Support for President Jumps in Wake of Impeachment Vote

Rather than generate pressure on President Clinton to resign, the House decision to impeach him has solidified the public consensus that he should serve out his term and provoked a sharp backlash against the Republican Party, a flurry of national polls has found.

Four surveys--all taken after the House’s largely party-line impeachment vote Saturday--found Clinton’s approval ratings sharply rising, in most cases to record levels. Assessments of the GOP, meanwhile, continued the steady decline that began when the House launched the impeachment process early this fall.

And, in a sharp recoil against the vote approving two articles of impeachment against Clinton, the surveys found that just over 60% of Americans disapproved of the House decision.

Republicans had hoped that Saturday’s vote would ignite a chain reaction compelling Clinton to resign. But the surveys found that the percentage of Americans who believe the president should go--either through resignation or a conviction in the Senate--declined after the House acted. One finding remained constant: Before the vote, and after, most Americans said the controversy should be resolved with a compromise, such as a congressional resolution censuring the president--the option that House Republicans would not let come to a vote last weekend.

The poll findings were in one sense no surprise. At each stage of the process--from Clinton’s confession of an affair with Monica S. Lewinsky in August to the release of independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr’s report in September to the launching of the impeachment inquiry in October--a clear majority of the public has opposed the president’s removal, even while expressing disapproval of his conduct.

Republicans had hoped that the drama and solemnity of the actual impeachment vote might finally change that dynamic. Instead, on virtually every key question, major national polls all found a clear surge toward the president after the House action.

On the broadest measure of support, Clinton’s job approval ratings spiked upward over the weekend to the highest numbers several polling organizations have recorded in his presidency. Polls on Saturday and Sunday by NBC, the New York Times/CBS and Gallup/CNN/USA Today all found Clinton’s job approval rising about seven percentage points since last week--to a high of 72% or 73%, depending on the survey. The polls found overwhelming public support for the military action against Iraq, which might have contributed to Clinton’s gain.

His standing contrasts with public attitudes toward President Nixon just before he was forced to resign under threat of impeachment in August 1974. At that point, just 24% of Americans said they approved of Nixon’s job performance, compared to 66% who disapproved, according to Gallup polls.

Just as striking as the increase in Clinton’s job approval was the marked decline in support for his resignation. As the impeachment vote approached last week, several polls found growing tolerance for resignation when Americans were asked the hypothetical question of whether Clinton should step down if impeached.

But once the hypothetical became real, support for resignation withered in the surveys. The most dramatic change came in the ABC/Washington Post poll. Early last week, the survey turned heads in Washington when it reported that 57% of Americans would prefer that Clinton resign rather than “fight the charges” in the Senate if he was impeached. But once Clinton was impeached, only 42% of those surveyed said that he should quit rather than “fight.”

The Gallup, NBC and CBS/NYT polls all found that only one-third of the public or less say Clinton should resign--in each case, a measurable decline from the share that favored resignation before the House vote.

Part of that difference may be explained by slight differences in the wording of questions. The ABC/Post poll, for instance, found that when it asked whether Clinton should step down to avoid a trial in the Senate without adding the inflammatory prospect of his waging a “fight,” support for resignation fell to just 33%--the level recorded in the other three polls.

The surveys largely converged in finding scant support for a Senate vote to convict Clinton. The ABC/Washington Post, CBS/NYT and Gallup surveys all found that about two-thirds of Americans believe the Senate should not vote to convict and remove Clinton.

Indeed, the surveys found little support for the Senate’s conducting a trial. Asked what the Senate should do next, just 31% of those polled by Gallup said it should stage a trial; 36% said it should censure Clinton and another 32% said it should drop the matter entirely. The NBC poll produced a similar result. In the CBS/NYT poll, two-thirds of those surveyed said that the Senate should reach a compromise with Clinton rather than go to trial.

But the new polls--as they have for months--illuminated the cross-cutting political pressures that militate against such a deal. Although the surveys found a clear majority of the public opposed to impeachment, resignation or Clinton’s ouster, they also found that rank-and-file Republicans are increasingly insistent that he should be removed.

In the Gallup poll, for instance, just 29% of all those surveyed said that they wanted their senators to vote to convict Clinton. But 62% of Republicans want their senators to do so. Likewise, reversing the proportions in the country at large, two-thirds of rank-and-file Republicans said that the Senate should conduct a trial, Gallup found.

That means that Senate Republicans--just like their counterparts in the House--could face intense pressure from the party base to avoid any deal that short-circuits the effort to force Clinton from office.

At the same time, the surveys found virtually no cracks in Clinton’s support among rank-and-file Democrats--fully 89% of whom want their senators to oppose conviction, according to Gallup. (Similarly, 88% of Democrats believe that Clinton should not resign.) Those attitudes will increase pressure on Democratic senators to stand with Clinton--and lessen pressure on him to resign.

As it has all year, this polarization of public opinion complicates efforts to resolve the struggle, one way or another. While Republicans will face pressure not to accept a compromise on censure--the way most Democrats want to end the crisis--Clinton’s solid support among Democrats means that he is unlikely to resign, which is how most Republicans would like to close the book.

In the meantime, the bitter struggle is exacting a huge toll on the Republican Party’s public image. In the Gallup survey, just 31% expressed a favorable opinion of the GOP, while a stunning 57% held a negative view. (The CBS/NYT survey reached a similar result.)

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Impact of the Vote

Polls following Saturday’s impeachment vote found a clear surge in public opinion.

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CLINTON JOB APPROVAL ATTITUDE TOWARD GOP Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Before vote 63% 33% 38% 56% After vote 73% 25% 31% 57%

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Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today polls taken Dec. 18 and 19. Results do not add up to 100% due to rounding and because “don’t know” answers are not shown.