If the Census Is Faulty, the Cities Will Pay Dearly

When a congressional conference committee takes up the debate in coming days over how to conduct the 2000 census, the Senate version of the bill should prevail. That version would sensibly permit the Census Bureau to use scientifically sound sampling methods to augment the direct count, thus avoiding an undercount like the 1990 fiasco that probably cost California a couple of seats in the House of Representatives and up to $1 billion in federal population-based funding.

If conference action fails to eliminate the House ban on funding for statistical sampling, President Clinton needs to make good on his threat to veto the appropriations bill that funds the Commerce, State and Justice departments, a measure to which the House attached its sampling ban. House Republicans let the government shut down in a similar standoff last year. Are they prepared to do that again?

The Constitution requires a decennial census. This head count, which is nearly as old as this nation, is becoming increasingly inaccurate because of the changing face of America. The growth of hard-to-count populations such as immigrants, the urban poor and, in some areas, the rural poor frustrates an accurate tally where individuals are physically counted. The 1990 census missed 834,000 residents of California, according to a census study completed after the official count. That costly failure also denied many Californians the fundamental right to equal representation in Congress. That’s unjust.

The House GOP leadership opposes sampling, which is commonly used in public opinion polling, on the grounds that it falls short in terms of accuracy, constitutionality and safeguarding against political manipulation. In taking that position, the GOP disregards the scholarly assessment of the National Academy of Sciences.

Republicans call for a physical head count, which tends to favor affluent, married suburbanites--the traditional Republican voter base--over the poor, minorities, single people and transients who dominate many cities. Although the Justice Department in the last three administrations has interpreted the Constitution as allowing sampling, GOP leaders insist that the document specifies an actual enumeration and they refuse to proceed without a constitutional test in the Supreme Court.

On this issue, the Republicans aren’t constitutional purists, they’re partisans. The only heads they are counting are those in the GOP column. Ultimately this debate is not about population figures, it’s about politics. If all Americans are counted, according to some projections, additional congressional districts will be required in areas dominated by minorities and the poor, who traditionally vote Democratic. Changes in political boundaries could cost the GOP up to a dozen seats--and perhaps its majority in the House--some analysts say. Those are the numbers that fuel this partisan controversy.

If the Republican majority succeeds in forcing the Census Bureau to rely on outdated methods, the GOP will probably save several seats. But that victory would be achieved at the expense of a level playing field, especially in California. The California congressional delegation, Democrats and Republicans alike, should support the census takers in the effort to gain a complete count. Democracy is not served if the numbers don’t add up.