Zedillo the Partisan

Faced with a string of defeats in local and regional elections, Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo is retaking control of his ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, hoping to stem a decline that began a decade ago.

To shift course he needed a different skipper, and he chose the man in the classic PRI style: simply pointing his finger toward the new leader. Party president Santiago Onate promptly resigned and Humberto Roque, PRI leader in the Chamber of Deputies, stepped to the helm. Opposition parties fear the manner of change may signal a return to Mexico’s old mode of politics in which intimidation of opponents, under-the-table payments and widespread electoral fraud were the tools of the PRI’s overwhelming political victories for almost 70 years.

There’s no certainty that peremptory rule will return, and certainly Mexico will be better off if it doesn’t. Political backsliding would constitute a severe interruption in the country’s march toward modernity under the North American Free Trade Agreement, a setback the Mexican people, with an improving economy, would not accept without protest.

Roque, who will be the third PRI president in Zedillo’s two years in office, faces a party that is fragmenting, riven with irreconcilable internal divisions. And no matter what his intent, the move by Zedillo flies against his promise to keep a “healthy distance” between the presidency and the party.

This is not the first time his action has not matched his words. After a party revolt earlier this year, he accepted a watered-down version of his loudly heralded “definitive political reform,” which was to have ensured equal opportunity for all political parties. The “reform” ended up favoring the PRI. Later, again under party pressure, he reneged on an announced auction of state-run petrochemical plants to private bidders. Taken together, the party revolts against Zedillo make the president look like a captive of the PRI.

Zedillo has now tied his future to a man who has proven to be an efficient political hand for him in Congress. Roque delivered the votes needed to raise taxes and publicly rejoiced in doing it. He was also instrumental in pulling the necessary votes to approve the privatization of the pension fund system.

Will Zedillo and Roque now be able to reverse the slide of the PRI while preserving modern democratic politics? They are good politicians, but this would require a miracle. Mexicans and foreign investors alike will keep a critical eye on their next steps.