Chaos Again Is Order Of the Day

The hope now is for total bedlam--a split national title, public outrage, fans up in arms, fans up on the arms of goal posts, the USA TODAY/ESPN coaches’ poll filing a lawsuit against the Associated Press poll.

Here’s to indignation across the nation, nine schools finishing with one defeat--don’t laugh, it could happen--and a football fiefdom divided by sportswriters who favor schools with the best press box food and anonymous coaches who let sports information directors do their voting--unless there’s a chance to personally stick it to Florida Coach Steve Spurrier.

True story: Last week, Penn State Coach Joe Paterno mistakenly voted Florida State No. 1 instead of Michigan because an office staffer incorrectly marked the coach’s ballot.

Last August, it was written under this column heading: “This is the last year in college football that everything can go to Lubbock in a handbasket and, rest assured, it will.” Lubbock was a lucky guess. Who could have known Texas Tech would be poised to win the Big 12 South Division but then recuse itself from the conference title game and bowl considerations in the wake of recent NCAA violations?

The rest was common sense.

Any sport that rejects a playoff system in favor of selecting its champion the way Romanian judges determine gold and silver medal winners is, in most cases, asking for trouble.

This is a lame duck season in college football, the last before the Rose Bowl joins the alliance and supposedly puts an end to this chaos.

It was a perverse desire that the grand old game of Pop Warner and Amos Alonzo Stagg would royally muck things up one last time--just for old time’s sake.

Lucky us, things are shaping up not-so-nicely.

Should Michigan and Florida State win next week against Ohio State and Florida, respectively, No. 1 Michigan will not be allowed play No. 2 for the national title (The Associated Press’ version), nor will No. 1 Florida State get to play No. 2 Michigan (USA TODAY/ESPN coaches’ version).

The Wolverines would be bound to the Rose Bowl one last time, while the Seminoles would be off to the Orange Bowl.

This same Rose Bowl monkey wrench prevented No. 2 Arizona State from playing No. 1 Florida State for the title last year, and No. 2 Penn State from playing No. 1 Nebraska in 1994.

Even an Ohio State victory next week against Michigan does not necessarily save the Orange Bowl, which owns the first two picks in the alliance, because a Nebraska and/or Florida State loss likely vaults the No. 4 Buckeyes to No. 1 or No. 2. Even if Ohio State is not the Big Ten champion, it is contractually bound to the Rose Bowl.

The easiest thing to be said is there are five teams left with a chance to win the national title:

1. Michigan (10-0): The Wolverines can share at least a piece of the crown if they beat Ohio State next week and then win the Rose Bowl. It would be Michigan’s first national title since 1948 (really) and the Big Ten’s first since 1968 (really again). What Michigan wants: Florida to beat Florida State, putting the Wolverines No.1 in both polls entering the Rose Bowl.

2. Florida State (10-0): The Seminoles, who have won at least 10 games for a record 11 consecutive seasons, would probably share half the title if they beat Florida State and win the Orange Bowl. What Florida State wants: A Michigan loss against Ohio State, making the Seminoles No. 1 in both polls.

3. Nebraska (10-0): The No. 3 Cornhuskers might be expected to reclaim No. 1 if Florida State and Michigan lose next week and they beat Colorado on Nov. 28. Big problem, though. The Cornhuskers have a bye next week, and Ohio State would almost assuredly move ahead of Nebraska in the polls if it beats Michigan.

A safer route for Nebraska is for Florida State and Michigan to win next week. Then, provided Nebraska beats Colorado, the third-ranked Cornhuskers would meet No. 1 or No. 2 Florida State in the Orange Bowl. If Nebraska wins there, and Michigan losses in the Rose Bowl, the Cornhuskers win their third title in four years.

This is the formula Florida used to win it all last year, defeating No. 1 Florida State in the Sugar Bowl while No. 2 Arizona State lost in the Rose Bowl.

4. Ohio State (10-1): If the Buckeyes beat Michigan next week, and Florida State losses to Florida, isn’t Ohio State No. 1, even though the Buckeyes would have one loss while Nebraska would still be undefeated?

5. Tennessee (8-1): OK, this is a longshot, but here goes: The Volunteers win the SEC title, Nebraska loses to Colorado, Ohio State beats Michigan. No. 3 Tennessee then plays No. 1 Florida State in the Orange Bowl. The Volunteers beat the Seminoles, while Ohio State losses in the Rose Bowl.

Well, at least the Rose Bowl picture is clear at this point. Right?

Wrong.

Here’s the mixed-up deal in the Pacific 10 Conference. Three schools remain in the race, none controlling its fate. UCLA goes if it beats USC next week and Washington beats Washington State. Washington State wins a three-way tie with UCLA and Arizona State and a two-way tie with UCLA, but loses in a head-to-head against Arizona State. Arizona State returns to the Rose Bowl if USC beats UCLA and the Sun Devils beat Arizona on Nov. 28.

In the Big Ten, Michigan wins the title if it beats Ohio State next week. Ohio State wins if it beats Michigan and Penn State losses one of its last two games. Michigan wins a three-way tie with Ohio State and Penn State, but the Buckeyes would go to the Rose Bowl if they are ranked first or second in the polls.

Get it?