Few Believe Clinton, but Most Applaud His Work

Only one in six Americans considers President Clinton’s televised confession Monday night a sincere apology, but an overwhelming majority believe that the investigation into his relationship with Monica S. Lewinsky has gone on too long and most say he should not be forced from office because of the affair, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

While a narrow majority say Clinton should leave office if he encouraged Lewinsky to lie--a charge the president has continued to deny--fewer Americans feel that way than in January, when the scandal first erupted. The survey found Clinton’s job approval rating holding remarkably steady at 62%, but it found several critical assessments of his personal character eroding, particularly among swing voters in the center of the electorate.

The overall impression given by the survey is of a public exasperated with Clinton’s behavior and with the investigation into his behavior. It suggests that Americans remain leery of launching impeachment proceedings but not adamantly opposed. Asked how they would react if their representative in Congress voted for impeachment hearings, 18% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for their representative this fall, 26% said they would be less likely and just over half said it would not affect their vote.

Poll Conducted Before Air Strikes

The Times Poll, supervised by Director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,387 Americans on Tuesday and Wednesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It was completed before Clinton announced Thursday that the United States had attacked terrorist facilities in Afghanistan and Sudan in response to the recent bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa. Traditionally, presidents have experienced a short-term surge of support after such military action.

But this survey measures the baseline of public reaction to Clinton’s confession of an inappropriate relationship with former White House intern Lewinsky, unaffected by attitudes about the bombing. It finds the public increasingly skeptical of Clinton’s moral compass yet impressed with his performance in office and convinced that he has many of the qualities it takes to succeed as president.

Two questions underscore the continued inclination of most Americans to separate their judgments about Clinton as a person and as president. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed said Clinton’s relationship with Lewinsky made them “think less of him as a person.” But only 29% said the affair left them with “less confidence in his ability to perform his job as president.” And just over two-thirds of those polled continued to agree that “Clinton is effective” and can “get things done.”

Despite Clinton’s attack in a speech Monday on independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr, the survey found Americans giving Starr better ratings than he received in other polls just before the president’s confession: 41% said they approved of Starr’s job performance, while 44% disapproved. Lewinsky does not fare as well: just 10% of those surveyed said they had a favorable impression of her, while 73% had an unfavorable impression. Yet 38% of those polled said they would believe Lewinsky if her testimony conflicts with Clinton’s; 35% said they would believe the president. (Men are more likely to believe her; women, him.)

First Lady’s Overall Rating Remains High

Assessments of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton are also ambivalent. Her overall favorableness rating remains high, with 59% of those surveyed saying they have a positive impression of her. But many see in her response to the crisis more calculation than conviction: A plurality of 45% of those polled said they believe she is supporting her husband “for political reasons,” while just 27% said “she believes in her marriage and will forgive him.” (Women were more likely than men to believe she genuinely forgives the president.)

Notwithstanding Starr’s credible job-performance rating, Americans remain skeptical of the motives behind the investigation and enormously eager for its conclusion. Nearly three-fourths of those polled (including a surprising majority of Republicans) agreed that “the investigation has gone on too long and is taking attention away from more important issues.” Just one-fourth said it is important to “get all the facts about Clinton’s involvement with . . . Lewinsky, no matter how long it takes.” And three in five say the investigation is motivated more by partisan politics than a desire to get to the truth.

Though Democrats worry that the scandal may discourage their supporters from voting in November (a possibility not tested in the survey), the poll found no evidence that the controversy is shifting partisan allegiances. Nearly nine of 10 of those polled said the scandal would have no effect on whether they vote for Democrats this year. In fact, Democrats held a razor-thin margin of 46% to 43% in preferences for the November congressional elections. Likewise, almost three-fourths of those surveyed said Clinton’s confession would have no impact on whether they would vote for Vice President Al Gore if he runs for president in 2000.

Amid all of these conflicting emotions, the survey found that Clinton’s terse, bristling speech on Monday night drew enormous attention. Almost two-thirds of those polled said they had watched the address. Another 16% said they had read about it.

Like almost everything else in the controversy, Clinton’s address evoked complex reactions. On the one hand, it appeared to meet the public’s expectations for a factual accounting: 53% of those surveyed said they were “satisfied with the explanation” Clinton gave for his relationship with Lewinsky.

On the other hand, the speech’s overall message and tone drew a much more critical response. Just 16% agreed that “Clinton sincerely apologized for his actions.” Another 28% said, “Clinton took responsibility for his actions but did not apologize.” The largest group (47%) said, “Clinton took some responsibility but shifted the blame to Kenneth Starr and partisan politics.”

Majority Saw Shifting of Blame

Strikingly, 54% of those who watched the speech thought Clinton was trying to shift the blame. Just one in seven of them believed he was sincerely apologizing. Those who watched the speech were more likely than the country overall to believe Lewinsky rather than Clinton, if their testimony conflicts.

The speech also appeared to fail another key test: Though Clinton declared that “at no time did I ask anyone to lie,” 47% of those surveyed still believe he “encouraged [Lewinsky] to lie under oath.” Just 37% think he did not. Those who watched the speech were no more likely than the rest of the country to believe Clinton’s denial.

As the investigation culminates, the public judgment on that question could become a crucial barometer of Clinton’s political health. That’s because key Republicans, such as Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah), have suggested that Congress is much more likely to move toward impeachment proceedings if Starr finds evidence of obstruction of justice than if Clinton’s only offense is possibly perjuring himself in the Paula Corbin Jones sexual harassment case in January.

Like many legislators, the public views that as potentially the most serious offense in the controversy. Only about one-third of those surveyed said Clinton should resign or be impeached because of the affair. But asked what should happen “if it is proved” that Clinton prompted Lewinsky to lie, attitudes change sharply. In those circumstances, 30% of those surveyed said Clinton should resign, another 23% said he should be impeached, and just 41% said the matter should be dropped.

Clinton partisans can take heart that the percentage of Americans saying he should be forced from office if he encouraged perjury is lower than the 65% who felt that way in a Times Poll taken during the scandal’s first days. But more worrisome for the White House is the drift of opinion on these questions among the swing voters who provided Clinton his margin of victory in 1996.

Just about half of independents believe that Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie, and a majority of independents said he should be forced from office if he did. Just 12% of independents said they considered Clinton’s speech a sincere apology. Similarly, while moderate and conservative Democrats remain skeptical of the charge that Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie (only about one-third said they believe it is true), almost half of them now say he should be forced from office if he did. In 1996, Clinton targeted parents as a key constituency to expand his political coalition: But now, 59% of them say he should be forced from office if he encouraged Lewinsky to lie.

Job-Approval Rating at a Robust 62%

Yet for all that, Clinton’s job approval rating remains robust: 62% of those surveyed, including 58% of independents, give Clinton positive marks for his performance in office. On the economy, he received positive marks from a striking 71% of those polled. On foreign affairs, 56% said he is doing a good job. His job approval ratings have weakened somewhat at the edges of his coalition--college-educated and upper-income voters give him more equivocal marks--but he continues to draw majority support for his overall performance from virtually every major demographic group (apart from partisan Republicans and, intriguingly, women with children) in the electorate. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed said the country “is in better shape because of [his] performance in office the past six years.” Just 14% believe America is worse off under Clinton.

On personal questions, though, the president has clearly lost ground. On the broadest measure of attitudes toward Clinton personally, the country divides: 49% said they have a favorable impression of him, 47% unfavorable. (That’s down from January, when his favorables exceeded his unfavorables by 19 percentage points.) Likewise the country is evenly divided--48% to 48%--when asked whether Clinton “has the honesty and integrity to serve as president.” But that also represents an erosion for Clinton since January, when just 38% of those surveyed said he lacked honesty and integrity. Moreover, independents now lean slightly toward “no” on that question.

Only 25% See Clinton as Positive Role Model

Clinton receives even weaker ratings when Americans are asked whether they consider him a positive role model (just 25% do), and whether he shares their moral values (only 23% agree). But, as in other surveys all year, the public continues to carefully segment its views about the president--balancing its doubts about his morality with more positive assessments, not only of his job performance but of other personal characteristics as well. Besides his high marks for an ability “to get things done,” 53% said he “comes close” to their views on issues. And 53% said he “cares about people like them”--though that last number is lower than Clinton has received on that question in other surveys before his speech Monday.

Some of these questions starkly divide men and women. Women are more likely than men to say Clinton has the honesty and integrity they expect, more likely to have an overall favorable impression of him and much more likely to say he shares their views on issues and cares about the needs of people like them. His job approval rating is still a dozen percentage points higher among women than men.

But it may be just as revealing that women are virtually no more likely than men to say Clinton shares their moral values. And women are just as likely as men to say Clinton’s relationship with Lewinsky has made them think less of him as a person.

To hear the views of selected Times Poll respondents and participate in a survey comparing your opinions to theirs, go to The Times’ Web site at: https://www.latimes.com/clintonpoll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Next Step?

President Clinton has now acknowledged that he had an inappropriate relationship with Monica Lewinsky. What should happen next?

He should be impeached: 10%

He should resign: 22%

The matter should be dropped: 61%

Don’t know: 7%

Source: L.A. Times poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Clinton Report Card

President Clinton’s job approval rating

Approve: 62%

*

Do you think Bill Clinton....

...is effective?

Yes: 68%

No: 24%

*

...comes close to your views on issues affecting the country?

Yes: 53%

No: 39%

*

...cares about people like you?

Yes: 53%

No: 42

*

...has the honesty and integrity to serve as president?

Yes: 48%

Now: 48%

*

...is a positive role model?

Yes: 25%

No: 68%

*

. . . shares your moral values?

Yes: 23%

No: 71%

****

On Monday, Clinton:

Took responsibility but didn’t apologize: 28%

Sincerely apologized: 16% Don’t know: 9%

Shifted blame to Kenneth W. Starr: 47%

****

If it is proved that Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie under oath, what do you think should happen?

He should be impeached: 23%

He should resign: 30%

The matter should be dropped: 41%

Don’t know: 9%

Note: Numbers do not total 100% where “don’t know” is not shown

****

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 1,387 adults nationwide by telephone Aug. 18-19. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, and region. In addition, the sample was adjusted slightly for national party affiliation. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Source: L.A. Times Polls

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/.

Next Step? / Los Angeles Times