Post-Holiday Job Outlook Rosier, Survey Finds

A traditional decline in hiring activity after the holiday season will not be as sharp as in previous years, according to a quarterly employment outlook survey from Manpower Inc.

“Seasonally, you get a drop in employment thanks to post-holiday adjustments of the work force,” Manpower Chief Executive Mitchell Fromstein said. “But the latest figures are a continuation of hiring patterns we’ve seen in the last few quarters. It’s modest growth, but it’s continuing growth.”

The Manpower poll of more than 16,000 public and private employers indicates that 21% plan to increase hiring in the first quarter of 1997. This compares favorably with the 20% that planned to increase hiring in the first quarter of 1996.

Eleven percent are planning work-force reductions, while 12% planned work-force reductions one year ago.

“The largest drop [in the first quarter] is usually in retail, obviously,” Fromstein said in an interview.

“But this year, retailers are anticipating a need for workers above and beyond what they expected for the holiday season. They feel their regular business will continue to be solid after the holidays.”

The current survey, released Sunday, shows fewer reductions in the wholesale and retail sectors than in any post-holiday period in the 20 years that Manpower has conducted the quarterly poll. Manpower is the largest temporary employment company in the world.

According to Milwaukee-based Manpower, the strongest gains in hiring rates are in durable goods manufacturing, financial, real estate and insurance, and education.

“There’s been an upswing in hiring for banks and insurance companies,” Fromstein said. “The increase was the strongest in the Northeast, where it had been the weakest. But the cycle seems to be stable for now.”

Finding a job in public administration will be slightly easier in the first quarter of next year than in recent months, the survey found.

Government jobs, which were more scarce than usual in 1996, should be more available in early 1997.

Of the public administration organizations contacted, 15% reported plans to beef up staff, while 9% will try to thin employment rolls.