Sanchez Widens Lead Over Dornan if New Vote Held

If a new election were held today, Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) would again defeat Republican Robert K. Dornan, but this time the margin would likely be far greater than in November, according to a Times Orange County Poll conducted this week.

Dornan, whose contentions of widespread fraud have prompted a congressional investigation, was particularly unpopular among Latino voters.

An 18-year veteran of Congress, Dornan lost to Sanchez by 984 votes out of more than 93,000 cast in the central county district that includes most of Anaheim, Garden Grove and Santa Ana and parts of Tustin, Irvine, Fullerton, Orange and Fountain Valley.

He immediately complained that the election was marred by fraud, including voting by noncitizens, double voting and other irregularities. A congressional hearing on the contentions will be held in Santa Ana on Saturday.

Support for Dornan appears to have eroded since November’s election cliffhanger, according to the Times Orange County Poll, which was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. Among all voters in the district, 49% said they would choose Sanchez in a new election, while 36% would vote for Dornan. Another 15% said they were undecided or would vote for another candidate.

Only 22% of Latinos supported Dornan, while 66% supported Sanchez.

The margin tightened to 47% for Sanchez and 39% for Dornan among likely voters, or those who have voted frequently in the past four years. However, as pollster Baldassare pointed out, that category does not take into account new citizens, who could be highly motivated to vote in a special election and who appear to overwhelmingly favor Sanchez.

“Nobody really knows if, in a special election, you would have some new dynamic taking place because of highly mobilized new citizens,” Baldassare said.

Among the 1,000 registered voters of the 46th Congressional District who were polled in the telephone survey, support for a special election was weak: Half thought it was a bad idea, 37% favored it and another 12% were unsure. Many of the respondents who agreed to be re-interviewed by The Times objected to the high cost of a special election, particularly because the congressional term lasts only two years.

The poll was conducted April 10-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Despite the lower number favoring a new election, 62% approved of the congressional hearings, if only to clear the air. “I think it’s a waste of time, but I guess without it, he’s never going to be satisfied,” said Loretta Alba, a Democrat from Anaheim who voted for Sanchez.

Dornan supporters, on the other hand, said they hoped the hearings would provide enough evidence to force a new election.

“I’d bet a substantial amount of money there were enough bad votes to change the election,” said Charles Ward, a Republican from Anaheim. “We need to get to the bottom of it.”

Opinions also were mixed on the plausibility of Dornan’s contentions: 45% of all registered voters said they found contentions of “widespread illegal voting” to be believable, while 41% said they were not believable. The rest said they didn’t know.

Of those who said fraud was widespread, opinions differed as to whether it was extensive enough to change the outcome of the election. In telephone interviews, those who supported Sanchez generally thought she would have won without any fraudulent ballots cast, while Dornan supporters said the former congressman probably lost because of improper votes.

Subsequent interviews with some of those polled found a great cynicism toward elections in general, with many believing the election system is open to fraud.

“I think there are a certain amount of questionable votes in any election,” said Robert Levindofske, a Democrat from Anaheim.

If there was fraud, said Democrat Connie Mitroff of Anaheim, “I don’t feel it’s the first time it’s happened and I’m not convinced there was enough to overturn the election.”

And Shelly David, an Independent voter from Anaheim, said, “What purpose would it serve for people to be fraudulently voting unless they’re working for the government? Maybe [Dornan staffers] were stuffing the boxes and trying to get their way. It could happen. I really don’t have much faith in the government anymore.”

Latinos and non-Latinos differed greatly in their opinions of Sanchez, Dornan and Dornan’s contentions.

On the issue of whether they believed Dornan’s contentions of “widespread” illegal voting, for example, only 34% of Latinos said Dornan’s allegations were believable, compared to 49% of all others.

Dornan scored low marks with Latinos on popularity, with only 27% saying they held a “favorable opinion” of him and 48% saying their opinion was “unfavorable.” Overall, 35% of registered voters in the district thought highly of Dornan.

In contrast, Sanchez’s ratings from Latinos was “like hero stuff,” said Baldassare, professor of urban and regional planning at UC Irvine.

Of Latino voters, 56% said they had a favorable opinion of Sanchez to only 14% unfavorable. Overall, she had a 42% approval rating, with 25% holding an unfavorable opinion. One-third of voters in the district said they hadn’t formed an opinion of Sanchez, which is normal for a new member of Congress, Baldassare said.

Also noteworthy was the relatively low approval rating Dornan earned from members of his own party. A slight majority of Republicans--53%--said they had a favorable opinion of Dornan, while 30% had an unfavorable one. And 17% said they didn’t know. “Bob Dornan has been around for many terms,” Baldassare said. “That may be a reflection of knowing him, but not really knowing what to think of him.”

In interviews, several Republicans said they had grown weary of Dornan in recent years and were unhappy with his behavior since the election.

“We all think he’s acting like a sorehead,” said Beverly Schlinger of Anaheim. “How many years has this guy been in office? It’s only right to let someone else have a chance, and she did win. Lately his personality hasn’t appealed to me at all. I think he’s a big blowhard.”

Among Democrats, the feelings were even more intense.

“In some cases, [Dornan] may be right, but as far as I’m concerned, he’s acting like a sore loser,” said Preston Hunter of Anaheim. “This just reinforces my opinion of him. On Loretta Sanchez, I think the jury’s still out, but she’s such an improvement over Dornan that it’s good to have made the change. I certainly hope we never go back to Dornan in the district.”

But Dornan does enjoy continued loyalty from some long-term supporters.

“One thing you’ve got to say for Bob, he’s a true American,” said Republican Margaret Davis of Orange. “When I had things with my son in the Vietnam War, he always went to bat for him. Now, I think by guarding our election rules, he’s telling people to watch. He likes America and he’s going to watch out for it.”

Said Charles Ward, “He got screwed, and I’m tired of these characters coming over here and getting away with murder. . . . If they’re doing a good job, I don’t care if the election’s crooked or not. And Dornan has done a lot of good things.”

Several Latino voters interviewed said they were worried by the focus on immigrant voters by state and local investigators, and believe an element of racism was at work.

“That’s what everybody is saying, that they think it’s racist,” said Loretta Alba. “I think she fairly won it, because there was widespread support among the families. Every one of my brothers and sisters voted for her, and on my husband’s side it was the same thing.

“But I understand, he got beat out by a woman, and she’s Hispanic, and he doesn’t like that.”

A joint investigation by Secretary of State Bill Jones and Orange County Dist. Atty. Michael R. Capizzi, both of whom are scheduled to testify at Saturday’s hearing, have focused on alleged voting by noncitizens.

As part of the investigation, records were seized from Hermandad Mexicana Nacional, a Latino rights group that helped thousands of immigrants become citizens last year and that also ran an aggressive voter registration drive. The names of voters registered by Hermandad are also being compared to federal immigration records.

Jones recently said he found evidence of 303 improperly cast ballots in the 46th District. They included people who voted or who registered to vote before taking the oath of citizenship.

The investigation has generated a great deal of publicity since late December and several of the polled voters said they were anxious for the probe to end.

“If something else is going to happen, I just would like for everyone to come to an agreement and settle this thing once and for all,” said John Rivera, a Democrat from Orange. “A lot of people would like to see that happen.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Sanchez Still the Choice

If they had to do over again, voters in Orange County’s 46th Congressional District say they would still elect Rep. Loretta Sanchez:

If the election were held today, would you vote for:

Loretta Sanchez: 49%

Bob Dornan: 36%

Other: 5%

Don’t know: 10%

Source: Times Orange County Poll

Hearings, Yes; Election, No

Voters in the 46th Congressional District are split over former Rep. Robert Dornan’s contentions of widespread illegal voting in the election he lost, with opinions divided along ethnic and political lines. While voters strongly approve of Congress holding hearings on Dornan’s accusations, they do not favor a new election:

*

Do you think the claims of widespread illegal voting in the election in your district are believable or not believable?

Believable: 45%

Not Believable: 41%

Don’t know: 14%

****

*--*

Not Don’t Believable believable know Latino 34% 49% 17% Other* 49% 38% 13% Republican 61% 27% 12% Democrat 33% 51% 16% Other 40% 48% 12% Vote Sanchez 20% 67% 13% Vote Dornan 78% 11% 11%

*--*

****

Do you approve or disapprove of the House holding hearings on the claims of illegal voting in your district?

Approve: 62%

Disapprove: 29%

Don’t know: 9%

****

*--*

Don’t Approve Disapprove know Latino 52% 38% 10% Other* 65% 26% 9% Republican 77% 15% 8% Democrat 50% 42% 8% Other 63% 25% 12% Claims believable 86% 10% 4% Claims not believable 39% 53% 8% Vote Sanchez 43% 49% 8% Vote Dornan 89% 6% 5%

*--*

****

Do you favor or oppose having a new election between Dornan and Sanchez?

Favor: 37%

Oppose: 51%

Don’t know: 12%

****

*--*

Don’t Favor Oppose know Latino 33% 57% 10% Other* 39% 49% 12% Republican 50% 36% 14% Democrat 26% 64% 10% Other 40% 51% 9% Approve hearings 53% 36% 11% Disapprove hearings 10% 85% 5%

*--*

* Mostly white

****

Dornan Viewed Unfavorably

Dornan has a high negative rating, with nearly half the district’s voters holding unfavorable views of him. Sanchez is viewed more positively, though a large number are still unsure of their new representative.

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of:

*--*

Dornan Sanchez Favorable 35% 42% Unfavorable 46% 25% Don’t know 19% 33%

*--*

****

*--*

Dornan Sanchez Favor- Unfavor- Don’t Favor- Unfavor- Don’t able able Know able able Know Latino 27% 48% 25% 56% 14% 30% Other* 37% 45% 18% 37% 28% 35% Republican 53% 30% 17% 25% 39% 36% Democrat 19% 61% 20% 55% 15% 30% Other 35% 41% 24% 41% 21% 38%

*--*

Source: Times Orange County Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The random telephone survey of 1,000 registered voters in the 46th Congressional District was conducted April 10-13 on weekday nights and weekend days. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish as needed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For subgroups, such as Republicans or likely voters, the margin of error is larger. The likely voters are defined as those who have frequently voted in the past four years.