43% Southland Population Jump Seen by 2020

Raising questions about how to accommodate growth, a new report forecasts that the population of a six-county Southern California region will increase about 43%--to about 22.35 million--by 2020.

A continuing strong birth rate in the region, particularly among Latinos, will be the main cause of the growth, forecasters said.

The most dramatic percentage increase, 169%, is expected in northern Los Angeles County, including Lancaster, Palmdale, Santa Clarita and unincorporated High Desert areas, according to the study, recently approved by the Southern California Assn. of Governments. The report’s projections for 2020 all use 1994 as the base year.

Western Riverside County areas, such as Moreno Valley, Hemet and Temecula, also are seen as boomtowns. The number of residents there is predicted to more than double as families continue to move to outlying suburbs in search of cheaper housing.

An extra 6.7 million people in Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside, San Bernardino and Imperial counties will be the equivalent of “adding two Chicagos to Southern California,” the report said.

The city of Los Angeles alone will have 4.89 million residents, a 34% rise, by 2020, the report said. San Diego County was not included in the area studied.

Analysts warn that such growth will raise many concerns about transportation, air pollution, water resources, schools and general quality of life.

Commented Mark Pisano, executive director of the governments association: “The fundamental issue, without a question, for Southern California is: Can we put together the wherewithal to support the growth that we anticipate and is coming?”

Of particular concern, he said, is that many new jobs will be in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties that are far from new homes in outlying neighborhoods. To avoid gridlock, the association advocates a menu of transportation improvements such as more carpool and truck lanes, freeway extensions into growth areas, more local shuttle buses and a regional system of high-speed trains.

Andrew Malakates, a population specialist for Los Angeles County, said he agreed in general with the report’s projections but cautioned that overcrowding might cause people to leave the region and lower the overall numbers.

“If you assume from what you see that the quality of life would be adversely affected, the next thought is: Wouldn’t that impact the projections? I think it would,” he said, adding that the governments association should have studied that possibility more.

The Moreno Valley Unified School District, for example, has experienced the turmoil caused when families can no longer stomach excruciating commutes and decide to sell or abandon homes, said Willie Williams, the district’s facilities director. That exodus, combined with personnel cuts at March Air Force base, caused the net loss of about 3,000 students from the peak enrollment of about 32,000 five years ago, he said. Now, enrollment is rising again, but the key to substantial growth is to get more jobs in the local area, he said.

A recent city survey in Santa Clarita showed that 64% of its employed residents spend more than half an hour each way getting to and from work and that 45% would take a 10% pay cut in exchange for a local job.

“As many jobs as we can create here, we will have people to take them,” said Michael Haviland, economic development manager for Santa Clarita.

Latinos will constitute the largest ethnic group in the region, as they already do in Los Angeles County, the report predicts. By 2020, Latinos will compose about 40% of the six-county area’s population; whites will be 39%; Asians, 12%; blacks, 9%.

Drop in Immigration Seen

Foreign immigration to the region is expected to decrease about a third from current levels, according to demographers. That is a result of tougher U.S. immigration policies and anticipation that improved economies and political situations in Latin America will cause more people to stay in their native countries.

While the overall numbers may seem startling, the annual projections for Southern California growth actually are smaller than the numbers seen before the early ‘90s recession. The growth “is normal if we don’t have another recession or earthquake or other calamity,” said Vivian Doche-Boulos, the governments association manager of forecasting.

The report’s estimates for the six-county region in the year 2020 were lower by about 1 million people than numbers issued by the state Department of Finance last year.

For the next 22 years, the association estimates yearly population increases of 1.3% to 1.6%, compared to rates of more than 2% in the late ‘80s. Because of foreign immigration, Southern California never lost population during the economic downturn, although annual increases dipped below 1% in 1994, the nadir year.

Among the six counties, Riverside is reported to be in line for the highest percentage growth, 104.5%, to 2.81 million people, between 1994 and 2020. In sheer numbers, Los Angeles County is forecast to grow the most, seeing its population rise by 3.01 million, or 32.6%, to a total of 12.24 million. The report expects Orange County in 2020 to have 3.24 million people, up 25%; San Bernardino County, 2.83 million, up 81.5%; Ventura County, 932,300, up 31%; and Imperial County, 280,000, up 102%.

The forecast for Riverside County did not surprise Ted Rozzi, director of facilities for the Corona-Norco Unified School District. “It’s going to be a challenge, to say the least, but it’s something we will have to take care of,” said Rozzi, who is in charge of building campuses to accommodate the boom.

Over the next five years, his district is expected to see enrollment rise 8,000 from the current 32,000. And much more is ahead since area developers have permits for at least 10,000 new houses and have their eyes on other open lands, Rozzi said. Voters recently approved a $65-million school construction bond issue to supplement state and other funds.

Water needs can be met through a combination of extra flow from the Colorado River and other sources, new storage facilities and conservation, suggest officials of the Metropolitan Water District, which serves wide swaths of the region. However, household rates probably will increase to pay for the extra pipelines and reservoirs, such as the enormous $2-billion Eastside Reservoir under construction in the Hemet area.

“The good news is that there will be 6.5 million more people to contribute to solutions with water rates,” said Ed Means, MWD deputy general manager. Although assuring availability of the additional water will not be easy, he expressed confidence that it can be done.

Prospects for new jobs look fine except for their locations, according to the report. The region is expected to see total jobs rise by 3.9 million, or 60%. However, the South Bay, Westside, Glendale, Burbank and Orange County are forecast to add many more jobs than residents, creating more commuter problems.

As has been traditional in California, unincorporated areas are poised for a very large proportion of new housing. And that might, in turn, trigger new efforts to form cities by residents fearful about uncontrolled growth, experts say.

Southern Californians could face a real decline in the quality of life unless local and state governments discourage sprawl and encourage more access to mass transit, contended Steve Sanders, director of the California Futures Network, a group that is working against uncontrolled sprawl.

“I am fearful if we don’t change our assumptions about how people are housed and how and where they work and how they get around,” he said.

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Population Surge

By 2020, Southern California will absorb a population increase equivalent of two Chicagos, with the most dramatic rise, 169%, in northern Los Angeles County, according to data from the Southern California Assn. of Governments. Western Riverside County areas such as Moreno Valley and Hemet will also be boomtowns. The already densely populated city of Los Angeles will have 4.89 million residents, a 34% rise.

RIVERSIDE COUNTY: 105%

IMPERIAL COUNTY: 102%

SAN BERNAR. COUNTY: 82%

L.A. COUNTY: 33%

VENTURA COUNTY: 31%

ORANGE COUNTY: 25%

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Growth from 1994 to 2020

(1) North L.A. County: 169%

(2) Malibu-Agoura Hills area: 44%

(3) City of Los Angeles: 34%

(4) Glendale-Burbank area: 27%

(5) San Gabriel Valley: 22%

(6) Southeast L.A. County: 19%

(7) South Bay: 13%

(8) Westside: 11%

*

Density

People per sq. mi.:

City of L.A. in 2020: 10,421

London ‘97: 10,456

Tokyo ‘97: 36,607

Sources: Southern California Assn. of Governments; “California Cities, Towns and Counties, 1998”; World Book Encyclopedia

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Population Forecast

Growth in population in key Southland areas:

COUNTIES

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1994 2020 L.A. 9,231,600 12,249,100 Orange 2,595,300 3,244,600 Ventura 709,900 932,300 Riverside 1,376,900 2,816,000 San Bern. 1,558,600 2,830,000 Imperial 138,400 280,000

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****

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1994 2020 N. L.A. County 451,000 1,213,400 City of L.A. 3,656,700 4,890,900 Malibu/Agoura Hills 75,300 108,300 Westside 227,000 253,000 South Bay 819,000 925,600 S.E. L.A. 1,982,100 2,368,600 Glendale/Burbank 538,000 684,100 San Gab. Valley 1,482,000 1,805,700

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Source: Southern California Assn. of Governments