U.N. Inspections in Iraq Deemed Badly Crippled

Even if Saddam Hussein has backed down, the United Nations program to find and dismantle Iraq’s deadliest arms may now be so badly handicapped that inspectors are unlikely to ever complete their mission, U.N. and U.S. officials privately warn.

A secret Iraqi plan to abolish the inspections and new efforts by Russia and other countries to dilute the power of weapons inspectors are together seriously eroding the U.N.’s ability to ensure destruction of all of Iraq’s nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and ballistic missiles.

“There’s only a remote chance the U.N. will be able to finish its job,” a senior U.N. diplomat said.

The primary problem is in Baghdad, the officials said. Iraq plotted secretly in 1995 to terminate the inspection program, according to Iraqi officials, and their president’s recent challenges to the U.N. effort have stemmed from that plan.

Last October, Iraq ordered the expulsion of American weapons inspectors, precipitating a crisis that was resolved at the last minute by Russian intervention. The current crisis has centered on Baghdad’s refusal to allow any U.N. inspectors access to so-called presidential sites, where Iraq is suspected of storing weapons.

Iraq’s Oct. 29 decision “to expel the U.N. team in charge of inspecting weapons of mass destruction . . . was . . . neither sudden nor reactive,” Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan said during a little-noticed meeting with Jordanian officials late last year that was monitored by U.S. intelligence. “It was planned two years ago, and the decision was made after a series of Iraqi leadership meetings.”

The Times obtained a transcript of Ramadan’s remarks.

According to Ramadan, Hussein’s original plan was delayed after the 1995 defection of his son-in-law, Hussein Kamel Majid, who managed programs involving weapons of mass destruction. The defection set off events that led U.N. teams to massive new data on Baghdad’s secret arms programs.

“Kamel’s defection changed plans and compelled the Iraqi leadership to administer the battle in another direction in order to contain the situation created by Kamel,” Ramadan said at his meeting with Jordanian officials.

But the Iraqi campaign was revived last fall because of the “U.S. intention to create a new state of affairs,” he said.

The Clinton administration last year toughened its stand on when economic sanctions imposed on Iraq in the wake of Baghdad’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait might end.

The conflict over inspection teams in October “was the start of the battle, and not its end,” Ramadan said.

The plan is “irrevocable,” and Baghdad is prepared for “all developments, including confrontation, which is expected at any time,” Ramadan added.

The comments confirmed long-standing U.S. and U.N. fears that, as it is doing now, Baghdad intends to provoke ongoing challenges in an attempt to undermine or destroy the U.N. Special Commission, or UNSCOM.

“So even if Saddam Hussein gives in on all points this time, it’s unlikely the U.N. will return to where it was before this crisis because he’s taken the decision to challenge UNSCOM,” said Kenneth Pollack, a former U.S. official now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “In the future, he’s likely to be at least as obstreperous and obstructive as he was in the past. He’ll delay inspectors, undermine their mission and threaten their safety.”

The other long-term problem afflicting the inspection program is at the United Nations itself.

UNSCOM has begun to be weakened by subtle but significant challenges to its staff makeup, reporting process and oversight committee, U.N. and U.S. officials say.

“UNSCOM was diagnosed with a terminal disease in October. The only issue is how long before it dies,” said a Western diplomat in New York.

Russia has quietly but persistently pushed to alter UNSCOM by adding as many as 60 Russians either for inspections or analysis work at U.N. headquarters. The publicized aim is to make UNSCOM more effective, although the proposal also responds to Iraq’s demand that U.S. influence on the commission be diminished and the percentage of American personnel reduced.

Moscow also proposed that UNSCOM Chairman Richard Butler, an Australian, take on a Russian deputy. His current deputy is an American.

France, which like Russia has urged that the U.N. ease rather than tighten restrictions on Iraq, also last year foisted a French political advisor on Butler’s office.

“The French also want to have more influence and to know what’s going on,” a Western diplomat said.

In addition, Russia and other countries have argued that U.N. reports on Iraq’s progress in destroying its weapons should be based not on recommendations by Butler but on a consensus of the 21-member Special Commission, the oversight board of nonspecialists that had been meeting every six months. That formula would dilute the inspection program’s effectiveness, current and former U.N. officials said.

“It’s difficult to reach consensus among countries with different interests,” said Jonathan Tucker, a former U.N. inspector who is now director of the chemical and biological nonproliferation project at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. “You end up with the lowest common denominator. It’s like having a [football] huddle where all the players call the play rather than the quarterback. It could paralyze the work.”

Empowering the oversight commission would also allow the political and economic agenda of member states to play a bigger role in determining what course of action UNSCOM should pursue and whether Iraqi disarmament efforts should be rewarded at each step or only after all arms have been eliminated.

Russia’s moves are widely believed to be part of its eleventh-hour deal with Baghdad in November that defused the previous showdown over inspections. The terms were never publicized, although Ramadan disclosed at the meeting with Jordanian officials that the deal’s eight points centered on “striking a balance” of nationalities on UNSCOM, honoring Iraq’s “sovereign” sites--a reference to presidential compounds--and easing sanctions.

Russia and France have been among the countries supporting a compromise that will allow nonspecialists to be added to UNSCOM teams that investigate Iraq’s presidential sites.

That sets an ominous precedent, former inspectors said.

“Having to drag around other people and convince them each time that they have a right to do something or to go someplace will choke down the lifeblood of effective inspections,” warned David Kay, a former inspector now with the Center for Counterterrorism Technology and Analysis near Washington.

“The danger is that UNSCOM becomes a paper tiger,” said Phebe Marr, author of “The Modern History of Iraq.” “If its effectiveness keeps getting whittled down, it will become an empty vessel that provides only the illusion of monitoring. And that could be more dangerous than having no monitors at all.”