BUBBLE TROUBLE

It sure was a lot easier for Henry Bibby to figure out the NCAA tournament when he played for UCLA:

--1970: win Pac-8 title, get ball to Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe, beat Jacksonville in title game, cut down net, pick up ring.

--1971: same as ‘70, except beat Villanova instead of Jacksonville, pick up ring.

--1972: same as ‘71, except get ball to Bill Walton instead of Wicks and Rowe, beat Florida State, pick up ring.

Three years, three titles.

So, what’s with all this “bubble” stuff?

As Coach Bibby takes his USC team to the precipice of this year’s tournament, he can’t believe all the hoops they make you jump through now.

It was this frustration that led Bibby to wonder out loud after last Saturday’s victory over Oregon State how his Trojans could be ahead of Arizona--half a game at the time--Stanford and California in the Pacific 10 standings but trailing the schools in every tournament straw poll.

“I just don’t understand the logic there,” Bibby said.

If Bibby wanted logic, he should have applied for the Caltech job.

This is the new NCAA tournament, the billion-dollar spectacle, a 64-school cat fight narrated by Jim Nance. They don’t just roll out the ball anymore.

They even televise the pairings now.

If the NCAA took the best 64 teams, USC would be in and 11-18 Fairfield would be out. But, let’s face it, Fairfield makes better television.

Forget the old benchmarks of wins and losses and latch on to the post-Wooden concepts: Ratings Percentage Index, record against top 100 opponents, strength of schedule against nonconference opponents in months ending in R, record in last 10 games--you get the drift.

Those are the numbers that can get you thrown into or out of an NCAA tournament.

RPI? It’s a computer ratings system used by the NCAA since 1981 to help assist in selection and seeding.

Bibby says that USC, at 11-5 in the Pac-10 and 16-9 overall, deserves to be an at-large NCAA selection, yet most prognosticators do not have the Trojans in their projected fields.

“We played well against Arizona, Stanford and Cal [teams] that are looking really good and everyone says they are a lock getting into the tournament,” Bibby said Tuesday. “So, if those three teams are a lock, along with UCLA, then you should take five teams. We should be one of of those teams.”

But since there is no guarantee the NCAA selection committee is going take five, USC bounces nervously on the bubble.

A sweep of Washington and Washington State this weekend certainly would help.

A split might do it. In fact, the last team to finish 12-6 in the Pac-10 and not make the NCAA tournament was UCLA in 1988. In the ‘90s, only one team with 11 conference victories--Arizona State in 1993--has been denied a berth.

But it could happen to USC. Here’s how:

UCLA already has clinched the Pac-10’s automatic berth.

Arizona is tied for second with USC at 11-5 but is also an NCAA lock, as is California at 10-6.

How so? Arizona played a superior nonconference schedule, defeating North Carolina and Utah, top-10 teams.

One of the factors the selection committee weighs is a team’s record against top-100 teams, using the RPI index as a guide. Arizona is 10-7 against the top 100 (4-2 nonconference) and ranked 17th in the latest RPI.

Case closed.

Cal? The Bears are 10-6 against the top 100, with victories over Iowa, Massachusetts and Illinois, and maintain a 21 RPI ranking.

USC is 6-8 versus top 100 teams, 47 in the RPI and did not defeat a ranked nonconference opponent. The Trojans did, however, lose to Tennessee and were blown out at home by Cincinnati.

Nonconference performance is crucial to an NCAA cause.

“What does a team do with a schedule it can control?” Terry Holland, chairman of the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee, asked Wednesday.

If the Pac-10 gets only four teams, the battle for the last spot will be between USC and Stanford.

Here, the Trojans can make a great case. Stanford remains one of the nation’s most overrated teams. The Cardinal is 10-6 and 18-7 overall, and two of its victories were at the expense of Division II Alaska Anchorage, which won’t factor in the NCAA’s judgment.

“There are 150 Division I schools that are not as good as Alaska Anchorage,” Stanford Coach Mike Montgomery argues.

Weak argument.

Stanford is 6-6 against top-100 opponents (0-1 in nonconference games), yet has maintained a top-25 ranking and remains a respectable 34th in the current RPI.

Rest assured, if Stanford sweeps Arizona and Arizona State this weekend at Maples Pavilion--the Cardinal is 10-0 at home--it will get any nod over USC.

“If we win two, we’re in,” Stanford guard Brevin Knight assessed.

That could leave the Trojans on the outside looking in.

Finishing ahead of Stanford or Cal in the Pac-10 standings does not mean much to the selection committee.

“Your place in the conference is not a major factor,” Holland said.

Is there anything USC can do?

Yes. Root hard for early exits of bubble teams in conference tournaments.

The more teams that fall out of contention, the more likely the NCAA will throw the Pac-10 another bid.

“I turn on ESPN and Fox Sports West every night, looking at different opinions, and I don’t see us,” bewildered Trojan guard Stais Boseman said.

Advice to USC for future NCAA runs: Buck up, beat UCLA every now and then, get UC Irvine off the schedule and have your RPI checked regularly.

MORE PAC ATTACK

Don’t be surprised if the season-ending injury to star guard Ed Gray has a major impact on California’s tournament seeding. The Bears, who appeared a solid No. 4 with Gray in the lineup, may slide all the way to a No. 8.

“I can’t tell you that a season-ending injury to a key player would keep a team from being selected or keep them from being seeded highly,” Holland said. “But I’d say it is a factor that each of our committee members has to consider.”

Coach Ben Braun can only hope the Bears sweep the Arizona schools this weekend and prove to the selection committee they are worthy of a high seeding despite the loss of their leading scorer.

“If we continue to play strong, and finish strong in league, I think everything will take care of itself,” Braun said. “I don’t anticipate any drastic movement.”

DOWN THE STRETCH

This is make-or-break week for several bubble teams sweating out Selection Sunday. Here are 10 schools on the hot seat:

1. Massachusetts (19-12, 11-5). The Dayton loss last week was a killer. The Minutemen have won five consecutive Atlantic 10 championships. If they make it six, they’re in.

2. Temple (18-9, 10-6). The Owls were 8-2 in their last 10 games before the Atlantic 10 tournament with impressive victories over Cincinnati, Louisville and Tulane.

3. Marquette (19-8, 9-5). The loss to Cincinnati last weekend hurt. The Golden Eagles have to show well in the Conference USA tournament to offset their weak 67 RPI ranking.

4. Michigan (18-11, 8-9). The Wolverines are conducting a clinic in how not to impress the NCAA committee. Michigan ended five-game losing streak with Wednesday’s victory over Northwestern and may get a bid anyway if it closes with a victory over Ohio State.

5. Purdue (16-11, 11-6). The Boilermakers are lacking in victories, but are No. 28 in the RPI. A win over Illinois this weekend should clinch a spot.

6. Syracuse (19-11, 9-9). Inexplicable home loss to Pitt last weekend makes a strong showing in the Big East tournament a must for the Orangemen.

7. West Virginia (19-8, 11-7). Quietly moved into tournament contention with a four-game winning streak to close the regular season. One more win in the Big East tournament gets the Mountaineers to 20 for the season and into the field of 64.

8. Oklahoma (17-9), 9-7). Sooners are 6-3 in last nine games but lost to Iowa State by 27. We suggest strongly scoring an upset in the Big 12 tournament.

9. Hawaii (20-6, 12-4). Great numbers, decent RPI (40), 11-2 in last 13 games but an easy team for the NCAA to snub. The Rainbows will battle for an at-large spot with fellow Western Athletic bubble sitters Fresno State (20-10, 12-4) and Nevada Las Vegas (20-8, 11-5).

10. Southwest Missouri State (24-8, 12-6). Yes, Steve Alford’s team lost the Missouri Valley title to Illinois State, but don’t be surprised if the NCAA takes the Bears as an at-large.

LOOSE ENDS

Oregon Coach Jerry Green says it will be a joke if the Pac-10 doesn’t get five teams in the NCAA tournament.

Why the lack of respect?

“Our games aren’t over before the East Coast people get the scores on line out there,” Green says.

Oregon (16-10) didn’t exactly help the Pac-10 cause when it turned ordinary after a 10-0 start.

Arizona Coach Lute Olson says the league should look inward. “I think our conference as a whole needs to look at our nonconference schedules,” he said. “Our nonconference schedules are not as tough as some of the other top leagues.”

The Pac-10 should be outraged if it gets four teams and the Big Ten gets six. The Big Ten is 3-11 in the last two tournaments and has not advanced a team to the Sweet 16 since 1994. The Pac-10 has advanced a team to the round of 16 the last nine years.

First-round NCAA prediction: UCLA versus St. Mary’s in the West.

Prediction II: UCLA senior forward Charles O’ Bannon will win the Pac-10 player-of-the-year award, using his late-season NBA salary drive to overtake Stanford’s Knight and Cal’s Gray. Kansas and Minnesota are locks for No. 1 seedings, but the other two top spots are up for grabs. Expect them to go to tournament champions in the Atlantic Coast (Duke, Wake Forest or North Carolina) and Southeastern (South Carolina or Kentucky) conferences.

Outraged that your team didn’t make the tournament? Send your complaints to the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee: Holland, Virginia; DeLoss Dodds, Texas; McKinley Boston Jr., Minnesota; Rudy A. Davalos, New Mexico; Charles S. Harris, Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference; Craig D. Thompson, Sun Belt Conference; C.M. Newton, Kentucky; Michael Tranghese, Big East Conference, and Carroll M. Williams, Santa Clara.