Merchants Get Ready for a Make-or-Break Weekend

With less than a week to go before Christmas, Joan Fitzsimmons of Costa Mesa has finished her Christmas shopping. Well, maybe.

“You know, I’ve gotten the big gifts for my husband and my kids--the ones I have to get,” said Fitzsimmons, 43, a computer technician with three children. “If I can handle the crowds and have the time, there may be a few more things I can pick up before Christmas.”

Analysts say the Joan Fitzsimmonses of the nation may well determine whether this holiday season brings yuletide joy or another disappointing silent night to America’s retailers. Although merchants are predicting a record-breaking weekend of sales, analysts are uncertain whether it will be enough to meet rosy projections of a 4% to 6% increase over last year’s dismal holiday sales.

“This weekend is super-critical for the retailers,” said William Ford of TeleCheck Services, the world’s largest check acceptance company. “The jobs, the money, the attitude are there to boost sales. It’s going to depend upon whether consumers want to spend a little more or a little less on the same person than they did last year.”

To encourage undecided shoppers to get into the spirit of buying, merchants are offering discounts, staging promotional activities and extending shopping hours. The pressure to draw shoppers has been intensified all the more by the calendar. Because Thanksgiving fell later in November, merchants were shortchanged five shopping days, including a weekend, compared with last year.

“We lost five golden days,” said Ken Gillett, general manager of Santa Anita Fashion Park in Arcadia. “We are doing everything we can to get the consumer into the stores these last few days.”

In addition to live holiday music and photos with Santa, many malls are hoping to attract even more last-minute customers by rewarding big spending. For instance, Los Cerritos Center in Cerritos is giving shoppers a $25 gift certificate to Kay-Bee Toys if they spend $250 in one day at the mall. (Anchor department stores are not part of the promotion.)

Also, most stores are advertising substantial discounts to boost sales down the stretch. Many stores are offering discounts of 30% to 40% on fall coats for women, sport coats for men and children’s sleepwear, to name a few items.

But some analysts question whether such specials are part of a shrewd marketing strategy devised months ago rather than a panicky reaction to lethargic sales.

So far, indicators show that holiday spending is outpacing last year, when it edged up a disappointing 2.5%. In the first 17 days of holiday shopping this year, retail stores gained 5% in sales nationwide, according to TeleCheck Services. California retailers posted increases of 3.9% over the same period. The L.A. area rose just 3.2%, according to TeleCheck. Checks account for more than one-third of retail spending.

To avoid a repeat of 1995’s lackluster sales, some analysts say shoppers who are unsure whether they have bought enough gifts must return to the stores before Christmas. About 27% of the nation’s shoppers fall into this undecided category a week before Christmas, according to Britt Beemer, president of America’s Research Group, a retail research firm based in Charleston, S.C.

“The real question is, ‘What’s this bunch going to do?’ ” Beemer said. “Are they planning to give their spouse four or five presents this year? Or will they be satisfied with the three or four they’ve already bought? I tend to think they’ll be satisfied with what they’ve got.”

But even if the undecideds don’t show in big numbers, last-minute holiday shoppers are still expected to hit stores and malls in droves this weekend, say industry analysts. The last week before Christmas usually accounts for one-third of the total holiday business, they say.

Though not of great concern in Southern California, what could be a wild card in determining final holiday sales throughout much of the country will be the weather. It could easily ruin what still could be a very good Christmas season, retailers say.

Times staff writer Greg Johnson contributed to this report.