As Primary Nears, Race for Governor Up for Grabs

The race for California governor is wide open just seven weeks before the primary, with Democrats bunched in their closest nomination fight in a generation, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Businessman Al Checchi topped the Democratic field among registered voters with 23% support, compared with 19% for U.S. Rep. Jane Harman and 13% for Lt. Gov. Gray Davis.

Among the voters most likely to turn out for the June 2 primary, Harman (D-Torrance) was slightly ahead with 24% to Checchi’s 22% and Davis’ 13%. In both instances, the results fell within the survey’s margin of error, meaning the contest is essentially a dead heat.

“It’s anybody’s race at this point,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll.

The results demonstrate one of the bedrock fundamentals of California politics: the power of television advertising. Thanks to their media blitzes, Checchi and Harman, both debuting as statewide candidates, are now as familiar to California voters as veteran political figures Davis and Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren.

On the Republican side, Lungren is running without serious opposition--but not without serious danger signals for his candidacy. Lungren was drawing only 24% among registered voters under the state’s new free-for-all “blanket” primary, which seemed to benefit Checchi the most. The mega-millionaire businessman boasted support across the ideological spectrum that no other candidate matched.

Under the blanket primary system adopted by voters in 1996, any registered voter will be able to vote for any candidate of any party. In the past, voters could only cast ballots for members of their own party; independents and voters who declined to state a party preference were excluded from the primaries.

Lungren did slightly better among likely voters, pulling 28% support. More ominously, however, Lungren was winning barely half of the Republican vote--51%--losing 16% to Checchi, 9% to Harman and 6% to Davis.

Lungren also drew just 42% support among his fellow conservatives, while Checchi got 22%. Lungren won just 6% of Democratic support.

The attorney general trailed all three major Democratic hopefuls in prospective fall matchups, with Checchi leading 47% to 37%, Davis ahead 48% to 36% and Harman with 44% to Lungren’s 39%.

Among Democrats, Pinkus noted, the primary fight is the closest in California since at least 1974, when then-Secretary of State Edmund G. “Jerry” Brown Jr. won the primary over six other contenders. “Support is fluid, and the electorate could go any way in the next several weeks,” Pinkus said.

The poll was a survey of 1,409 adults statewide, including 1,105 registered voters and 566 likely voters, from April 4-9. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for registered voters and 4 points for those considered likely voters.

Checchi, a political newcomer who has waged the most extensive ad campaign in state political history, rocketed from 1% support among registered voters in a Times poll in October--before his ad blitz--to his nominal lead in the current survey.

Six months ago, 89% of voters had no impression of the former Northwest Airlines executive; in the latest survey, he was viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 22%.

“Checchi’s ads are clearly working for him,” Pinkus said. “Two-thirds of the electorate have seen his television spots, and exposure being as important as it is in California, that familiarity makes them more disposed to his candidacy.”

Among those who specifically recalled Checchi’s advertisements, 49% said the spots made them view him more favorably and 26% said less favorably.

Checchi’s ubiquitous TV presence may also explain his appeal across the political spectrum. He had 27% backing among self-described liberals and 22% support among self-described conservatives.

In contrast, Lungren was favored by 42% of conservatives and only 7% of liberals. Harman drew 30% of liberals and 11% of conservatives. Davis had the support of 16% of liberals and 6% of conservatives.

Harman was a late starter in the governor’s race, jumping into the contest virtually on the spur of the moment after Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein announced in February that she would not run. Harman immediately began an extensive TV ad campaign, which quickly powered her past Davis, who has been running for governor for more than three years but has yet to appear in TV ads.

Even more striking, the three-term South Bay congresswoman is now as well known to California voters as either Davis or Lungren, even though her statewide effort is only a few weeks old. By contrast, Davis has been involved in state politics for more than 20 years, and Lungren served 10 years in Congress before being elected twice to state office.

Harman was viewed favorably by 42% of voters and unfavorably by 19%. Davis garnered 51% favorable and 14% unfavorable; and Lungren, 45% favorable, 22% unfavorable.

Fifty-two percent of those who cited Harman’s television ads said the spots made them view her more favorably, while only 25% said less favorably.

Davis and Lungren, forced to husband their limited campaign resources, will almost certainly pick up support once they start TV advertisements.

“People really aren’t focused on the election at this point,” Pinkus said. “They’re being bombarded with ads by Checchi and Harman, and generally like what they see. But voters aren’t locked in at this point and are definitely shopping around.”

There was some marginally good news for Lungren.

The Republican hopeful had the most solid support in the survey among the four major gubernatorial hopefuls. Slightly more than half his backers, 52%, said they definitely planned to vote for the attorney general in the primary--which leaves 48% still open to another candidate.

Only 34% of Davis supporters had definitely made up their minds; 32% of Checchi supporters said they would stick with the candidate; and 27% of Harman’s backers were firmly fixed in their selection.

The survey results suggest that Checchi has reaped the greatest benefit from the state’s new blanket primary system. Among Democrats alone, he was slightly ahead with 28% to Harman’s 26% and Davis’ 20%.

But among registered voters, his support was bolstered by backing from Republicans, independents and voters who tend to be more conservative than the Democratic rank and file. Indeed, 46% of Lungren’s supporters said their second choice would be Checchi.

Checchi was leading among self-described independents with 29%, followed by Harman with 22%, Lungren with 13% and Davis with 7%. Among middle-of-the-road voters, Checchi and Lungren were tied at 21%, followed by Davis with 20% and Harman with 18%.

The survey turned up no significant gender gap--and no significant boost for Harman as the only female contender in the governor’s race.

Lungren was leading among male voters with 28%, followed by Checchi with 20%, Harman at 16% and Davis with 15%. Checchi was supported by 27% of female voters, followed by Harman with 22%, Lungren with 20% and Davis with 12%.

“The novelty of a woman running for office may have worn off a bit,” Pinkus said, noting that “Jane Harman is not a national figure the way Dianne Feinstein was the first time she ran for governor in 1990, or even to the extent that Kathleen Brown was when she ran in 1994.”

Among white voters, Lungren had 28% support, followed by Checchi with 20%, Harman with 19% and Davis with 12%. African Americans, who tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic, favored Checchi with 37%, followed by Davis with 22%, Harman with 21% and Lungren with 6%.

Checchi has made an aggressive effort to court the state’s growing Latino population--most notably with Spanish-language advertising--and it appears to be paying off. He drew 38% support among Latinos, followed by Harman with 15% and Davis with 9%. Lungren, who has also pledged to reach out to Latinos, received 14%.

Given a second choice for governor, 46% of Lungren’s supporters would vote for Checchi and 27% for Davis. Thirty-two percent of Checchi supporters would vote for Harman, 28% for Davis and 21% for Lungren.

Thirty-eight percent of Davis’ supporters would back Harman, 25% Checchi and 18% Lungren. Forty-six percent of Harman backers would favor Davis, 29% Checchi and 11% Lungren.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,409 adults in California, including 1,105 registered voters and 566 likely voters, by telephone April 4-9. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and 4 points for likely voters; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asians were interviewed and are part of the total sample, there were not enough Asian voters to break out as a separate subgroup.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Voters’ Choices

For whom would you vote if the general election were held today and the candidates were (among registered voters):

Checchi vs. Lungren

Checchi: 47%

Lungren: 37%

Someone else (volunteered): 2%

Don’t know: 14%

*

Davis vs. Lungren

Davis: 48%

Lungren: 36%

Someone else (volunteered): 1%

Don’t know: 15%

*

Harman vs. Lungren

Harman: 44%

Lungren: 39%

Don’t know: 17%

Source: L.A. Times Poll

The Governor’s Race

* For whom would you vote if the June primary were held today and the candidate were:

Lungren

Likely Voters: 28%

All Registered Voters: 24%

Registered Democrats: 6%

Registered Independents: 13%

Registered Republicans: 51%

*

Checchi

Likely Voters: 22%

All Registered Voters: 23%

Registered Democrats: 28%

Registered Independents: 29%

Registered Republicans: 16%

*

Davis

Likely Voters: 13%

All Registered Voters: 13%

Registered Democrats: 20%

Registered Independents: 7%

Registered Republicans: 6%

*

Harman

Likely Voters: 24%

All Registered Voters: 19%

Registered Democrats: 26%

Registered Independents: 22%

Registered Republicans: 9%

*

Someone else (Volunteered)

Likely Voters: --

All Registered Voters: 1%

Registered Democrats: --

Registered Independents: 29%

Registered Republicans: 1%

*

Don’t Know

Likely Voters: 13%

All Registered Voters: 20%

Registered Democrats: 20%

Registered Independents: 29%

Registered Republicans: 17%

*

* Have you seen any commercials of candidates running for governor?

If so, which candidate(s)? (Accepted multiple replies)

Have not seen commercials: Registered Voters: 24%

Saw Checchi commercials: Registered Voters: 67%

Saw Lungren commercials: Registered Voters: 7%

Saw Davis commercials: Registered Voters: 7%

*

* What is your impression of . . .(among registered voters)

. . .Al Checchi?

Favorable (Now): 49%

Favorable (10/97): 8%

Unfavorable (Now): 22%

Unfavorable (10/97): 3%

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (Now): 29%

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (10/97): 89%

*

. . .Gray Davis?

Favorable (Now): 51%

Favorable (10/97): 49%

Unfavorable (Now): 14%

Unfavorable (10/97): 17%

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (Now): 35%

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (10/97): 34%

*

. . .Jane Harman?

Favorable (Now): 42%

Favorable (10/97): NA

Unfavorable (Now): 19%

Unfavorable (10/97): NA

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (Now): 39%

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (10/97): NA

*

. . .Dan Lungren?

Favorable (Now): 45%

Favorable (10/97): 52%

Unfavorable (Now): 22%

Unfavorable (10/97): 20%

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (Now): 33%

Don’t know/Haven’t heard enough (10/97): 28%

Note: Numbers may not total 100% where more than one reply was accepted or some answer categories are not shown. --indicates less than 0.5%.

Source: L.A. Times Polls

Times poll results are also available on the World Wide Web at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,409 adults in California, including 1,105 registered voters and 566 likely voters, by telephone April 4-9. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for all adults and registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points and 4 points for likely voters; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Although Asians were interviewed and are part of the total sample, there were not enough Asian voters to break out as a separate subgroup.