Alarcon-Katz Vote Shows a Divided Valley

Results from each precinct in the hotly contested 20th District state Senate primary show a Valley divided: City Councilman Richard Alarcon’s win came from the northeast San Fernando Valley, while opponent Richard Katz’s support came from the southeast Valley.

The 25 precincts in which Alarcon had the strongest showing are all north of Victory Boulevard and east of the San Diego Freeway, and the 25 in which Katz had the strongest showing are all south of Victory Boulevard.

While the results are exactly what many political pundits had predicted, a Times computer-assisted, precinct-by-precinct analysis of the vote underscores just how much geography and concentrated block-by-block campaigning counted in the closest race in last month’s primary election.

It also showed the stark contrast between the northeast Valley, which has a large Latino population, and the southeast Valley, which has a greater proportion of whites.

Alarcon, a Latino Democrat who took on well-known and seasoned fellow Democrat Katz, who is Jewish, pulled out a narrow 29-vote victory in the June 2 election.

Although the contest was marred by accusations of racial fear-mongering, Alarcon attributed the victory in part to a healthy turnout of voters in Pacoima, San Fernando and other northeast Valley communities, where electoral enthusiasm has traditionally been tepid.

Alarcon received the highest vote percentages in San Fernando, Sun Valley and Pacoima. He garnered more than 90% of the vote in one Pacoima precinct and more than 85% in two others. Katz’s strongest showings were in Reseda, Studio City and North Hollywood.

In other ways, however, the Valley distinguished itself little in the primary vote. It gave strong support, for instance, to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis, as did the rest of the state.

Likewise, votes on Proposition 227, the measure to curb bilingual education programs, and Proposition 226, the measure to put new reins on union political contributions, roughly paralleled the state-wide votes.

The Valley defeated Proposition 226 by a 58% to 42% margin; statewide, the measure lost 53% to 47%. The Valley supported Proposition 227 by a 62% to 38% margin; statewide, voters also supported it, 61% to 39%.

Political analysts caution against concluding that purely ethnic loyalty swung the Alarcon-Katz race.

Steven Afriat, a Valley-based Democratic political consultant, said even with the demographic changes of recent years, few believe the majority of voters in the northeast Valley are Latino. Although growing, Latinos are still a minority.

Said Alarcon consultant James Acevedo: “If we had targeted one ethnic group over another, we would have lost the campaign. . . . I don’t know why people don’t see that.”

What Alarcon’s victory shows as much as anything, Afriat said, is more--not less--colorblindness in politics.

“You will see more candidates elected to seats regardless of whether they reflect the ethnic makeup of their districts,” Afriat predicted. If Alarcon wins, Afriat said, “he [Alarcon] would not be representing a Latino district.”

But even Alarcon doesn’t discount the weight of so-called “low propensity” Latino voters in the race. Latino voters represented 12% of the electorate in the June primary, double the percentage of the 1994 primary, according to Times exit polls.

The numbers show there were enough votes in any one of the top Alarcon precincts in the heavily Latino northeast Valley to swing the election. The same could be said for the top Katz precincts.

Alarcon’s campaign focused heavily on getting out the vote in the northeast Valley on election day.

Alarcon said the idea was simply to target voters from his City Council district--which primarily covers the northeast Valley--because they were the ones who might be expected to know his name.

The geography of precinct votes should come as no surprise to anyone, Katz campaign consultant Harvey Englander said. Nor is the new presence of Latino voters a surprise, he said. “Obviously, the Valley is changing just as every community is changing.”

Katz, who is deciding whether to ask for a recount, has expressed outrage over the racial tone of Alarcon’s effort. Alarcon has apologized--but took no responsibility--for a last-minute mailer that falsely linked Katz to intimidation of Latino voters. Katz has declined to accept the apology.

The apparent split between Jewish and Latino voters that the feud represents is deeply unsettling to some Democratic loyalists, who fear it may be a damaging legacy of the campaign.

But for campaign consultants, the long-term lesson of the Katz-Alarcon race may be that old-fashioned campaigning methods shouldn’t be counted out.

Knocking on doors, making phone calls, putting up signs, going to public meetings--these were the meat and potatoes of the Alarcon campaign, his campaign workers said.

“Despite all the impact of high-dollar media and far-flung mail campaigns,” said Eric Bauman, spokesman for the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, “we are back at a point where, to get California motivated, you have to do two things: Increase . . . the ability to vote by mail, and on election day, you have to turn the voters out.”

“We didn’t do anything different,” Acevedo said. “They say it’s all done in the mailbox. . . . But in every campaign that I’ve done, I’ve found when you touch people and talk to them, it increases participation significantly.”

It’s a lesson seasoned political analysts had better heed, Democratic consultant Rick Taylor said. “It will make consultants earn more of their money,” he predicted.

“Campaigns have to be smarter . . . you can’t depend just on polls.”

Times data analyst Sandra Poindexter contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Political Geography

This map shows the areas, by ZIP Code, in which Richard Alarcon and Richard Katz received their strongest support in the election for the 20th District state Senate seat. Areas were determined by pinpointing the top 25 precincts in which each candidate dominated the voting in the June 2 election.

KATZ: 91335, 91403, 91423, 91604, 91602, 91607, 91401 & 91606

ALARCON: 91342, 91340, 91345, 91331, 91605 & 91352