AIDS Threatens African Development

A brief, grim document at the World Bank office forecasts life expectancy in 2010 for neighboring Zimbabwe: 57 years “without,” 30 years “with.” The variable is AIDS.

In more than a dozen other sub-Saharan African countries, AIDS may reduce life expectancy by at least 10 years.

“The virus is crossing borders, and the prospect is frightening,” said Roberto Chavez, veteran World Bank delegate in Mozambique. “It could be the greatest obstacle to development.”

U.N. figures say 783,700 Africans have died of AIDS since it surfaced in the 1980s. In 1996, 1.9 million adults were newly infected with the AIDS virus, as many as in the rest of the world combined.

And in Africa, Chavez and U.N. officials warn, a large number of victims are from educated elites--top civil servants, technicians, military officers, businessmen--needed to run countries.

“If a fragile country like Mozambique does not confront AIDS aggressively and lets it get out of hand, that could set back development for 200 years,” Chavez said.

Statistics are difficult because reporting is spotty and some countries mask the problem, Gareth Jones of UNAIDS said in Geneva. But he estimates 14 million Africans have full-blown AIDS or are infected with HIV.

The epidemic varies widely from country to country.

Half of African deaths have been in Uganda, which was hit the hardest at the beginning. Now intensive awareness campaigns have brought down the Ugandan figures dramatically. But that is the rare good news.

“Everywhere else, we’ve made almost no inroads,” Jones said. “Some leaders deny the problem. Many men refuse to use condoms, or can’t get them. At this point, everyone is hoping for a vaccine.”

Central and southern Africa are worst off, from Kenya down through Zimbabwe. Botswana, which escaped early outbreaks, is “in horrible shape,” Jones said, citing a new report not yet released.

South Africa and Mozambique are less affected but are in serious danger of getting worse quickly.

In West Africa, Ivory Coast has seen a dramatic rise. But in nearby Senegal, where authorities and volunteers quickly set up an education campaign, the incidence is far lower.

Michel Lavollay, a U.N. consultant on AIDS in Africa, worries that outsiders and Africans themselves have let down their guard.

“People aren’t talking about it much anymore,” he said. “But the epidemic is not going away, and in many places it’s getting worse. The early predictions are coming true. We have a real catastrophe.”