Odds Are Big ‘Cap Favorite Will Not Be First to the Wire

A favorite hasn’t won the Santa Anita Handicap since Best Pal in 1992, and favorites have lost seven of the last nine runnings of the race.

So if you’re principal owner R.D. Hubbard, trainer Richard Mandella or jockey Pat Day, maybe it’s just as well that Silver Charm, not Gentlemen, is the morning-line favorite for Saturday’s 61st Big ‘Cap.

Linemaker Jeff Tufts’ preliminary odds were just as difficult to divine as Gary Stevens’ decision to ride Silver Charm over Gentlemen in the race. After five horses were entered Thursday, Tufts installed Silver Charm as the 4-5 favorite and made Hubbard’s Gentlemen the second choice at even money. Tufts is not saying that Silver Charm will win; his job is to project how the money will be is bet on the race.

Mandella, who won the Big ‘Cap last year with Siphon, while Sandpit and Gentlemen completed an unprecedented trifecta for his barn, takes no umbrage at Silver Charm’s favored status.

“That’s not for me to decide,” Mandella said. “The people with the money make that decision.”

Gentlemen went off as the 17-10 favorite last year, then finished three lengths behind his stablemate, Siphon, who was the third choice at 5-1. Gentlemen hasn’t lost on dirt since then, rolling up four consecutive victories on the main track.

The best Mandella can hope for Saturday is to complete an exacta with Malek, his other horse in the race.

Because of the summit battle between Silver Charm and Gentlemen, two of the best horses in training, there is more “Who do you like?” conversation going on than usual before a big race. Santa Anita’s racing department has cast its vote for Gentlemen, but not by much. He will carry 125 pounds, one more than Silver Charm. Had the race been run before March 1, Silver Charm would have received a pound simply because he is the younger horse, but after March 1 the weights reflect a raw evaluation of the rivals.

A straw poll of trainers on the Santa Anita backstretch showed heavy support for Gentlemen. Ron McAnally’s assessment is typical, and buttressed by the fact that he has won three Big ‘Caps--two with John Henry, one with Mr Purple--and has finished second twice behind Silver Charm with Mud Route this year.

“When both of these horses won on the same day [Feb. 7], I thought Gentlemen was more impressive and gave him the edge,” McAnally said. “But then I thought Gentlemen was capable of--what do they say--bouncing [regressing] in his next race. But that last workout of his [six furlongs Saturday in 1:10 3/5] shows that he should still be on his game. This will be Silver Charm’s fourth race already this [season], and that might be taking its toll.”

Gentlemen won the San Antonio Handicap on Feb. 7 in his first start in 4 1/2 months. The same day, Silver Charm won the Strub, running two-fifths of a second faster at the same distance, 1 1/8 miles.

After winning last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness and finishing second to Touch Gold in the Belmont in June, Silver Charm didn’t run again until Dec. 26, when he finished second to Lord Grillo in the Malibu. Then the gray colt won the San Fernando three weeks before the Strub. The Big ‘Cap will be Silver Charm’s fourth race in 72 days.

“I can’t separate the two, either talent-wise or based on what they did the last year and a half,” Stevens said. “I have no idea what’s going to happen Saturday--all I know is that we’re in store for a great race.”

Stevens, who has won the Big ‘Cap three times, based his decision to ride Silver Charm mostly on the ages of the horses. Silver Charm is a 4-year-old, two years younger than Gentlemen, and Bob and Beverly Lewis, who race Silver Charm with trainer Bob Baffert, would like to keep their horse on the track next year.

Baffert was slightly disturbed that Silver Charm drew a post position inside Gentlemen for the 1 1/4-mile race, but on reflection he concluded that his colt and Stevens will be all right.

“With only five horses, there aren’t any bad posts,” Mandella said.

This is the way they will break, with jockeys, weights and morning-line odds:

Malek, Alex Solis, 115 pounds, 10-1; Silver Charm, Stevens, 124, 4-5; Gentlemen, Day, 125 pounds, even money; Don’t Blame Rio, Kent Desormeaux, 110, 30-1; and Bagshot, Corey Nakatani, 112, 12-1. This is the smallest field since only two other horses ran when Alysheba beat Ferdinand in a 1988 battle of Kentucky Derby winners.

“This is the epitome of what racing’s all about,” Mandella said. “It’s unique that we have two horses of this caliber coming along at the same time. It’ll be a shame that one of us won’t win.”

Horse Racing Notes

First post Saturday is noon, with the Santa Anita Handicap scheduled for 4:17 p.m. . . . There are two $150,000 stakes on the card, the San Carlos Handicap at seven furlongs and the Arcadia Handicap at one mile on grass. In the San Carlos, Elmhurst, third in his only start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, will carry high weight of 119 pounds. Funontherun, who beat Elmhurst in the Palos Verdes Handicap, is also entered, along with Anet, who is winless since finishing first in the Del Mar Derby. . . . Northern Afleet, who won the San Carlos last year, will try to end a four-race losing streak in the Arcadia. Pinfloron, second in last year’s Arcadia, will try again. The high weight, A Magicman, beat a good field at a mile in an allowance on Feb. 13. Rainbow Blue, second in that race, is also running.

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An Upsetting Trend

How favorites have done in recent years in the Santa Anita Handicap: *--*

Year Favorite Odds Finish Winner Odds 1997 Gentlemen 17-10 3rd Siphon 5-1 1996 Helmsman 5-2 4th Mr Purple 18-1 1995 x-Best Pal 3-2 2nd Urgent Request 3-1 1994 y-The Wicked North 9-5 4th Stuka 15-1 1993 Best Pal 7-5 5th Sir Beaufort 11-1 1992 Best Pal 17-10 1st 1991 Farma Way 9-10 1st 1990 Bayakoa 19-10 10th Ruhlmann 22-1 1989 Nasr El Arab 7-5 8th Martial Law 50-1 1988 Alysheba 1-1 1st

*--*

x-Part of an entry; y-finished first, disqualified and placed fourth.