Sexual Allegations Damage Clinton's Popularity Rating

By MARK Z. BARABAK

Jan. 25, 1998 12 AM PT

TIMES POLITICAL WRITER

New allegations of sexual misconduct have taken a substantial toll on President Clinton’s popularity, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll, which also found that Americans are evenly divided over whether the president encouraged a former White House intern to lie about the nature of their alleged relationship.

Although most appear willing to forgive Clinton if he had a sexual relationship with Monica S. Lewinsky--and a plurality believe he did--Americans by a margin of 2 to 1 said the president should resign or be impeached if he lied about his conduct or sought to obstruct justice.

Further, the controversy appears to have slightly eroded confidence in the president’s honesty and integrity, although his overall job performance appears relatively unscathed.

“People still think he’s running the country well. But his Teflon is wearing thin,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Times Poll. “If there are more revelations, it doesn’t bode well for the president.”

Already, a significant majority believe the allegations will interfere with Clinton’s ability to function as president for the remainder of his term. One third of those responding believe Vice President Al Gore will be politically harmed by the controversy, while 57% say it will make no difference to him.

At the same time, Americans have formed somewhat conflicting views about Kenneth W. Starr, the independent counsel who has conducted an investigation of the Clinton administration for the last 3 1/2 years.

Although most believe Starr is simply doing his job in pursuing the latest allegations, clear-cut majorities object to some of the methods Starr has used in his investigation.

More broadly, a sizable majority believe that Starr has been acting more out of partisan motivation than a desire to ascertain the truth.

Overall, Americans have been closely following the latest allegations to hit the White House, with 96% expressing at least some familiarity with the matter.

The Times Poll was conducted Friday and Saturday among 1,191 adults nationwide. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The survey found only a slight dip in Clinton’s job-approval rating, from 63% positive last September to 59% in the latest survey.

But even so, Clinton’s personal favorability rating dropped notably, from 59% in September to 48% in the latest survey, as Americans appeared to be drawing a distinction between job performance and the president’s personal character. His unfavorability rating increased to 45% from 35%. Half feel he has the honesty and integrity to be president, whereas 41% suggest he does not.

“I think it’s a pattern,” said one respondent, Mary Merrill, 63, a retired insurance broker in Hopkinton, N.H., who said she thinks Clinton is lying about his relationship with Lewinsky. “I think the man has a problem with sex.”

Forty-four percent of those surveyed believe Clinton had a sexual affair with the 24-year-old Lewinsky, despite the president’s repeated denials. Thirty-three percent believe the president, and 22% are undecided.

In the same vein, 48% believe Lewinsky was telling the truth when she detailed a sexual relationship with the president in secretly recorded tapes. One third believe Lewinsky was telling the truth in a legal affidavit she signed denying any sexual relationship. About a fifth are undecided.

The respondents are virtually split on whether Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie to cover up their alleged affair--which the president also vehemently denied. Forty-two percent believe Clinton urged Lewinsky to lie, and 44% believe Clinton’s denial.

Pinkus suggested many are waiting for the swirl of rumors and revelations to settle down before making up their minds.

“I think people have a wait-and-see attitude,” she said. “It’s something they don’t want to believe. They’ve seen the president weather a lot of allegations before and want to see if these charges develop into something more serious.”

Mike Christiansen, a 49-year-old carpenter in Middleton, Idaho, was among those who felt torn. “I don’t like Clinton to begin with, so I’d sort of like to give [Lewinsky] the benefit of the doubt. But because it’s a man in his position, I’m kind of stuck in the middle. I don’t like him personally, but I respect the office.”

The overwhelming majority of those surveyed appear willing to forgive the president if, in fact, he had an affair with Lewinsky. Thirty-one percent said having an affair would be reason enough for Clinton to resign, but 62% disagreed.

“We have these feelings that presidents should only be the best and brightest and have the highest possible morals,” said Julie Turner, 56, of Portland, Ore. “But presidents are human beings. And in [Clinton’s] case, we knew this was an issue.”

Turner, however, drew a sharp distinction between having an affair and trying to cover it up. “If he were to encourage someone to lie, that’s a horse of a different color,” Turner said.

Indeed, most Americans draw a similar distinction. Fifty-one percent said he should be impeached and 10% said he should resign rather than face impeachment if it turns out he lied about his alleged relationship with Lewinsky. Sixty-one percent said Clinton should be impeached and 9% said he should resign if he sought to obstruct justice.

“When Nixon was in the White House and lied about tapes and others things, they were going to impeach him and force him out,” said Glen Edmonds, 55, a preacher in Birmingham, Ala. “What’s good for one is good for the other. If we’ve got a president who’s lying, how can we trust him?”

Women, who have always voted in greater number for Clinton, continue to have a more favorable perception of the president than men do and tend to believe his version of events.

Among different age groups, respondents between the ages of 18 and 29 tend to be his harshest critics and register the greatest falloff in the president’s favorability rating.

Clinton suffered some erosion within his Democratic base, but members of his own party tend to be far more supportive than the public at large. Half of the Democrats surveyed said they believe Lewinsky’s denial of a sexual relationship, whereas 68% of Republicans believe she was telling the truth when she spoke of an affair on the audiotapes.

As the allegations unfold, the conduct of independent counsel Starr has also emerged as an issue. In particular, Lewinsky’s attorney, William Ginsburg, has assailed Starr’s handling of the investigation.

Overall, 55% of those surveyed said Starr--who was originally appointed to investigate the Whitewater land deal and collapse of an Arkansas savings and loan--is simply doing his job by pursuing the allegations involving Clinton and Lewinsky, whereas 35% believe the independent counsel has overstepped his bounds.

At the same time, however, large majorities object to some of Starr’s investigative tactics.

For instance, 61% object to the use of a hidden recorder to capture conversations between Lewinsky and a confidant, Linda Tripp, who was cooperating with Starr’s investigation. Seventy-three percent felt Starr went too far when he questioned Lewinsky without counsel present and threatened to involve Lewinsky’s parents in the matter as a means of forcing cooperation.

More generally, 60% feel that Starr’s investigation is driven by partisanship, whereas 27% believe he is motivated to get at the truth.

As to whether Lewinsky should be granted immunity from prosecution in return for her testimony, 46% oppose immunity, 37% are in favor and 17% are undecided.

Associate Times Poll Director Sharon Pinkerton contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

A Question of Leadership

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

59% approve

36% disapprove

Source: The Times Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Clinton’s Rating

What is your impression of Bill Clinton? Is it. . .

Favorable

Now: 48%

Sept. 1997: 59%

Unfavorable

Now: 45%

Sept. 1997: 35%

***

Have you heard or read about allegations that President Clinton had an extramarital affair with a former White House intern? If yes, how much have you heard?

No, have not heard: 4%

Yes, a lot: 56%

Yes, some: 24%

Yes, a little: 16%

***

If it is true that President Clinton had an extramarital affair wth a former White House intern, do you think he should resign from office?

Resign: 31%

Don’t resign: 62%

Don’t know: 7%

***

How important an issue do you think this is to the nation?

Great importance: 34%

Some importance: 21%

Very little importance: 23%

No importance: 21%

Don’t know: 1%

***

How seriously do you think these recent allegations will affect Clinton’s ability to lead during the last three years of his presidency?

Destroy ability to lead: 10%

Diminish ability to lead: 43%

Blow over: 42%

Don’t know: 5%

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% where some answer categories are not shown.

How The Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,191 adults nationwide by telephone Jan. 23-24. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with Census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Source: The Times Poll

Times Poll data can also be accessed on the World Wide Web at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Times Poll / A Matter or Truth

Forty-four percent of the public believes that President Clinton had an affair with former White House intern Monica S. Lewinsky. However, they are more evenly divided over whether he encouraged her to lie about it. If the charges prove true, the public wants Clinton held accountable.

Do you think it is true or untrue that President Clintonhad an affair with former White House intern Lewinsky?

True: 44%

Untrue: 33%

Haven’t heard enough/don’t know: 23%

***

Do you think it is true or untrue that President Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie under oath about the alleged affair?

True: 42%

Untrue: 44%

Haven’t heard enough/don’t know: 14%

***

If Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie under oath, he should. . .

be impeached: 61%