Milosevic’s Slippery Slope

The violence in Yugoslavia’s Kosovo province springs from the arrogant rule of President Slobodan Milosevic, a bombastic thug who runs his country as Mafia dons once ran New York. There is a case to be made, and many have done so, that the United States and its NATO allies ought to bring him down with military power. Former Senate leader Bob Dole and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) pressed that approach on these pages earlier this week. Their arguments cannot be dismissed, but there’s a better course.

Any NATO military action against the Serbian army units suppressing rebellious Kosovars would only heighten tensions between the two peoples, which have lived side by side for centuries but never without cultural and political conflict. What NATO and Western diplomacy pulled off in Bosnia-Herzegovina, establishing a fragile but working government among Serbs, Croats and Muslims, would be far harder to achieve in Serbia with its hardened ethnic antipathies.

The frightening prospect of all-out civil war may be presaged by the ruthless tactics of Milosevic’s Serbian forces, which badly overplayed their hand in suppressing a minor rebel movement in the province. Now his Serbian-led army is faced with containing a province populated by increasingly radicalized opponents.

Western officials who have met with Milosevic in recent months call him a clever leader but a blowhard. Yes, he has a formidable army, certainly strong enough to contain his enemies one at a time. But he’s beginning to make mistakes, and this should be the moment for NATO countries to try to turn the tables.

Remember, it was less than two years ago when a rebellious populace marched night after night through the streets of Serbia, protesting the president’s repressive rule and his government’s annulment of opposition victories in municipal elections across the country. Milosevic is in a bigger fix now, and increased Western pressure, including additional United Nations sanctions, could encourage a surprising amount of popular support, even enough to topple or badly damage the regime.

There may come a time for direct military action against Milosevic, but for now what’s required is a relentless tightening of the screw. Washington and its allies should make no deals with this tyrant except one assuring his departure. He’s beginning to look like history.