’re never impressed technologically.

“But what the Japanese do is they continue to build on it year after year. So the pencil rocket of 1955 is now the H-II, which is a world-class launch vehicle.”

Although Japan’s current efforts are focused entirely on civilian uses of space, the knowledge it is gaining could quickly be put to military use were it not for legal, political and policy constraints, and the fear of how foreign countries might react.

“The United States and Japan as well as over 20 countries participate in what’s called the Missile Technology Control Regime,” said a foreign aerospace expert knowledgeable about Japan’s space program, also speaking on condition of anonymity. “The idea is to ensure that missile-related technologies and equipment do not get transferred, that there is no proliferation. If you read what was listed as equipment or components, you would say, ‘Hey, this sounds like a space launch vehicle!’

“While the Japanese have a very, very strong public position about space being used for peaceful and civil purposes, they certainly have the technology that can be shifted over for military use.”

Asked about such concerns, Homma stressed that “peaceful purpose is not only the policy of the Cabinet, it’s the law of Japan. . . . Under present political circumstances, nobody thinks to use space technology for military purposes.”

Most of Japan’s current space efforts are linked to participation in the International Space Station, which is to include a Japan Experimental Module, or JEM. Plans call for the parts and equipment for this unit, with living quarters and experimental facilities, to be placed in orbit by three flights of the U.S. shuttle during 2000 and 2001. Japanese astronauts would also go to and from the space station by U.S. shuttle.

But Japan hopes to ship supplies and equipment to and from the station with its unmanned Hope shuttle, which will have rendezvous and docking ability.

All of this will help Japan obtain knowledge it intends to use to develop a reusable space vehicle complete with its own built-in launch capability, or what is sometimes called a “space plane.”

“The reusable transportation system will be our next major technology target,” Homma said.