Rebel Forces Advance in Eastern Zaire, Pose Threat to Government

Rebel forces in eastern Zaire have achieved major territorial gains in the past week and now, for the first time, appear to seriously threaten the government of one of Africa’s largest nations.

United Nations officials, diplomats and military experts who closely follow the war say the guerrillas have smashed a long-promised counteroffensive launched with much fanfare Jan. 20 by Zairian troops and several hundred mercenaries, mostly French and Serb.

More important, the insurgents have captured several key towns and have advanced to within striking distance of Kisangani, a major provincial capital and Congo River port deep in the heart of Zaire.

“If Kisangani goes, so goes Zaire,” said a Western diplomat here.

A senior U.N. diplomat agreed, saying the city could fall within two weeks unless the chaotic Zairian army displays far greater fighting ability than it has since the rebellion led by veteran guerrilla fighter Laurent Kabila unexpectedly erupted in October.

Ragtag Zairian regulars have repeatedly fled without fighting, launching their own brutal sprees of murder, rape and looting as they abandoned towns to the rebels. In some cases, the soldiers panicked and deserted even at rumors that rebels were coming.

Several dozen U.N. relief workers were flown to Kisangani on Friday from three refugee camps southeast of the city after Zairian army troops tried to loot supplies at gunpoint, officials said. The aid workers are confined to their compounds, and an evacuation from Kisangani is now likely.

Kisangani, the largest city in eastern Zaire and the army’s main base for operations against the rebels, was reported tense after local residents marched on the governor’s office to protest what they called inadequate defenses.

Kisangani, located about 800 miles northeast of Kinshasa, Zaire’s capital, is also a major symbolic prize in the escalating civil war. Formerly known as Stanleyville, it was the focus of a notorious 1964 revolt that was put down by Belgian paratroopers and mercenaries after rebels threatened to massacre more than 1,000 Europeans held hostage in the city.

The rebels were reported about 125 miles southeast of Kisangani near the city of Lubutu, the last military garrison on the road to the city. There were conflicting reports that rebels already had entered the city. Unconfirmed reports said another group of rebels was advancing toward Bafwasende, about 140 miles northeast of Kisangani, in a pincers movement.

About 120,000 Rwandan Hutu refugees at camps near Lubutu have begun fleeing into the forests, U.N. officials said. Among them are believed to be thousands of former Rwandan soldiers, Hutu extremists and militiamen who played a major role in the 1994 genocide against Rwanda’s ethnic Tutsis.

Analysts say the capture of Kisangani now could spark riots, military mutinies or a coup in Kinshasa against Zairian President Mobutu Sese Seko.

Mobutu, 66, whose more than 31 years in power makes him Africa’s longest-serving ruler, returned Friday to Zaire after three weeks at his home on the French Riviera and a visit to Morocco. Mobutu, who has been treated for cancer, did not enter the capital. Instead he reportedly flew directly to his jungle redoubt at Gbadolite, along the northern Zaire border with Central African Republic.

Security experts said the rebels’ Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire has grown from a few hundred to an estimated 20,000 troops. The revolt began after the government tried to deny citizenship to local Tutsis whose ancestors came to Zaire from Rwanda during the last century. Rwanda backed the rebellion, which presented an opportunity to strike at Hutu extremists in refugee camps in eastern Zaire.

Kabila, who has called for the overthrow of Mobutu, told reporters Saturday in the eastern Zaire town of Goma that he would only negotiate a cease-fire if Mobutu met with him one-on-one and agreed to step down.

The insurgents, commanded by Tutsi officers trained in Rwanda and Uganda, now control a north-south strip of territory more than 800 miles long on the Zairian border with Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. They are advancing west toward the Congo River, which divides the vast country.

At the same time, a much-publicized Zairian offensive launched last month and backed by soldiers of fortune from France, Belgium, Russia, the Czech Republic and Serbia appears to have collapsed. In one battle, sources say, the rebels seized 100 tons of ammunition.

On Wednesday, Kabila’s forces seized Kalemie, a key airstrip and port at Lake Tanganyika about 500 miles southeast of Kisangani, giving them a springboard for the first time into mineral-rich Shaba province in southeast Zaire.

On Thursday, they took Shabunda, a strategic railway about 250 miles southeast of Kisangani. Kabila said his troops are now besieging the airstrip and army base at Kindu, a Congo River port upstream from Kisangani, and expect to take it within several days.

Mobutu’s government has confirmed the losses but played down the impact, saying few soldiers were stationed in Shabunda or Kalemie. Other reports say all the Zairian troops fled in panic before the rebels marched in.