Sliding Into Danger

Back in November, the U.S. Geological Survey’s “National Landslide Hazard Outlook” put forth a warning that should have gotten more attention. “Late 1997 and 1998,” said the report’s opening sentence, “may be years of exceptional landslide activity.” That has certainly come to pass in many parts of California during this El Nino winter. But there are no easy answers about what should be done.

The severe and widespread slide damage led state Insurance Commissioner Chuck Quackenbush to briefly consider and then reject a bad idea: another state-sponsored insurance program, similar to the California Earthquake Authority, to insure against slide damage. First, such programs provide too little coverage at too much cost. Second, national disaster insurance, similar to the federal flood insurance program, would make better sense. Finally, slide protection has been largely abandoned by private insurers since the 1950s for one very persuasive reason: Insuring homes built on disaster-prone hillsides presented unreasonable risks.

Unfortunately, this winter the threats go far beyond established danger zones to include hillsides that endured through previous flood and earthquake disasters, like those home-bearing slopes that collapsed recently in Studio City and West Hills. The USGS finds the situation in the Bay Area so grave that it has warned that any home on an incline steeper than 20 degrees could be at risk. That’s not much steeper than a wheelchair ramp.

The warning considerably expands the number of owners of homes on soggy hillsides who ought to be on the lookout for danger signs. These include leaning or bent trees; new or growing cracks in walls, foundations, driveways, patios and walkways; doors and windows that are suddenly more difficult to open or close; standing water and ground that remains soggy long after the rains have stopped, and new erosion and growing erosion. When these signs are seen, call a soil geologist.

Vigilance can provide days of warning, enough to remove personal items and evacuate safely. It probably won’t save homes that are already headed for disaster, but it can save lives in deluged areas.