Swelling Anger Threatens Serbia’s Leader

The idea, unthinkable just weeks ago, now is on everyone’s mind here: Could this be the beginning of the end of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic?

For the last 10 days, tens of thousands of students and anti-Communist demonstrators have filled the streets of this capital and other Yugoslav cities to protest Milosevic’s heavy-handed rule. With neighboring Croatia’s President Franjo Tudjman facing a similar wave of outrage, the two most powerful strongmen in the Balkans suddenly and unexpectedly face serious challenges to their authoritarian regimes.

Milosevic, seen by Western leaders as a key to regional stability, appears to have been especially stunned by overwhelming opposition victories in local elections held Nov. 3 in Belgrade and across the rump Yugoslavia, comprised of Serbia and Montenegro.

His response: Annul the results. “I’m not going to live in a . . . city controlled by the opposition,” Milosevic is said to have complained to associates.

On Wednesday, Milosevic held the elections again. This time the opposition labeled the vote a farce and boycotted it. More than 100,000 students and others again rallied, squaring off with police and burning a U.S. flag to press their demand for Western support. For the first time, there was violence: Rocks, instead of eggs and tomatoes, were used to smash scores of windows in state buildings. And B-92 Radio, the only independent electronic media outlet in Belgrade, was jammed Wednesday during its coverage of the demonstrations.

Even as opposition leaders step up their demands that Milosevic resign, the Serbian president is likely to clamp down more strongly rather than relent, diplomats and Serbian analysts say.

Milosevic can be expected to ignore the demonstrations and any international outcry against his actions. If, however, the protests build and become more violent, he may take drastic steps, such as impose a police crackdown or declare a state of emergency. The last time he faced major opposition, in 1991, Milosevic called out the troops and fueled war in neighboring countries as a distraction from domestic unrest.

His options may be more limited now, and Serbia’s citizens, beleaguered by a dismal economy that has left half the urban population out of work, appear more incensed.

For Washington and European capitals, the tension in Belgrade is especially problematic.

Western governments, particularly the Clinton administration, argue that they need Milosevic because of his cooperation in executing the U.S.-brokered Dayton, Ohio, peace accord that halted the war in neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina a year ago. Like Croatia’s Tudjman, who is said to be terminally ill, Milosevic helped foment the ethnic-based war but is now viewed by the West as central to the Bosnian peacekeeping effort in which thousands of U.S. troops are participating. Milosevic has been used to pressure his onetime Bosnian Serb proteges.

“We don’t want to lose him as a connection,” a European diplomat said.

In fact, Milosevic’s grudging cooperation has always been self-interested and limited, with an eye toward lifting punitive economic sanctions imposed on Yugoslavia by the United Nations. The sanctions were removed this year, but the final step--membership in international organizations--will remain off-limits to Yugoslavia, U.S. officials told Milosevic this week.

The opposition is accusing the West of failing to show support for its cause. While foreign governments have criticized Milosevic’s annulment of the elections, those condemnations have been mild.

Some diplomats in Belgrade appear more fearful of instability triggered by the demonstrations than of the attack on the democratic process.

“When you have a crowd of 100,000,” said a Western diplomat, “and then it grows to 200,000, it becomes uncontrollable from both sides.”

Opposition politicians, united loosely in a coalition called Together, seemed as surprised as Milosevic was at the strength of their electoral victories and the momentum of their street protests. Future escalation could include general or transport strikes.

The demonstrations Wednesday went beyond earlier calls for electoral justice and demanded Milosevic step down. Protesters predicted that Milosevic will ban two of Belgrade’s few independent newspapers following Wednesday’s jamming of B-92 radio.

“We have a choice: We can be slaves, or carry out a revolution,” opposition leader Zoran Djindjic said. “The lesson of these elections is . . . that if we can’t win by voting, then there will be a revolution.”

Regardless of how Milosevic survives this current and unprecedented crisis, permanent damage has been done to his regime, diplomats and analysts said. The obvious unrest will scare off potential investors just as markets, thanks to the lifting of U.N. sanctions, were about to open.

Special correspondent Silber reported from Belgrade, and Times staff writer Wilkinson from Vienna.