Taiwan Worries About the Unknown in New Era

Deng Xiaoping has gone to meet Karl Marx, and with the death of the Chinese “paramount leader” goes a measure of stability in China’s 48-year standoff with Taiwan, according to politicians and analysts here.

On this democratic island 90 miles from China’s coast, many worry that the post-Deng power vacuum in Beijing could prompt a jingoistic display of force against Taipei. Aware that China’s problem could become Taiwan’s, leaders here are as interested as Communist Party cadres on the mainland in the outcome of looming challenges to Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

And, as was shown last year when President Clinton sent U.S. aircraft carriers to the area during Chinese military exercises, trouble for Taiwan can also mean problems for the United States.

A possible flash point could come in October at China’s 15th Communist Party Congress, where many analysts see Jiang facing a potentially bumpy road to reelection as party chief. In the worst scenario, some here believe that Chinese Communist leaders could escalate tension with Taiwan via a troop movement or missile test--a move by Beijing leaders that would divert attention from intraparty squabbling and assert their authority in a way that could not be opposed by rivals.

“No faction [in China] wants to be seen as soft on Taiwan,” noted political scientist Parris Chang, who is also chairman of the foreign affairs committee in Taiwan’s parliament.

Hostility toward the island is considered a safe stance to take in China, where capitalist Taiwan is officially seen as a runaway province.

Taiwan’s current identity was established by the retreat of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek and his Kuomintang, or Nationalist, forces here in 1949.

Since then, the ruling Kuomintang has held to an official goal of reunification with China. But in Taiwan, a significant number of the island’s 21 million residents argue that they should be considered an independent nation, not a part of China.

Although Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui officially favors reunification, China views him as secretly being for independence. Lee’s actions in recent years, as well as Taiwan’s democratic evolution, have provoked military responses from China.

Lee has sought membership for Taiwan in the United Nations, a status it lost to China in 1971. After Lee visited the United States to attend a reunion at Cornell University in 1995, China began test-firing missiles near Taiwan. Those hostile actions resumed weeks before Taiwan held its first presidential election in March 1996 and prompted the United States to respond by sending two aircraft carrier groups to the area.

Taiwan leaders believe that, besides possible power struggles in China, events in Taiwan could trigger further military moves.

The Dalai Lama, a crusader against China’s rule over Tibet, will visit Taiwan next month.

In July, Taiwan’s National Assembly is expected to pass constitutional amendments eliminating its provincial government structure; that proposed reform is viewed by many in Taiwan and China as an assertion of independence.

But just as the Taiwanese are split between independence-backers and those who favor reunification, opinion here is divided over how a harder-line regime in Beijing might affect the independence movement in Taiwan.

Shaw Yu-ming, director of the Institute for International Relations at National Cheng-chi University, believes that independence sentiments will dwindle if Beijing grows more belligerent.

Shaw, a former government spokesman, cited opinion polls showing that support for independence fell after last year’s missile tests.

That crisis, Shaw said, made Taiwanese “realize that [China] means business.” The Taiwanese saw that pushing independence “could invite an armed attack.”

But Chang, an independence backer, said a harsher regime in Beijing would make Taiwanese want to distance themselves even more from China.

Chang said China’s conduct in Hong Kong--where it resumes control in July--will also be scrutinized by the Taiwanese.

“If basic freedoms and liberties are abolished, there certainly will be more support for independence” in Taiwan, Chang said.

Despite all the concern about who will lead China after Deng--who opened the mainland to trade with Taiwan in the 1980s--few here see any possible military posturing by Beijing escalating into actual conflict.

That is because Taiwan and China have seen boom times--with each finding the other an increasingly important economic partner.

Taiwan companies, for example, now have more than $20 billion invested in China. And few believe that China will be willing to poison the prosperous well that has sprung up from its greater commercial ties to Taiwan.

China, Shaw said, “knows the importance of good economic relations with Taiwan. They’ve tasted the sweetness of success.”

For their part, Taiwanese leaders responded politely Thursday to Deng’s death.

The government’s official statement credited Deng with raising the Chinese standard of living and opening China to the West; some legislators here said they hoped that President Lee would attend Deng’s funeral.

As Taiwanese leaders mulled the possible effects of Deng’s death, public reaction was minimal.

There were no signs of fear that the Taiwanese way of life may be endangered by the passing of China’s senior leader. Instead, it was business as usual on the prosperous island, where even small cities have Mercedes dealerships, and billboards in Taipei advertise Pasadena houses for sale as investments.

Taipei streets were jammed as usual with morning commuters. Taiwan’s stock market closed higher than the previous day. And street vendors hawked hot noodle soup and cold duck feet just like any other day. In fact, one vendor at Nan Men market here expressed surprise when asked her opinion of Deng’s death.

“I didn’t know he died,” she replied coolly, then went back to preparing her day’s supply of fermented tofu.

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Wary Neighbor

After the defeat of its armies by Mao Tse-tung’s Communists on the mainland, the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan. Chiang made Taipei the capital of the Republic of China. Beijing refuses to rule out the use of force to retake Taiwan. The island says it wants reunification, but insists this occur under democracy and a free market.

THE MILITARIES

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Taiwan China Defense budget $13.6 billion $8.4 billion Active-duty armed forces 376,000 2,935,000 Reservists 1.7 million 1.2 million Intercontinental missiles 0 17 Medium-range missiles 0 70-plus Fighter/attack aircraft 327 4,400 Bombers 0 420 Submarines 4 63 Destroyers/frigates 36 54

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THE PEOPLE AND THE ECONOMIES

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Taiwan China Population 21.7 million 1.2 billion Urban population 58% 30% Population Growth Rate 1.0% 1.2% Life expectancy 73 male 68 male 79 female 71 female Gross domestic product $304 billion $3.6 trillion Inflation 2.5% 6.9%

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WORRIES AHEAD

* A possible flash point could come in October at China’s 15th Communist Party Congress, where many analysts see Jiang facing a potentially bumpy road to reelection as party chief. Some here think that Chinese Communist leaders could divert attention from intraparty squabbling via a troop movement or missile test.

* The Dalai Lama, a crusader against China’s rule over Tibet, will visit Taiwan in March.

* In July, Taiwan’s National Assembly is expected to pass constitutional amendments eliminating its provincial government structure; that reform is viewed by many in Taiwan and China as an assertion of independence.

Sources: The International Institute for Stategic Studies, Asian Week, World Almanac, Economist Intelligence Unit

Researched by SCOTT J. WILSON / Los Angeles Times