Service Jobs Seen Growing Most by 2002

Everyone seems to be into predictions. The state finance department says whites will be a minority in Orange County by 2008, Republicans say Clinton is on the way out. Market watchers say stocks will go up--or down.

Now, here’s some forward thinking by the state Employment Development Department about local job trends. The data is from the EDD’s annual projections and planning report and estimates employment in the county in 2002--four years down the road.

We offer it in case it might help you decide on a college major (or whether to even bother going), a career change or just provide fuel for your holiday party chatter.

The big number, total employment, will be 1.32 million in 2002, up almost 4% from this year’s average (so far) of 1.27 million.

All major job categories except mining and mineral extraction will grow. Mining will drop to just 600 full-time jobs and barely register on a pie chart.

The biggest percentage growth will be in the services industries, which includes everything from flipping burgers to defending corporate executives in sexual harassment lawsuits. The slowest growth will be in transportation and public utilities, a category that covers bus and taxi drivers, airline pilots and warehouse workers, among others.

Manufacturing, which once drove the county’s entire economy, will continue to provide 17% of the jobs here. Economists also tell us that each manufacturing job supports about 1.5 service industry jobs, meaning that people who get their hands dirty making things are still just as important to the overall scheme of things economic as those who earn their bread giving advice or suing someone else.

In declining order, the job categories that will keep people employed in 2002--and the share of the pie they’ll account for:

* Production, construction, operations and material handling, 23.6%.

* Professional, technical and paraprofessional, 20.2%.

* Clerical and administrative support, 19.6%

* Service occupations, 15%.

* Sales and related occupations, 12.4%

* Management and administration, 7.9%.

* Agriculture, fishing and forestry, 1.3%.