U.S. Reports Robust Jobs Growth Amid Asian Fears
The nation’s economy, apparently feeling no ill effects from the Asian financial crisis, continued to produce an unusually large number of jobs in January, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.7% of the work force, the government reported Friday,
The Labor Department’s monthly survey showed that payrolls surged by 358,000--about the same pace as in December, when 355,000 new jobs were created. Job gains in manufacturing and construction were especially strong.
The figures confirmed assessments by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan and others that the U.S. economy has been largely immune to the Asian crisis so far, although that is expected to change soon as cutbacks in Asian orders for U.S. goods begin to take hold.
Even so, economists said they expect the unemployment rate--which has been at a 24-year low in recent months--to remain relatively steady for the first part of this year, then rise only slightly in late spring or summer.
“The report shows that the economy continues to have considerable momentum,” said Lynn Reaser, economist at NationsBank Corp., based in Jacksonville, Fla. But she predicted that the effects of the economic slump in Asia would begin to show up here relatively soon.
Analysts said that at least in part, the continued strong job growth reflected unusually warm weather patterns, which boosted construction activity in many parts of the country. With interest rates low, the housing market has generally been strong.
The only hints of weakness came in the length of the manufacturing workweek, which edged down by one-tenth of an hour to 42.1 hours, and in a modest decline in chemical and textile jobs.
Friday’s figures brought overall employment in the United States to 131.1 million people. A full 64.2% of the working-age population was actively employed--a record. The length of the average workweek rose two-tenths of an hour to 34.8 hours.
At the same time, average hourly earnings rose 4 cents over the month to $12.51. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 46 cents, or 3.8%, far more rapidly than the inflation rate, which has edged up only 1.7%.
The overall report underscored the reluctance of the Federal Reserve Board to move quickly to raise or lower interest rates until it learns more about the impact of the Asian economic slump.
Greenspan has said policymakers were uncertain whether the economy would continue to overheat--heightening the risk of new inflation--or slow markedly soon as a result of the Asian crisis. On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged.
January marked the 10th month in a row that the jobless rate remained below 5%, continuing an extraordinary expansion that began in March 1991 and defying predictions that inflation would rebound if the unemployment rate fell to this level. In 1997, the rate for the year averaged 4.9%, its lowest level since 1973.
Along with the overall figures, the department reported significant improvements for groups whose unemployment rates traditionally have been higher than that for the nation as a whole. The rate among blacks fell to 9.3% of the work force from 9.9% in December, while the rate for Latinos dropped to 6.9% from 7.5% before.
The department also introduced a new set of statistics showing unemployment rates for workers 25 years and older in various educational categories.
According to those figures, the jobless rate among workers who have not completed high school was 7.2% in January, while that for high school graduates was 3.9%. Unemployment among college graduates was only 1.9%. was 7.2% in January, while that for high school graduates was 3.9%. Unemployment among college graduates was only 1.9%.
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U.S. Unemployment
Percentage of U.S. work force not employed, seasonally adjusted:
Jan. 1998: 4.7%
Source: Labor Department
