No Mabees When It Comes to Assessing Derby Chances

This time of year, it’s not unusual to hear a trainer say: “My owner’s got Derby fever.”

This sends the trainer to the phone, to make shipping plans for Arkansas or Kentucky or New York, where some track will be running a prep race for the Kentucky Derby. Then the horse will run a strong half-mile before finishing eighth or ninth.

The trip will have cost thousands of dollars. But by now, Derby fever is out of control. Even a reality check, the Derby future-book odds in Las Vegas, won’t derail the outlandish plan. So it’s on to Churchill Downs, where the tab to race in the Derby can run to $50,000, counting all the expenses. The colt draws an outside post position in a 20-horse field. The only jockey available is a bug boy from Fairmount Park. Just before the start, the horse is so close to the crowd that he’s distracted by a guy hawking mint juleps. He’s tardy leaving the gate and finishes 17th. The rest of his career consists of three starts, spaced over two years, and he never wins another race.

An exaggeration? Partly. But John and Betty Mabee have seen so many scenarios like this that they know the downside to running a horse in America’s most famous horse race is immense. “I’m not going to run a 20-1 shot back there just to get my name in the program,” John Mabee said. “The Derby’s a race that everybody wants to win, but it’s a big hype scene, and there are many horses that have broken down trying to run that mile and a quarter.”

For this honesty, the Mabees’ many trainers are thankful. Bob Baffert, who has Souvenir Copy, one of last year’s best 2-year-olds but a bust this season, can tinker with the colt away from the floodlights of Louisville. Wally Dollase, who trains the lightly raced, immature Prosperous Bid, can shoot for the shorter Preakness, two weeks later than the Derby. And Moonlight Meeting, also from Dollase’s barn, might have a future on grass.

That leaves Event Of The Year, another of the Mabees’ Derby eligibles, who’s stabled with Jerry Hollendorfer at Bay Meadows. There’s no Derby fever there; when you’ve got an undefeated colt in mid-March of his 3-year-old year, it’s hard to draw the shades on Churchill Downs.

Event Of The Year, a son of Triple Crown champion Seattle Slew out of a Mr. Prospector mare, has run only three times, his last start a nifty 3 1/2-length win in the El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows.

“The Santa Anita Derby [April 4] might seem like the logical spot,” John Mabee said, “but we don’t want to throw him to the wolves just yet.”

The options are the Jim Beam Stakes on March 28 at Turfway Park and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 11.

Turfway might be the better spot. After Favorite Trick won the Swale Stakes last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, trainer Bill Mott said the 1997 horse of the year, undefeated in nine starts, would run in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 11. But now Mott is hedging between the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby. No wolf that big will show up at Turfway.

The Mabees weren’t even supposed to own Event Of The Year by now. Part of their operation at Golden Eagle Farm in Ramona is commercial breeding, and this colt, solid on pedigree, was scheduled to be sold at Keeneland’s July yearling auction in 1996. But veterinarians noticed a glaring fault in Event Of The Year: He had only one good eye.

“If we had tried to sell him, he wouldn’t have brought anything,” John Mabee said.

Instead, Event Of The Year was sent to what John Mabee calls “a dog-and-cat doctor.” A cataract was removed and now the colt has 90% vision in his right eye.

“If that hadn’t been done, this horse would have been long gone by now,” Mabee said.

One of the charms of the Kentucky Derby is that it draws all kinds, and should Event Of The Year make the trip to Churchill Downs, he would not be the first sight-impaired horse to run there. The one-eyed Cassaleria, running for the 20/20 Stable, for goodness sake, finished 13th in 1982.

But Churchill Downs needn’t reserve a stall for Event Of The Year just yet. In more than 40 years of racing, which include two Eclipse awards as breeder of the year, Golden Eagle has sent only one horse--Best Pal, second to Strike The Gold in 1991--to the Derby. Event Of The Year won’t be force-fed into the grinder.

“There are a lot of other races around that you can have fun with,” John Mabee said. “I’m not a big fan of going all out just to get there.”

THE HOME STRETCH

Moonlight Meeting, making his grass debut, ran second behind Ladies Din in Friday’s Pirate Cove Handicap. . . . Real Connection, a one-eyed 7-year-old mare, ends her racing career today in the Santa Ana Handicap. She has won seven of 63 starts and earned $1 million. . . . Ladbrokes, the British bookmakers, have made Silver Charm the 5-4 favorite for the $4-million Dubai World Cup, which will be run a week from today. Predappio is next at 5-1, followed by Behrens, 7-1, and Malek, 8-1. . . . Frankie Dettori, Predappio’s jockey, will ride Sunday in the Santa Anita International Jockey Challenge. A European team consisting of Dettori, Mick Kinane, Olivier Peslier and Kieran Fallon will oppose the U.S. group of Gary Stevens, Jerry Bailey, Eddie Delahoussaye and Laffit Pincay in four races. . . . Comic Strip, winner of the Louisiana Derby, will prep for the Kentucky Derby by running in the Flamingo Stakes on April 4. . . . Mike Smith, thought to have cracked his collarbone in a spill last Saturday at Gulfstream Park, actually suffered a broken shoulder and will be sidelined from three to six months.