The Primary Reaction? It’s No Surprise

For winners, losers and viewers, primary election night was thankfully one of the shortest. Virtually every race was decided early because most of the conventional wisdoms of California politics were confirmed: Experience counts; party loyalty is important; money still talks and citizens have no patience with bad government.

Gray Davis and Matt Fong won, not because voters were disgusted with their opponents’ money, but because--especially with the governorship--voters like to support candidates with the background and preparation that appear to underscore competence and ability.

Wealthy, experienced candidates who hold high-level offices (e.g., Dianne Feinstein in 1994) are still formidable. But Californians won’t entrust the leadership of an extraordinarily complex state with the world’s seventh-largest economy to anyone who suffers from a “stature gap.” That was Kathleen Brown’s problem in 1994 and Jane Harman’s in 1998. For Gray Davis, however, the plodding on-the-job training proved to be a silver bullet.

We also know that money still talks because it allowed labor bosses to flood the airwaves again with distortions and deceit to defeat an initiative that would restore democracy and fairness to political decisions by unions. The same pundits and editorialists who lather up over “smear” tactics by individual candidates will repeatedly ignore ugly demagogues by favored institutions. So--with Proposition 226--laughably silly claims that paycheck protection would bring back sweatshops, destroy Medicare, stop HMO reform and shred pension rights once again ruled the day. Liberals embrace ugly divisiveness when the cause involves preserving their power.

So why did Proposition 227 pass? Easy. Informed Californians--with such issues as the property tax revolt of Proposition 13 and the abolition of race and gender preferences by Proposition 209--will repair obvious failures of government. Current bilingual policies are conspicuous failures. So voters responded with democracy’s command: change.

Looking at the Road Ahead:

Lungren vs. Davis: Davis’ problem is of his own making, not Jerry Brown’s. He’s cast thousands of votes for mostly liberal, sometimes leftist policies. His judicial and executive branch appointees very likely will be ruinous to California’s progress in the new millennium. But Dan Lungren needs to pay attention to the scariest part of The Times’ election day exit poll: 64% of all voters and even 18% of Republicans believe Lungren’s party should not “continue to hold the governor’s office for another four years,” and that it is “time for a change to the Democrats.”

Fong vs. Boxer: Matt Fong--the highly experienced officeholder who is an Air Force Academy graduate, jet pilot and lawyer with a business degree--is going against the single biggest unifying influence in the Republican Party. Fong showed an ability to attain crossover Democrat votes and matches Barbara Boxer as one of the most recognizable names in California politics. Though burdened with low public approval ratings, Boxer is shrewd, facile and a tireless gut-fighter. Fong’s task is not easy.

However, Boxer already has signaled that she’ll try to stay in Washington above the fray. If she dodges debates and avoids the rough and tumble of campaigning, she’ll go down to defeat. Young Republican activists will elbow each other over who gets to don a chicken suit to follow Boxer around with the sign: “This Boxer won’t fight.”

Don’t Count Dornan Out: If Bob Dornan had abandoned his quixotic and hopeless presidential quest in 1996, he still would be in Congress and running a major committee. He was not--and is not--out of touch with the 46th Congressional District, and he is still the best stump campaigner in the solar system. He’s so relentless, he will probably be fluent in half a dozen of the district’s foreign languages by election day (I exaggerate only slightly). Bring on Clinton, Gore and the Green Bay Packers--Dornan will be one tough opponent.

The “X Factor”: And finally, we come to the criminal investigation of the president of the United States. The Starr trek is on a likely course that results in a cosmic explosion for Democrats who cling to their faith in Clinton. Their smug little hope that it will all backfire against Republicans is the triumph of unreality as caldrons of political hot oil are about to be poured on the Big Fella’s hapless loyalists.

Some cliches are worth repeating: Let the games begin.