Demise of Manual Transmission Could Be Around the Corner

Step on the clutch, push the gearshift left and up into first, then gently press the gas pedal as you let up on the clutch and the engine grabs the wheels.

Get to the friction point--then hold it--as the engine engages and you’re finally moving forward.

Mastering the fine art of the stick shift was the hardest part of learning to drive for car enthusiast Bill Todd, who said he practiced on his neighbor’s Plymouth convertible in 1958 when he was 13.

It’s an art that could fade soon as more consumers decide that pushing the clutch and shifting the stick isn’t worth the hassle, and auto makers respond to concerns about fuel emissions and customer preferences.

For Todd, a California businessman who owns two manual transmission Dodge Vipers, that’s a loss.

“Taking away the manual transmission takes away the fun and excitement,” he said. “We’re going to raise a bunch of people that have no coordination between their hands and their feet.”

Others say automatics just make life easier.

At a Nissan dealership in Southfield, Cynthia Ford expressed the sentiments of many American drivers as she considered buying a new Pathfinder sport utility vehicle. She usually alternates between a manual and automatic, but this year is considering getting her second automatic in a row.

“With an automatic, it’s get in and go,” she said. “A stick requires a little concentration.”

Even Todd admits, as far as everyday driving is concerned, “you kind of wonder after a long day if you really want this manual.”

As the technology improved, the number of automatic transmissions in U.S. cars jumped from 43.1% in 1949 to 70.3% in 1955. In 1995, 88.2% of U.S. cars and 80.2% of light trucks were automatics.

While the percentage of car buyers who buy manuals has been stable in recent years, the number of cars available with a stick shift probably will decline in the next decade, according to a University of Michigan survey of industry executives.

There are several reasons, including the trend toward increased leasing. One-quarter of all new vehicles were leased in 1994. By 2005, that figure is expected to increase to 39%, according to the university survey.

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Automakers that lease rely on the car’s resale value after it is used for two or more years to make a profit. Cars with automatic transmissions are easier to sell.

“Some leasing companies won’t lease manuals,” said Bernard Robertson, vice president of engineering technologies and general manager of Jeep and trucks for Chrysler Corp. “If there isn’t a huge market, then residual value drops off.”

There’s also the pollution factor. Manual transmission cars tend to pollute more on average than automatics because each driver shifts his or her manual transmissions differently, and not always at the optimal point.

With increasing government demands for less pollution in the future, “emissions standards are going to tend to make manuals a challenge,” he said. “We may not offer a manual in California because of the more stringent emissions standards out there.”

And between talking on a cellular phone, negotiating traffic, eating breakfast and reading last night’s report from the office, drivers don’t need any more distractions.

“With the commutes and the traveling, we do a lot more in our cars than just drive,” Saturn spokesman Greg Martin said.

Even 71% of those drivers who bought a ’96 Chevrolet Corvette, a car designed for driving enthusiasts, opted for an automatic over the six-speed manual transmission, though the cost was the same.

Transmission supplier Borg Warner Automotive is selling its North American manual transmission business to a Mexican company. The reason: The business lost money in four of the past five years.

Some auto makers are trying to give car buyers transmissions that combine the best of an automatic and manual--a manually shiftable automatic. The driver can let the transmission operate automatically, or manually shift gears without a clutch.

While the feature has been offered for quite some time in limited amounts or on expensive European cars, more and more average-priced models are now featuring the option. Chrysler offers several models with its Autostick. Honda offers its version, called SportShift, on its 1997 Prelude.

“People are just wanting things convenient and with less hassle,” said Mike Donoughe, an executive engineer at Chrysler and co-inventor of the Autostick. “A lot of people look at manual as being a hassle.”

While Donoughe said people who would normally drive an automatic have no use for the feature, stick drivers have given it positive reviews.

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In the future, technology will further blur the distinction between automatics and manuals, said Ian Slater, a spokesman for Ford Motor Co.’s product development group.

People drive in highly varied conditions, from crowded city traffic to open country roads. For each of those situations, Slater said drivers may want different options.

Manuals are much more popular in Europe and elsewhere overseas. There, fuel costs two to three times more than what it does in the United States, so drivers look for the best fuel economy.

In addition, “Europeans have this driving culture, a perception that with an automatic transmission, you lose your own personal control of the vehicle,” said Barb Proctor, powertrain marketing manager for General Motors Corp.

Though manual transmissions will become rarer in the U.S., auto makers are likely to continue offering at least some cars for driving enthusiasts who refuse to give up the thrill and control they feel running through the gears.

Even Donoughe, the co-inventor of the Autostick, said he still prefers the feel of a clutch and stick.

“I’ll confess,” he said. “I’d choose a manual every time.”