Independents’ Day Was in June for O.C. Voters

More than twice as many independent voters went to Orange County polls last month than in the last comparable election in what was the highest statewide voter turnout for a primary since 1982.

Supporters of the state’s new blanket primary say the numbers show that the new law allowing people, regardless of party affiliation, to vote for any candidate is drawing more citizens into election booths.

In the June primary, 51,455 of the county’s independent voters cast ballots, compared to 24,944 four years ago, according to a computer analysis done for the Times Orange County edition by Newport Beach political analyst Dick Lewis.

That increase made independents the fastest-growing batch of voters, according to figures from the county Registrar of Voters. Advocates of the blanket primary argued that the new system would prod more election participation, especially among independent voters who were unable to cast ballots in party primaries.

The turnout of independents--those who decline to state a party affiliation or who are registered with minor parties--is still well below that of the Republicans and Democrats.

The new election rules appeared to have wooed the major parties as well, according to the new figures. About 40,000 more Republicans voted last month than four years ago--the last time the state had a primary for governor--as did 31,000 more Democrats.

Despite the growing pool of nonaligned voters, Republicans and Democrats still dominate the county’s 1.18 million registrants. The GOP accounts for 51% of registrations, with Democrats grabbing 32%. Registrants in the remaining six minor parties, plus 145,000 voters who decline to state any party affiliation, make up the remaining 17%.

The new figures confirm anecdotal evidence from exit polling in June that showed greater participation statewide by nonaligned voters, said Casey Beyer, chief of staff to Rep. Tom Campbell (R-San Jose), a key supporter of blanket primaries.

“In past elections, independent voters didn’t have much of a reason to vote,” because many minor parties don’t field candidates in most races, he said. “Now they want to vote, because they have their pick of candidates. Everyone else does too. This is bringing a broader type and number of voters into the process.”

Campbell was an organizer two years ago of Proposition 198, which created the blanket primary. Its passage was challenged in court by the state Republican and Democratic parties, which argued it was unconstitutional and would unfairly allow voters of other parties to influence the selection of the opposing party’s nominees.

The old primary system of voting for candidates only within a voter’s party had been in place in California since 1959.

California Republican Party Chairman Michael Schroeder said he’s still opposed to the blanket primary as a “terrible idea.” The influx of new voters didn’t make much of a difference to outcomes in Orange County, he said.

The only race where crossover voting outside of a candidate’s party appeared to have affected the outcome was in the U.S. Senate race between businessman Darrell Issa and state Treasurer Matt Fong, he said.

A study of crossover voting by the Secretary of State’s office showed Issa with more GOP votes than Fong, who won on the strength of Democratic voters.

“Obviously, we’re going to be analyzing this election from the standpoint of how to win in November,” Schroeder said.

California Democratic Party official Bob Mulholland said another factor contributed to increased turnout overall--the millions spent by car-alarm magnate Issa and millionaire Democratic gubernatorial candidates Al Checci and Rep. Jane Harman on television advertisements. Checci, in particular, directed some of his mailed campaign appeals to independent voters, who traditionally have leaned toward Democratic candidates statewide, he said.

“For most of these independent voters, the only party they’ll come to is the one at the neighborhood bar,” Mulholland said. “We win them in the end because we’re not ideological, and they’re more comfortable with that kind of thinking.”

The jump in Orange County’s turnout percentages in June is also attributable to the culling of bad registrations from the voter rolls. When nonvoters are removed from the rolls, the percentage of turnout increases.

In May, Secretary of State Bill Jones predicted a higher-than-normal 42% statewide turnout, partly on the basis of a 1.1 million decline in the number of registered voters in the state since 1996.

On Tuesday, the close of the state’s election canvass, the official turnout for the June primary was 42.1%, well ahead of the 34% turnout for the primary four years ago, according to the state agency.

“This was a record turnout and we think this will be a trend,” said Beth Miller, an agency spokeswoman.

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Turnout Triumph

June’s open primary attracted more than double the number of independent/minor party voters than voted in the last comparable election--the 1994 gubernatorial contest. This year’s turnout was even higher than the 1996 presidential primary vote:

Independent/Minor Party Turnout

*--*

Number Pct. 1998* 51,455 26.2 1996** 47,814 27.0 1994* 24,944 18.2

*--*

* Gubernatorial election year

* Presidential election year

Political Scene

The two major parties still dominate the county political scene, both in terms of registration and percentage of registrants turning out to vote:

June 1998 Registration

Republican: 51.2%

Democrat: 32.0

Others: 16.8

June 1998 Turnout

Republicans: 45.4%

Democrats: 43.2

Others: 26.2

Source: Orange County registrar of voters office; Researched by DICK LEWIS/For The Times