Taking Your Best Shot at the O.C. Fair

There are plenty of chances to take home a “South Park” doll at the Orange County fair, but the likelihood of it lies with luck, skill--and a 25% formula.

There are tricks to the trade of fair games, but like Las Vegas, payoffs are based on probability figures from an analysis of the games. Tony Fiori, marketing director of Ray Cammack Shows, which runs the games at the fair, expects to lose 25% of the games played at carnival stands.

Whether one sees that as a glass that is a quarter full or three quarters empty, the bottom line is that the games are a business.

“A big prize costs between $20 and $28,” Fiori said. “To stay in business we have to make the big-prize games hard.”

It is difficult to get a grasp of the winning percentage at the fair. Walking around the fairgrounds it looks like everybody has a stuffed animal or hat.

“We want to see people win,” Fiori said. “The public is smart. They are not going to come back if they just keep losing. It’s good for business to see people walking around, having a good time and carrying around prizes.”

But the bigger prizes are for the harder games, like the rope ladder climb. On an average night, a small crowd of 20 or more people will watch a person attempt to crawl across the 10-foot, horizontal rope ladder and hit a buzzer.

The ladder is connected to the structure at a single swiveling joint on both ends. A giant inflated air bag lies underneath.

To convince people the ladder is negotiable, the game’s manager, Clarence Coleman, zips across, rings the bell, then hops off. At times he will even walk across to show the simplicity.

“I learned it in 20 minutes,” Coleman said. “It’s all about body control.”

But getting across the ladder on all fours is like trying to walk on gelatin. The ladder will spin at the slightest shift in weight, allowing most patrons only a couple rungs before falling into the air mattress a couple feet below.

“This really big [muscular] guy tried it, but he was shaking like a leaf,” Coleman said. “The little kids are better at this than the grown-ups.”

In many of the games, size matters a lot less than precision. “Tip ‘em Over,” challenges a patron to knock over four cast aluminum milk bottles, two on top of the others, with a softball.

Rick Thompson, who has managed the game for 10 years now, has been accused by players of rigging the game with magnets, and some sore losers have even thrown beers at him. According to Thompson--who denies using magnets--the game is not how hard you throw the ball, but where contact is made.

“Big beefy guys throw wild and get mad when they don’t hit anything,” Thompson said. “I give away 75 to 100 dolls on a good weekend. It’s a good game. Hard but good.”

There are a few games that guarantee victory, or at least some sort of prize. The dart games, either throwing at balloons or at a Pooh Bear picture, give anyone who tries a small prize.

Brian Wall, 13, and Dillon Grifis, 14, of Santa Ana, are big believers in the darts. The pair carried off a bounty of prizes including two hats and three large “South Park” dolls won at various games. But the pair also had six framed photos won at dart stands.

If you want prizes, “go for darts, but don’t aim,” Wall said.

“Throw where most of the holes in the wall are,” Dillon added, “but don’t concentrate.”

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Try Your Luck

While skill is needed, a little luck never hurt anybody. The standard rule is, the smaller the prize, the better the chance for success. Big prizes mean greater odds against you, but that does not mean the game is impossible to beat. There is simply a right, a wrong and a lucky way to win at every game.

GAME: HOOPS

No shooter’s bounce here--to make a bucket it’s got to be a rimless shot.

Fair rims are oval, with only 4 inches of leeway on the sides.

Basketball is 30 inches in circumference. Standard basketball rim is 18 inches in diameter.

GAME: MILK BOTTLE TOSS

Also called “Tip ‘em Over,” it’s a stack of four cast aluminum milk bottles. The sweet spot is the exact center of all four. Strength is not as important as accuracy.

GAME: LADDER CRAWL

The object is to maintain balance up the nine rungs and hit a buzzer without flipping onto the air mattress a couple feet below..

Ladder is a 10-foot rope ladder, which is connected with a single swiveling joint at both ends.

Researched by YUNG KIM/ Los Angeles Times