Ruling May Nudge Voters Toward Middle

At a time when California voters seem to be edging more toward the middle, a federal judge Monday gave that shift toward moderation a significant boost.

Pushed by moderate Republican Rep. Tom Campbell, the 1996 open primary initiative affirmed by U.S. District Judge David Levi on Monday was aimed at moving politics away from the edges and toward the middle.

Campbell hailed the ruling as opening up the primary process to a new group of independent voters and people who register to vote but don’t state a party preference. It’s a growing group that amounts to 10% of the state’s electorate, and as much as 13% in some areas.

Other political strategists are not so convinced that a new era has dawned, at least not yet. Voters--particularly in primary elections--tend to follow old habits, the skeptics say.

“We’ll see, but I’m skeptical that it will have much impact,” said Senate President Pro Tem Bill Lockyer, the main strategist the past two years for Democratic state Senate candidates. “The most intensely partisan and ideological people will still dominate the parties.”

At a minimum, the ruling, if it’s affirmed by the appellate courts, means that independents and people who register to vote but don’t state a party preference could vote in next June’s primary for candidates running for governor and U.S. senator and for the Assembly and state Senate.

Under the old rules, they were precluded from voting for candidates in primaries, and people who were affiliated with one party could not switch and vote for primary candidates from another party.

Political operatives and candidates were quick to offer analysis about Monday’s ruling.

Some said single issue groups such as pro-gun organizations might become more active in districts where they haven’t been involved before.

Bill Saracino, executive director of Gun Owners of California, said he may now start seeking pro-gun Democrats in districts where the group would have little chance of helping a pro-gun Republican win.

Others say wealthy candidates and incumbents would be the big winners, because they can raise and spend the money needed to woo crossover voters. Each consultant and candidate contacted insisted that the ruling is good for them.

The fact is, however, no one knows exactly how an open primary will play out.

“It’s going to change the dynamic of primary elections and that will affect both who’s going to win and how they go about conducting their campaigns,” said Bruce Cain, acting director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley.

The open primary case is one of three measures born of initiatives approved by the voters in recent years that are pending in the federal courts. The others seek to impose term limits on legislators and place strict limits on campaign financing and spending.

Each one on its own has major implications for California politics. Taken together, the three, if they withstand appeals, could transform the state’s political system.

In one of many potential twists, the open primary system could run counter to the intent of Proposition 208, the measure that seeks to restrict campaign fund-raising and spending.

Some believe that an open primary will cost more money, as candidates attempt to reach out to moderates from the opposite party and independents.

“I’m advising my caucus to redo their budgets to treat the primary as a general election,” said Assembly Republican Leader Bill Leonard (R-San Bernardino). “It could make the primary much more difficult to finance.

“Before, you went after your base of support in the primary,” Leonard said. “Now, you protect the base and poach in the other party. That to me is going to be the new strategy--if you can afford it.”

It also could mean a significant boost for wealthy candidates who can write their own checks. One such candidate is Al Checchi, former chairman of Northwest Airlines, who is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. Checchi would have the money needed to identify and target moderate Republicans and independents.

Similarly, Bill Carrick, consultant to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat who is considering running for governor, says the ruling will help her. “She has some appeal among independents and some Republicans,” Carrick said.

Morain reported from Sacramento and Barabak from San Francisco.