Israel’s Pullout Decision, in Reality, Is Only Theory

At its most basic level, this week’s decision by the Israeli Cabinet to approve the hand-over of more West Bank land to the Palestinians was significant.

Sixteen members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition voted to give Yasser Arafat’s Palestinian Authority control over a larger area of occupied territory. Two hard-line Cabinet opponents abstained, and the government, without a single objection, confirmed Israel’s commitment to trading land for peace with the Palestinians.

So why are the Palestinians, Israel’s peace partners, denouncing the decision as a trick? The Americans, who have been pressing the two sides to make progress, also have been underwhelmed, with the State Department giving the vote only a cautious welcome.

The answer, in part, is that the Cabinet action, as Israeli commentators noted this week, was a non-decision. The Cabinet agreed to a withdrawal only in theory, leaving open the scope, location and timing of the pullout and linking its implementation to Netanyahu’s presentation of a concrete plan for a final peace settlement.

The decision also was couched in tough conditions, with the pullout contingent on Palestinians fulfilling all obligations under existing peace deals, including greater efforts to fight terrorism and the completion of a revision of the Palestinian National Charter, a politically sensitive issue that Arafat has been loath to tackle.

Hard-line legislators such as Hanan Porat of the National Religious Party said openly that they had no qualms about the Cabinet vote because they were certain the proposal’s conditions are impossible for the Palestinians to meet.

Meantime, after months of deadlocked negotiations, relations between the Palestinians and Israel are at a nadir; each side accuses the other of bad faith and systematic violations of the interim peace deals. Four years into a step-by-step process that was intended to build confidence, neither side trusts the other.

Adding to the credibility problems is the fact that, even as Netanyahu has made his offer to cede more territory to the Palestinians, his government has stepped up construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, creating “facts on the ground” that will make surrendering the land more difficult.

Land is the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel has full control over 73% of the occupied territory and security control in all but 3%.

Netanyahu wants to go forward with only one of the promised three-stage troop pullbacks from the West Bank before engaging the Palestinians in accelerated talks on a permanent peace agreement.

But the Palestinians have been wary of that proposal, saying they fear Netanyahu is trying to evade obligations in the interim accords, including the troop withdrawals.

Peace Now--an Israeli activist group that tracks construction in the settlements, which it views as an obstacle to peace--says a recent survey of Jewish settlements reveals Netanyahu’s strategy: to strengthen Israel’s hold on Jerusalem, expand the Jewish presence in the West Bank and blur the “green line” that divides the West Bank from Israel ahead of final status talks with the Palestinians.

In recent weeks, the government has approved a flurry of permits for new housing in the West Bank, said Peace Now director Mossi Raz. Overall, Netanyahu’s government has approved building about 5,000 apartments in the West Bank since mid-1996, a pace well ahead of previous governments, Raz said.

On Tuesday, with details of Israeli plans for a troop pullback and a final settlement beginning to leak out, Israel and the Palestinians jockeyed for political advantage.

Israel, which already has sent officials to Egypt to seek support from President Hosni Mubarak for its latest proposal, dispatched Netanyahu foreign policy advisor Uzi Arad to Washington. In Washington, Secretary of State Madeline Albright said she will meet with Netanyahu in Paris this weekend. Arafat met with Jordanian Prime Minister Abdul Salam Majali and sent his deputy, Abu Mazen, to Jerusalem for talks with Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy.

But Arafat and Netanyahu, who had what an Arafat aide called a “brief, businesslike” phone call Monday night, also kept up a war of words Tuesday.

Netanyahu repeated his warning that if the Palestinians unilaterally declare an independent state, Israel will annex parts of the West Bank. Arafat, who has said he will declare a Palestinian state in May 1999, reacted in dismissive fashion, telling reporters: “It should be clear to everyone that the state of Palestine exists and its capital will be, God willing, Jerusalem.” He added that he hoped America will push to break the peace talk deadlock, “despite Israeli obstinance.”

The peace talks have been at a standstill since March, when Palestinians rejected as far too small a proposed Israeli withdrawal from about 2% of the West Bank. The crisis deepened with Israel’s decision to launch a new housing project in traditionally Arab East Jerusalem and with a deadly series of suicide bombings by Islamic militants last summer.

The withdrawal being considered now--which includes the first and second phases planned under peace accords--may include 10% to 12% of the territory, Israeli officials said.

Media accounts have said the areas likely to be turned over are outside the cities of Hebron, Janin and Nablus, which already are under total or predominantly Palestinian control. The pullback could leave several small Jewish settlements as islands in regions of Palestinian autonomy.

Maps were being made final for Cabinet discussions, scheduled to start as early as today, aimed at coming up with guidelines for final status talks. Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordecai and Infrastructure Minister Ariel Sharon are expected to present their ideas to a committee that includes Netanyahu and Levy.

Sharon, the hawkish former general who has muscled his way to a central role in outlining Israel’s strategy with the Palestinians, has called for Israel to retain control of parallel “security zones” running nearly the length of the country. Several main roads would link the two zones, and Israel would retain control over all settlements, water sources and other vital interests.

Palestinian officials generally are reluctant to state which areas are their highest priorities. Officially, they expect talks to bring them the return of 90% of the West Bank. Privately, they say that percentage matters less than location but that they are seeking contiguous, not isolated, chunks of land. That position received support Tuesday from Peace Now, which said Israel should give Palestinians control of 50% of the West Bank before moving to final status discussions.

Maher Abukhater of The Times’ Jerusalem Bureau contributed to this report.