Weekly Retail Sales Up 5.3% From ‘95, but Below Forecast

U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% from the previous week, as sales were less than retailers and analysts expected, according to data released Tuesday.

Sales for the week ended Saturday rose 5.3% from the same week last year, LJR Redbook Research reported. That’s a smaller rise than the increases registered the previous two weeks.

It was the second report Tuesday that shows lower-than-expected sales for the final full week of the important selling period. The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi/Schroder Wertheim said sales at stores open at least a year rose 1.3% last week from the prior week, less than what many chains expected.

“The numbers are still running nicely ahead of a year ago and ahead of last month. We just expected it to be better,” said Jay Meltzer, an analyst with LJR Redbook.

Even so, most retailers said they are meeting their expectations for the combined November-December sales period, in some cases because they stepped up price cuts and other promotions, the report said.

The Redbook report also said same-store sales, a key barometer that measures sales at stores open at least a year, rose 3.2% for the latest week compared with the year-ago week. That’s down from the previous two week’s increases.

Mitsubishi/Schroder Wertheim said same-store sales rose 4.8% for the week ended Saturday compared with a year earlier. The week’s sales were the softest of the holiday season when compared with retailers’ previous expectations.

Retailers had hoped for a bigger jump in same-store sales last week--the busiest period of the holiday season--to overcome a slow start. The lower-than-expected results put retailers on track for a 4% gain in holiday sales, which is less than the 4.5% to 5% increase the Bank of Tokyo report had earlier forecast.

“The momentum out there has slowed, relative to plan,” said John Harris, an analyst with Schroder Wertheim.

Combining November and December sales will give the most accurate picture of sales strength, analysts said, since many companies are reporting sales on different calendars.

“The calendar has really distorted things,” Meltzer said.

After the very disappointing Christmas of 1995, stores were optimistic that shoppers would spend enthusiastically this year, thanks to a healthy economy, and brisk buying was reported in first weeks of the season. But many stores failed to keep up the pace.

The lackluster sales were also attributed to high levels of consumer debt and foul weather in parts of the country. There were also five fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

“Each of our divisions were below plan for the week” ended Dec. 21, said Susan Eich, spokeswoman for Dayton-Hudson Corp., which operates the Target discount stores and Mervyn’s clothing stores.

According to TeleCheck Services Inc., a check approval service, the volume of sales paid for by check in the first 24 days of the Christmas season rose a moderate 5.7% from a year ago.

Many stores are reserving judgment until after New Year’s, hoping a burst of buying before and after Christmas would help push up December sales.

The LJR report also said it expects difficult calendar comparisons to skew results for the rest of the month. It said that will result in those stores which report on a fiscal calendar, mostly department stores, with steeper declines than those that report on the National Retail Federation calendar, which is different.

The LJR Redbook report said it expects the Commerce Department’s seasonally adjusted total retail sales in December to fall to $20.43 billion, down 0.6% from the same month last year.

It said sales for the week ended Dec. 21 were strongest in higher-priced clothing, men’s accessories and housewares at department stores. Discounters reported improved sales of electronics.