Some Dark Spots Blur the ‘Rosa Mexicano’

After so many years of criticizing and complaining about Mexican elections, it is hardly surprising that last Sunday’s vote has been hailed by Mexicans and foreigners, government and opposition, left and right, markets and pundits as a milestone on Mexico’s road to democracy.

The election was far freer and fairer than ever before; the opposition picked up significant victories, ranging from Cuauhtemoc Crdenas’ triumph in Mexico City to the center-right PAN’s wins in Nuevo Len and Queretaro; the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) was seriously weakened, and everyone rejoiced over the country’s “democratic fiesta”.

Rightly so: The country’s authoritarian political system outlived its welcome a long time ago, and the degree of unpopularity and discredit accrued by the PRI over the years greatly warranted its defenestration.

It also is true that after long periods of lackluster or openly unstatesmanlike conduct by its leaders--official and opposition--Mexico was treated to a banquet of civility and vision last Sunday evening, by winners and losers alike. Everything seemed to have turned for the better in a country that sorely needed a strong dose of optimism and good luck.

This “rosa mexicano” scenario is undoubtedly justified. But it nonetheless passes over lingering shadows and doubts that with time could seriously compromise Mexico’s definitive entry into an era of representative democracy.

The first and most important question has to do with the persistent predemocratic peculiarities of Mexican elections. As with all countries emerging from authoritarian rule, the emphasis of all postelectoral comment was on process, not on the outcome. Everyone speaks to and congratulates others on the cleanliness and undisputed nature of the vote, much less than on who won what, where and why. By contrast, for example, in the most recent eventful elections elsewhere--the French vote six weeks ago-- what mattered was who won, who lost and what victory and defeat implied for all concerned.

In Mexico, scant attention was paid to the actual results of the election, with the exception of Crdenas’ victory in Mexico City and the triumph of PAN (the Party of National Action) in the governorship races in Nueva Len and Queretaro. While emphasis on the high-profile races is understandable, it can lead to misapprehensions.

Too little scrutiny was given to the actual numbers in the congressional contests. And in fact, despite initial claims that the PRI had, after nearly 70 years of uninterrupted rule, finally lost control of the lower house of Congress, this may not be so. It appears that thanks to the arcane provisions of the electoral legislation, the PRI will obtain between 240 and 245 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives.

Together with the six to eight seats won by the Workers’ Party--a straw party under the PRI’s thumb--the ruling party may well have a working majority in the lower house. This is all the more likely if one adds a couple of congressmen from the Green Party who probably are available for the PRI as well as a sprinkling of deputies from Crdenas’ center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution who may be tempted by the system’s offers of the good life.

In addition, given the Mexican opposition’s remarkable propensity to be absent from congressional roll calls, it seems likely that President Ernesto Zedillo and the PRI will be able to ensure passage on issues such as the budget, corruption investigations, new economic reforms and other important presidential initiatives without negotiating with either the PRD or the PAN.

PRI may not have to resort to its broader “working majority” often, and perhaps there will be more horse trading than before in the House. But its control was certainly not lost, and there is all the difference in the world between having a working majority, however small, and not having one.

A second dark spot on last Sunday’s balloting has to do with regional patterns. In part of the north and in Mexico City and the surrounding area, the results were divided: PRD or PAN majorities, with a strong PRI generally in second place. There were some congressional seats for each party. But in the more rural, peripheral states run by the so-called governors’ syndicate, generally associated with strong-arm tactics and/or former President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, things were different: 10 of 12 districts for the PRI in Chiapas, six of seven in Hidalgo, all 11 in Oaxaca, all 15 in Puebla, all six in Tabasco, 20 of 23 in Veracruz, all five in Zacatecas.

The opposition whimpered and filed a handful of protests here and there, but basically accepted this tacit quid pro quo: The PRI would continue to win elections “the old-fashioned way” in the heartland, but PAN and PRD could win fair and square in the biggest cities.

Initial euphoria over the promise of the process and the high-profile anti-establishment victories disguised the PRI’s silver lining: After 2 1/2 years of the country’s worst economic crisis in memory, and unending scandals of corruption, murder and treason, the incumbent party not only retained nearly 40% of the national vote and a virtual working majority in Congress, but also is well-positioned for the millennial presidential race.

Thanks to the unwillingness and inability of PAN and the PRD to forge an alliance against the PRI and the system, the prospect of a three- or four-way race in 2000 seems likely. In such a contest, the PRI’s rock-hard third of the vote, together with the fact that it is the only party truly present everywhere in the country, endows it with far better chances for success than its record or bad press suggest.

So while Mexico made a great step forward last Sunday, holding clean elections and allowing the opposition to occupy key positions in the political system is not change enough for solving the country’s ancestral plagues of inequality, corruption, authoritarian culture and--for the past 15 years--economic stagnation. Still, without last Sunday’s vote the country would be further than ever from addressing these problems; the election may be an indication that Mexico might begin the next century on the right foot.