U.S. Softly Nudges Taiwan Toward China

What exactly did President Clinton mean by his words? Was he just talking loosely? Was he trying to say something new? Millions of people could be affected by the answers to these questions.

No, not those words. We’re not talking here about “improper relationships.” Rather, the issue is the future relationship of Taiwan and China, one of the most troublesome issues for U.S. foreign policy.

When Clinton and Chinese President Jiang Zemin held their much-publicized summit meeting in Washington last October, most of what was said about Taiwan was old hat. In writing, the United States pledged only to abide by old agreements and stick to its “one-China” policy--thus not disputing the idea that Taiwan is part of China.

Then, at a news conference, Clinton added something intriguing. He said he hoped China and Taiwan would resolve their differences “as soon as possible. Sooner is better than later.”

In the quarter-century since President Nixon opened relations with Beijing, no president had suggested that Taiwan and China ought to hurry up and settle the long-standing dispute over the future of the island and its 21 million people.

Indeed, the standard American line usually went in the reverse direction: U.S. officials pointed out, with satisfaction, that Mao Tse-tung once said China could wait a long time to work out Taiwan’s status. Moreover, in 1982, the United States formally promised Taiwan it wouldn’t seek to pressure it to negotiate with China.

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Although Clinton’s remark seemed to indicate a break with that attitude, administration officials subsequently sought to minimize the comment’s significance. He was not trying to goad Taiwan and China into working out a deal with one another, the aides insisted. It was just an offhand remark, an unprepared ad-lib at a news conference.

Maybe. But Americans have come to learn in other contexts that Clinton chooses his words carefully. And in the three months since his comment, there have been more signs that the administration is, in fact, trying to play a much more active role in encouraging Taiwan to deal with China.

A few weeks ago, two recently retired U.S. officials visited Taipei: William J. Perry, the former secretary of Defense, and John Shalikashvili, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Their credentials for meeting with Taiwanese leaders were impeccable. In March 1996, they were the Pentagon leaders responsible for sending two American aircraft carriers to help protect Taiwan at a time when China was launching missiles and staging military exercises near the island.

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By several accounts, the two men emphasized two themes to Taiwan’s leaders: First, that Taiwan should get back into talks with Beijing; second, that Taiwan cannot rely on U.S. support if it goes so far as to declare formal independence from China. What they said certainly sounded like a message from the administration.

Still, Taiwan’s leaders discount these apparent efforts to nudge Taiwan toward negotiations with China. “I don’t read it as a kind of pressure on us,” says John Chang, secretary-general of the Kuomintang, Taiwan’s ruling party, in an interview here last week.

While in Washington, Chang also sat down for a quiet talk at a Chinatown restaurant with Wei Jingsheng, China’s leading proponent of democracy who was just freed from 19 years in prison. Watch for Wei to make his first visit to Taiwan later this year.

The administration deserves credit for paying more attention to Taiwan and for realizing that the situation there is changing. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party is gaining in strength and could conceivably come to power within the next few years.

The DPP has in the past advocated independence for the island--and China has long said that any formal declaration of independence could prompt it to take military action against Taiwan. However, later this week, DPP leaders are sitting down to reevaluate what their policy will be toward the Chinese mainland.

“We want Beijing to know that we are responsible enough to do business with,” explains Parris Chang [no relation to John], who is in charge of the party’s Washington office.

Can the Clinton administration succeed? In limited ways. There are indications Beijing and Taipei may well resume the talks that were broken off when China was angered by Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to America in 1995.

“It’s very simple. We want to talk to [China]. We really want to talk to them,” said John Chang in the interview.

But there are also plenty of signs that such diplomatic efforts won’t go far. Chang cautions that the talks should go forward only on an “incremental” basis, without trying to address the big political issues of Taiwan’s future relationship to China.

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He also pointed out, plausibly, that China needs to be more realistic about what can be expected from Taiwan now that it is a democracy. “We will decide our move toward mainland China in accordance with public opinion,” he said.

Yet Chang also shows a touch of unreality of his own. He sometimes talks as though Taiwan’s government, the Republic of China, had never lost the Chinese civil war. “You know, we came into being in 1912. They [the Chinese Communists] established their regime in 1949,” Chang says. “It is very clear who created the second China.”

Amid such sentiments, Taiwan and China may begin to talk again soon. But the betting here is that they will settle their differences later, rather than sooner.

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Jim Mann’s column appears in this space every Wednesday.