Official Sees No ‘Tidal Wave’ of College Growth

The oft-repeated forecast that a “tidal wave” of students will swamp California colleges in coming years has been grossly exaggerated, the state legislative analyst’s office said Thursday.

Even as the children of baby boomers move through their college years, the growth in enrollment at California’s colleges and universities “will be steady and moderate . . . and manageable,” the analyst concluded.

The report, “Higher Education Enrollments: Is a Tidal Wave Coming?” contradicts warnings by public colleges, higher education experts and various state agencies that better preparations are needed to handle a flood of new students.

Indeed, the report was instantly criticized Thursday for making improper assumptions--and for potentially undermining the campaign to prepare California’s public colleges to handle a staggering influx of students.

“It seems to me that this is exactly the wrong thing to say, when we are trying to get the state to plan for the future,” said William Pickens, director of the California Citizens Commission on Higher Education. “What’s needed in California is more education, not less.”

The analyst’s report also comes at a time when Gov. Pete Wilson has campaigned to bolster education at all levels.

His proposal for next year’s budget asks for 6% to 8% increases for the University of California, California State University system and the state’s 106 community colleges--largely to help meet the demands of surging enrollments.

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The new 18-page report came from the analyst’s office, which advises legislators on budgetary matters. Although it did not recommend specific funding figures for higher education, it took on the conventional wisdom that collegiate budgets must be fortified against an impending tidal wave, saying the growth is slower than in the past.

If the percentage of adults who enter college remains at 1996 levels, enrollments at California’s public colleges and universities will increase by 231,000 by 2005, the report said--far fewer than the 455,000 projected by the California Post-Secondary Education Commission, which usually tracks such figures.

“Such growth, rather than of tidal wave proportions, would actually be dramatically lower than the 2.7% annual growth in enrollments . . . between 1970 and 1991,” the report said.

Should enrollments swell beyond control, the Legislature could control them, it said, by tightening eligibility requirements, increasing student fees or limiting financial aid or course offerings.

Larry Hershman, UC’s vice president for budget, said the analyst’s long-term projections closely mirror those of UC officials, who have been criticized for underestimating growth.

“We haven’t been very good at making projections and neither has been anybody else,” Hershman said.

“There are too many factors that determine what students will do, that nobody really knows.”