Zimbabwe Uneasy About Role in Congo

The bodies come home under the cover of darkness. Even the designated airstrip is kept secret. Burials are low-key--no dignitaries, no medals, no talk of heroism.

It is unclear how many Zimbabwean soldiers have been killed fighting in Congo. The government here says casualties are minimal, fewer than a dozen dead. Opposition figures and Western military analysts suspect that there are multitudes more.

“Not even a [soccer] match has so few casualties as the government is saying,” said Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions. “When we ask questions, we hear nothing. No one wants to give answers.”

Since August, an estimated 6,000 Zimbabwean soldiers have been deployed in support of Congolese President Laurent Kabila, who is at war with rebels backed by neighboring Rwanda and Uganda. Although Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe is leading the regional defense of Kabila’s regime, details of the unpopular military excursion are hard to come by at home.

“The government has done an awful job of managing the public relations of this war,” said a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. “You can hear the grumbling: ‘This is Mugabe’s war, and we are the ones dying.’ ”

Military analysts say the country’s top generals are becoming increasingly fearful that Congo may become Zimbabwe’s equivalent of Vietnam if a peace settlement is not brokered soon.

Zimbabwe’s 40,000-strong army is among the best-trained and equipped in Africa; soldiers handily pushed back rebel forces marching on the Congolese capital, Kinshasa. However, as the war shifted to the country’s rugged interior, factors such as bad roads, heavy rain and poor communications have favored the rebels. There have been unconfirmed reports of Zimbabwean soldiers refusing to take up arms.

“The terrain is the toughest in Central Africa,” said a Western military official who has been tracking the war. “Zimbabwe’s military realizes it is an uphill battle. They understand what it will take to win.”

A recent public opinion survey showed that 70% of respondents oppose the country’s involvement in Congo. The poll, conducted by the Gallup Organization on behalf of several religious and human rights organizations, found that economic costs of the intervention rank second to loss of human life among reasons for Zimbabweans’ objections. Few, it seems, have bought into Mugabe’s contention that the intervention is warranted.

Economists say the economic worries are well-founded. The economy is at its worst since the end of white rule in 1980. Almost half the work force is unemployed, the value of the U.S. dollar has doubled against the Zimbabwean dollar this year, and inflation is running at more than 40%. Protests by trade unions over the rapid economic decline and alleged government corruption have become so disruptive that Mugabe recently banned work stoppages.

Mugabe says the Congo intervention is costing Zimbabwe nothing because Kabila and his allies have agreed to foot the bill, which amounts to about $1 million a day. The army’s books are not open, however, and critics charge that any reimbursements from Kabila are likely to come in lucrative mining and business contracts with Mugabe’s circle of friends--not in direct repayments to the state treasury.

The International Monetary Fund has become so worried about the war that it has threatened to withhold $55 million in aid due this month unless it gets assurances that Zimbabwe will not use the money for military uses. The IMF funding was already in jeopardy because of Mugabe’s plan to seize hundreds of white-owned farms without compensating the owners.

“The problem is that assurances in a country like this . . . don’t add up to a great deal of weight,” said Harare economist John Robertson. “The IMF is very concerned that it could be seen as funding the war indefinitely.”

Despite public unease with the involvement in Congo and growing desperation over the economy, few here predict Mugabe’s political demise. After nearly 19 years in power, the 74-year-old autocrat has no serious challengers.

“We are caught up between a charged population and an arrogant government,” Tsvangirai said.