A War That Israel Cannot Win

Israel continues to pay a heavy price for its military presence in the 440-square-mile “security zone” it maintains in southern Lebanon. In the last three years nearly 70 Israeli soldiers had been killed there in a shadowy war with Hezbollah, the Iranian-supported Party of God. This toll more than doubled last week when two Israeli helicopters collided over northern Israel, killing 73 soldiers bound for southern Lebanon. The troops were being moved by air precisely to avoid Hezbollah’s roadside bombing ambushes.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leading the national mourning for the victims, vowed that Israel’s policy in Lebanon would not change. In fact, most Israelis seem eager for a change that would end Israel’s mini-occupation, if effective security arrangements can be made. That condition remains the key obstacle.

Israel first tried to secure its northern border from attacks by Palestinian forces in Lebanon through a proxy army of Lebanese militiamen. After its ill-fated invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Israel augmented this client force with its own troops. At the same time the nature of the enemy confronting Israel changed. The Palestinians were effectively neutralized, only to be replaced by the radical Lebanese Muslims of Hezbollah. In effect, the Iranian revolution had been brought to Israel’s border.

While Hezbollah is financed and ideologically guided by Iran, it operates wholly on sufferance from Syria, which keeps 35,000 troops in Lebanon, enforces peace among the country’s antagonistic sectarian groups and controls Lebanon’s foreign policy as well as much of its domestic affairs. If Israel wants to settle its northern border problem it must deal with Syria. But Syria, not surprisingly, has little incentive to agree to a peaceful border. At minimal cost to itself it keeps border tensions high and stays on good terms with Iran, from which it gets subsidized oil. When Syria imposed an end to Lebanon’s civil strife it disarmed all the militias except Hezbollah. That gives it one more bargaining chip if it ever decides to negotiate peace with Israel.

Few Israelis are ready to support a unilateral withdrawal from south Lebanon, fearing that doing so would only invite increased cross-border attacks on Israeli civilians. But at a minimum, last week’s air disaster ought to prompt a comprehensive policy reappraisal, including an examination of alternatives. Hezbollah is conducting a war of attrition against Israel, and it’s one Israel can’t win.