Halfway Into Term, Zedillo Stands at Historic Juncture

Three years after he took office as a politically inept, accidental president, Ernesto Zedillo appeared to be on a roll.

At the halfway point of his presidency last month, the 46-year-old economist had brought the country from a desperate recession to sizzling growth. He had encouraged elections that gave opposition parties their first real power in national government in 70 years. And he had just won a major economic victory--persuading a feisty, opposition-controlled Chamber of Deputies to pass his budget.

But Zedillo didn’t have long to savor his victories. The massacre of 45 peasants in the southern state of Chiapas--allegedly by gunmen linked to the ruling party--horrified Mexicans just days before Christmas and presented Zedillo with a fresh crisis.

The president condemned the slayings and moved quickly to arrest suspects. But the massacre has added to persistent questions about whether Zedillo will be the Mexican leader who manages to break the mold--encouraging an emerging democracy and completing his six-year term without its ending in crisis.

Zedillo is facing challenges from the old guard in his party, and he presides over weak institutions. Meanwhile, his hands-off approach to politics has dismayed many Mexicans accustomed to a powerful presidency.

Some say that Mexico’s democratic revolution has no leader.

“Zedillo is a Mexican Gorbachev. Like Gorbachev, he applies economic theory to politics, thinking that market forces will take care of everything,” said political columnist Raymundo Riva Palacio, referring to the Soviet president who ushered in the demise of his Communist nation. “But in countries that have so much upheaval, and have been closed for so long, you need a leader that guides the transition.”

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The evolution of Mexico’s political transition has profound consequences for California and the rest of the United States. A surge of political violence or the rise of a populist demagogue could slow the economy of a key U.S. trading partner and send waves of immigrants north.

If Mexico succeeds in its political reforms, however, the benefits will be immense. With a stable economy, Mexico could tackle the poverty and unemployment that prompt migration. And it could regain control of the security forces that have helped drug traffickers turn this country into a springboard for cocaine and heroin entering the United States.

“This is not an evaluation of a normal presidency. It’s a historic crossroads,” historian Lorenzo Meyer said.

Zedillo took office in December 1994 pledging to continue the free-market revolution engineered by his predecessor, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, and to reform an authoritarian system dominated by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, for seven decades.

But for most of the past three years, Zedillo has been consumed by a disastrous recession that followed a botched peso devaluation early in his administration. The economic crisis demoralized and shrank what had been an emerging middle class.

After applying harsh measures to stabilize the economy, Zedillo now can boast of 7% annual growth and soaring exports.

At the same time, he helped restore legitimacy to Mexico’s political system through reforms that gave Mexico City its first elected mayor and contributed to unprecedented opposition gains in July balloting.

But concern lingers over how well Zedillo will handle the political transition.

The Yale-educated economist was thrust into power by a tragic twist of fate--the 1994 assassination of the PRI candidate, Luis Donaldo Colosio, in Tijuana.

Zedillo is still considered more a numbers-cruncher than a back-slapper, with little taste or aptitude for politics.

“Zedillo could put out the fire of the economic crisis of ’95 and resolve the lack of prestige of the electoral system,” said Jesus Silva-Herzog Marquez, a political analyst. “Zedillo is a good fireman. But he’s not an architect. He’s not imagining a new political system.”

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Zedillo’s main political challenge is consolidating Mexico’s emerging democracy. The country is still far from having strong, democratic institutions to replace the twin pillars of its recent past--an all-powerful presidency and a disciplined, all-embracing party.

“We are increasingly moving to American-style politics” with an active Congress and opposition parties, said Luis Rubio, a political consultant. “But we have no courts, no civil service, no rule of law. Below the structures, we have nothing.”

The absence of law is particularly obvious in impoverished Chiapas, the site of a brief 1994 uprising by the left-wing Zapatista rebels. While a cease-fire between the government and the rebels has held, pro-government and pro-Zapatista groups have been skirmishing for nearly three years, with the result that more than 100 people have been killed. Human rights groups say local state and judicial authorities have tacitly supported the pro-government groups, feeding the violence.

Despite the bloodshed, the federal government had largely ignored the Chiapas problem since its negotiations with the Zapatista rebels broke down in September 1996.

Zedillo has recognized the crisis in Mexico’s legal system and has successfully pushed some reforms. But the inefficient, frequently corrupt justice system has been overwhelmed by a crime rate that has soared as the authoritarian regime declined.

Fewer than 5% of crimes are solved. Police run kidnapping rings and help drug cartels. Business executives do nearly anything to avoid courts that are frequently corrupt and inefficient.

The biggest test of Mexico’s emerging democracy is still more than two years away--the presidential election in 2000--but it already dominates national politics.

If things go right, the vote will mean the first stable and democratic presidential succession in Mexico.

But obstacles are looming--chief among them the president’s own party. Many powerful members, often nicknamed “dinosaurs,” oppose the political and economic changes that have cost them power.

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One of their leaders, Manuel Bartlett, who governs Puebla state, recently declared publicly that he wants to be president. In a highly disciplined system in which the president has always anointed his successor, it was an unprecedented challenge and the latest sign of the old guard’s tenacity.

Last year, its members used a party convention to ban “technocrats” with little political experience--like Zedillo--from running for top posts. There is no second presidential term in Mexico.

More recently, the “dinosaurs” also reportedly vetoed Zedillo’s attempt to place an ally, Esteban Moctezuma, in the party presidency.

“The problem of the PRI is that it’s controlled by people who believe the past was better,” Rubio said.

Many observers are concerned that divisions within the PRI could spark violence. The possibility frightens many Mexicans who believe that political motives were behind Colosio’s unsolved slaying.

Political turmoil is not the only risk facing Zedillo. Mexico has seen economic upheaval at the end of every presidential term in the past two decades because of political uncertainty and misguided economic policies aimed at helping the PRI.

Still, if some say the awkward technocrat is an unfortunate choice to father Mexican democracy, others believe that Zedillo may succeed.

The president has braved unpopularity to implement his economic policies, and he is determined to break the cycle of crises at the end of presidential terms, his backers note. And, despite his lack of enthusiasm for politics, Zedillo may be able to face down the “dinosaurs.”

If the economy continues to grow strongly, the PRI will be in a good position to win the elections in 2000, analysts say. That could strengthen Zedillo’s hand and unify the party.

In addition, Zedillo has suddenly shown some unexpected political skill. He success in persuading the opposition-dominated Chamber of Deputies to approve his annual budget last month confounded those who predicted that legislators would impose runaway spending or cause a government shutdown.

“He’s been able to learn very quickly how to maneuver within the confines of divided government,” said Federico Estevez, a political scientist. “Clearly, these guys [Zedillo’s administration] were more savvy than people thought.”