Crossover Vote GOP’s Primary Aim

For the first time, Democrat and independent voters in Orange County’s intense 46th Congressional District primary election are getting calls and visits from unexpected persons: Republican candidates.

Thanks to the state’s new open-primary system--which lets voters choose from all candidates regardless of party affiliation--GOP hopefuls in the 46th are committed to courting so-called “crossover” votes. This, despite the fact that the wisdom of relying on votes of independents, let alone crossovers from another party, has not paid off in other places.

At stake in the 46th, however, is the chance to run against Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) in November. And so, though poaching is a dicey strategy, the four GOP candidates in the 46th are telephoning, mailing and paying visits to voters they would otherwise ignore during primary season.

Among those campaigning most actively for crossover votes are Orange family law attorney Lisa Hughes and Superior Court Judge James P. Gray. Hughes and Gray believe that in a four-way GOP contest in which analysts expect a low voter turnout, every ballot--whether cast by a straying Democrat or an independent--could tip the scales. The goal is to identify people who would back a GOP candidate other than conservative former Congressman Robert K. Dornan, who also is vying for the opportunity to unseat his bitter rival, Sanchez.

Courting Conservatives Regardless of Party

The Hughes campaign--shopping for the necessary plurality in the primary and recognizing that Dornan has always run well with the hard-right Republicans who make up the biggest chunk of GOP voters in the 46th--last month had a phone bank call voters it believed were conservatives, regardless of their party registration.

Said Hughes consultant and state Sen. John R. Lewis (R-Orange), “The caller explained we have an open primary and said, ‘Knowing you can vote for anyone on the ballot, would you be willing to vote for a Republican candidate other than Bob Dornan?’ ”

Hughes is also mailing fliers to targeted voters across the 46th, which includes Anaheim, Garden Grove and Santa Ana, and is planning a get-out-the-vote, door-to-door drive among those disillusioned with Dornan.

Judge Gray, with more limited funding, is using volunteer phone workers and precinct walks to exploit what his campaign believes is the candidate’s broad, nonpartisan appeal.

“This primary could turn out to be a benefit,” Gray campaign manager Bryan Wyatt said. “Will Democrats just go and vote for Loretta or, seeing she is unopposed, try to make a difference in the Republican primary?”

Dornan, for his part, is going after so-called Reagan Democrats--blue-collar workers who have supported him in the past. He also is seeking independents to augment his established base among high-propensity Republican primary voters--those who have cast ballots in at least four of the last five elections.

Even former Cypress Councilman Chuck Coronado, who has raised almost no money and has yet to open a campaign office, is walking precincts in the district trying to persuade Democrats, especially Latinos, to back him.

Though it may prove to be a key strategy in the 46th primary, some political observers are skeptical about counting on crossovers.

Crossover voting “doesn’t happen very often,” said Roy Behr, a consultant based in Santa Monica. “The open primary is new and interesting, and there might conceivably be circumstances where it could make a difference. But ultimately, in 99 cases out of 100, if you can’t win a plurality among your own party, you are not going to get the nomination.

“People who are attempting to win by poaching from independents or other parties will fail a lot more often than they will succeed,” Behr said.

Others, however, say it could be successful if a candidate builds on an already strong same-party base.

A key reason a crossover strategy may play a role in the outcome of this year’s primary is that GOP strategists anticipate low interest among Republicans in the June election. That’s because there is no presidential race this year, and Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren is running without significant GOP opposition for the gubernatorial nomination.

Two years ago, Dornan won a three-way primary in a presidential election year by getting 16,933 votes, or 62%. Turnout was 44% of the district’s 62,444 registered Republicans.

If the turnout among registered Republicans mirrors the turnout two years ago, that would mean about 25,000 Republicans would cast ballots. Therefore, in a four-way race, a candidate’s ability to land as few as 1,000 or 2,000 crossover votes could be pivotal.

Incumbent Sanchez appears unconcerned about attempts to lure crossovers from her constituent base. Spokesman Lee Godown said the freshman congresswoman has yet to decide whether to campaign actively for votes in the primary, where she is the lone Democrat.

“We don’t have a dog in that fight,” he said. “We will let those guys duke it out to see who gets to run against Loretta” in the November election.

In times past, Dornan would have faced little opposition in the race to regain the seat he held for 12 of the 18 years he was in Congress. But his loss to Sanchez and subsequent unsuccessful efforts to overturn her election estranged him from some party leaders and supporters.

Several of the county’s leading donors and GOP officials have asked Dornan not to run, believing Hughes is the best choice to unseat Sanchez. The police unions in the district’s three major cities also have deserted him to endorse Sanchez.

Hughes emphasized that her campaign’s “priority is to get a plurality of the Republican voters, but we are not going to ignore this large block of newcomers to the election.”

Dornan Plans to Stick to Base; Not So, Others

Gray, on the other hand, is openly betting on the new primary. “I am the broad-based candidate who can appeal to all voters,” he said. His campaign is targeting people of all parties with a history of primary voting.

Gray can “appeal to a cross-section of the district, . . . not just the right wing,” campaign manager Wyatt said.

Dornan too believes he has wide appeal, but he most wants to ensure the loyalty of voters who have supported him before.

“We are sticking to our base,” said Mark Dornan, the former congressman’s son and campaign manager. “We are going to undo the lies and get out my dad’s record, which speaks for itself.”

The campaign already has sent absentee ballot material to high-propensity Republican and independent voters, and will use volunteers to call them, he said. Reagan Democrats will get separate mailings.

Declaring Dornan the underdog, Mark Dornan called his father “a natural independent” who would appeal to voters across the spectrum as “the little guy pushed around by the elites of both parties that rejected voter fraud and are morally bankrupt on issues across the board.”

Political observers say all campaigns this year will target independents to some extent, but perhaps not to the same degree that those in the keenly contested 46th are.

“In a very close election, every vote will make a difference,” said Harvey Englander, a consultant based in Los Angeles. “But you need to establish a base with your own votes and not be relying on independents or crossovers from another party as your base.”