Clinton Set to Extend U.S. Troops’ Bosnian Mission Well Beyond June

President Clinton is expected to announce today that U.S. military forces will remain in Bosnia well beyond June 30, when the current mandate for their deployment as part of a multinational peace implementation force expires.

“In principle, we think the U.S. ought to participate in what takes place next,” explained a senior White House official.

The official said the president will not announce troop levels or other details today, but will make clear the troops will remain.

Clinton’s announcement will come just three days before he travels to Bosnia-Herzegovina to thank the 8,000 U.S. soldiers stationed there for their sacrifices in maintaining peace in the region.

NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels earlier this week ordered military planners to work on details for extending the Bosnia mission.

Following that and other hints of an extended mission from senior members of the administration, Clinton’s decision is hardly a surprise. But it ends the uncertainty that has surrounded the future of the Bosnia mission and eases worries in Europe of a U.S. withdrawal. So deep has U.S. involvement grown in Bosnia that a U.S. pullout effectively would have destroyed the peace mission.

Clinton is likely to cite several reasons for the extension, including vital U.S. interest in sustaining the fragile peace that has held in the region since the United States and many of its closest allies deployed forces to Bosnia nearly two years ago. His advisors have been laying out this argument for months in preparation for the announcement.

The United States has so far invested about $8 billion for rebuilding the war-torn country and supporting 1995 peace accords that brought about both a shaky political agreement and the troops to enforce it. Many observers believe that those accords mark the only real chance for regional stability.

But another factor has been pivotal to Clinton’s decision: both the relative success of a mission that was perceived at its outset as highly risky and the lack of American casualties have sharply reduced opposition in Congress to extending the U.S. deployment.

Analysts who only a few months ago predicted that an attempt to extend the U.S. military involvement in Bosnia would likely fail are today equally confident of success.

Last summer, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters he believed that only strong presidential lobbying could overcome Senate opposition to an extension.

But at a Nov. 5 White House meeting with the president, congressional leaders seemed to give him the green light he sought for extending the mission.

“There was not one vote of dissent,” said Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.), who attended the meeting.

“It’s not a huge controversy now; nobody’s getting killed,” a Senate Democratic aide commented Wednesday. “But there’s always going to be skepticism because it’s hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel.”

Support for the extension is not unanimous. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) was grumbling Wednesday after meeting with the president.

“I have real reservations about staying in Bosnia,” Specter said.

He challenged the administration’s claims that the mission has made a deep difference. “I have not seen evidence that when we leave there will be peace there,” Specter told reporters.

White House Press Secretary Mike McCurry bristled at the suggestion that the U.S. mission is anything but clear.

“That does a disservice to the people who are bravely serving there under superb military command, under the direction of a commander in chief who has repeatedly stated the precise goals and objectives of the mission,” he said.

Specter’s skepticism is shared more broadly in the House than in the Senate. But the House has only rarely used its power to cut off funding for a U.S. military mission once the troops are deployed.

In October, after a trip to the region, a bipartisan House International Relations Committee staff report concluded that continued U.S. involvement in Bosnia was critical to maintaining peace in the region.

“The report was received uncomfortably but well by Republican members,” commented one staffer. “I’d be very surprised if there was any momentum to cut off funds at this stage.”

According to European and U.S. officials familiar with discussions about the nature of an extended mission, it is highly unlikely the European allies will take on a greater share of the military burden. The 8,000 U.S. troops presently in Bosnia serve as part of the 30,000-strong stabilization force, known as SFOR, meaning that between one-third and a quarter of a new force would be made up of Americans.

“It’s unsure how big the new force will be, but there is agreement that the proportion of Europeans to Americans will stay the same,” commented one European official, who declined to be named.

However, this source said European countries reportedly have agreed to increase support in key areas viewed by the U.S. as crucial.

They have committed to provide more financial and materiel backing for the international police task force and also to expand its size and its role. According to one participant at a meeting of North Atlantic Treaty Organization foreign ministers in Brussels this week, several countries--including Norway, Belgium and The Netherlands--promised to contribute additional funds, technical expertise and equipment to boost effectiveness of the international police force.

The size of this force will jump from its present strength of 1,720 to around 2,700. Its mandate of training local police also will be expanded, giving it authority to take action against rampant corruption, drug-running and smuggling in Bosnia. The United States views a strong police force as a key to eventually ending the mission.

The Europeans also have agreed to boost financial support for other U.S. priorities, including the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague and the overall civilian effort to rebuild Bosnian society.

“The Europeans seem to understand this is important to keep the Americans on board,” said the European official.

Clinton plans to leave for Bosnia on Sunday to share holiday greetings with the troops. He and his entourage, which will include members of Congress, are expected to be on the ground for only 12 to 14 hours Monday and leave before dark. He is expected to visit Tuzla, the main base for U.S. troops, and Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital.