43% Southland Population Jump Seen by 2020

Raising questions about how to accommodate growth, a new report forecasts that the population of a six-county Southern California region will increase about 43%--to about 22.35 million--by 2020.

The population of Orange County is expected to reach 3.24 million during the period, an increase of 25%.

A continuing strong birth rate in the region, particularly among Latinos, will be the main cause of the growth, forecasters said.

The most dramatic percentage increase, 169%, is expected in northern Los Angeles County, including Lancaster, Palmdale, Santa Clarita and unincorporated High Desert areas, according to the study, recently approved by the Southern California Assn. of Governments. The report’s projections for 2020 all use 1994 as the base year.

Western Riverside County areas, such as Moreno Valley, Hemet and Temecula, also are seen as boomtowns. The number of residents there is predicted to more than double as families continue to move to outlying suburbs in search of cheaper housing.

An extra 6.7 million people in Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside, San Bernardino and Imperial counties will be the equivalent of “adding two Chicagos to Southern California,” the report said.

The city of Los Angeles alone will have 4.89 million residents, a 34% rise, by 2020, the report said. San Diego County was not included in the area studied.

Analysts warn that such growth will raise many concerns about transportation, air pollution, water resources, schools and general quality of life.

If the report’s projections are accurate, “then we are in deep, deep trouble,” said John F. Dean, Orange County superintendent of schools.

“Our schools are jammed today,” Dean said, adding that without major bond issues to pay for new facilities, the future could be dire.

“Our primary problem is lack of schools and no money to build them, even if we had the room,” Dean said. “Our No. 1 concern today is classrooms for the students--you can’t turn them away when they come to the door, you have to make room for them someplace.”

Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange, agreed that the major test of Orange County’s ability to deal with growth will be in the schools.

“That’s the only thing that makes me concerned,” he said, “because if we do not provide adequate education for these newborns, then when they enter the labor force in 20 years they will not be highly skilled, and that’s not positive. To me, public education is the most important element.”

But if that challenge can be met, Adibi said, the population growth could be positive.

“An increase in population means an increasing labor force, which means more production of goods,” he said. “And if economic conditions are healthy, there would be more tax revenue to provide additional services.”

Mark Pisano, executive director of SCAG, said, “The fundamental issue, without a question, for Southern California is: Can we put together the wherewithal to support the growth that we anticipate and is coming?”

Of particular concern, he said, is that many new jobs will be in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties that are far from new homes in outlying neighborhoods. To avoid gridlock, the association advocates a menu of transportation improvements such as more carpool and truck lanes, freeway extensions into growth areas, more local shuttle buses and a regional system of high-speed trains.

In Orange County, for instance, transportation specialists are planning freeway and bus-service improvements, as well as studying a possible light-rail system.

“We are optimistic,” said John Standiford, a spokesman for the Orange County Transportation Authority, “but it’s going to take constant investment. It’s not something where you can just come up with a plan, do a few projects and say that it’s done. An overall comprehensive plan must continue because the growth is going to continue.”

Andrew Malakates, a population specialist for Los Angeles County, said he agreed in general with the report’s projections but cautioned that overcrowding might cause people to leave the region and lower the overall numbers.

“If you assume from what you see that the quality of life would be adversely affected, the next thought is: Wouldn’t that impact the projections? I think it would,” he said, adding that the governments association should have studied that possibility more.

The Moreno Valley Unified School District, for example, has experienced the turmoil caused when families can no longer stomach excruciating commutes and decide to sell or abandon homes, said Willie Williams, the district’s facilities director. That exodus, combined with personnel cuts at March Air Force base, caused the net loss of about 3,000 students from the peak enrollment of about 32,000 five years ago, he said. Now, enrollment is rising again, but the key to substantial growth is to get more jobs in the local area, he said.

A recent city survey in Santa Clarita showed that 64% of its employed residents spend more than half an hour each way getting to and from work and that 45% would take a 10% pay cut in exchange for a local job.

“As many jobs as we can create here, we will have people to take them,” said Michael Haviland, economic development manager for Santa Clarita.

Latinos will constitute the largest ethnic group in the region, as they already do in Los Angeles County, the report predicts. By 2020, Latinos will compose about 40% of the six-county area’s population; whites will be 39%; Asians, 12%; blacks, 9%.

Drop in Immigration Seen

Foreign immigration to the region is expected to decrease about a third from current levels, according to demographers. That is a result of tougher U.S. immigration policies and anticipation that improved economies and political situations in Latin America will cause more people to stay in their native countries.

While the overall numbers may seem startling, the annual projections for Southern California growth actually are smaller than the numbers seen before the early ‘90s recession. The growth “is normal if we don’t have another recession or earthquake or other calamity,” said Vivian Doche-Boulos, the governments association manager of forecasting.

The report’s estimates for the six-county region in the year 2020 were lower by about 1 million people than numbers issued by the state Department of Finance last year.

For the next 22 years, the association estimates yearly population increases of 1.3% to 1.6%, compared to rates of more than 2% in the late ‘80s. Because of foreign immigration, Southern California never lost population during the economic downturn, although annual increases dipped below 1% in 1994, the nadir year.

Among the six counties, Riverside is reported to be in line for the highest percentage growth, 104.5%, to 2.81 million people, between 1994 and 2020. In sheer numbers, Los Angeles County is forecast to grow the most, seeing its population rise by 3.01 million, or 32.6%, to a total of 12.24 million. The report expects San Bernardino County in 2020 to have 2.83 million people, up 81.5%; Ventura County, 932,300, up 31%; and Imperial County, 280,000, up 102%.

The forecast for Riverside County did not surprise Ted Rozzi, director of facilities for the Corona-Norco Unified School District. “It’s going to be a challenge, to say the least, but it’s something we will have to take care of,” said Rozzi, who is in charge of building campuses to accommodate the boom.

Over the next five years, his district is expected to see enrollment rise 8,000 from the current 32,000. And much more is ahead since area developers have permits for at least 10,000 new houses and have their eyes on other open lands, Rozzi said. Voters recently approved a $65-million school construction bond issue to supplement state and other funds.

Water needs can be met through a combination of extra flow from the Colorado River and other sources, new storage facilities and conservation, suggest officials of the Metropolitan Water District, which serves wide swaths of the region. However, household rates probably will increase to pay for the extra pipelines and reservoirs, such as the enormous $2-billion Eastside Reservoir under construction in the Hemet area.

“The good news is that there will be 6.5 million more people to contribute to solutions with water rates,” said Ed Means, MWD deputy general manager. Although assuring availability of the additional water will not be easy, he expressed confidence that it can be done.

Prospects for new jobs look fine except for their locations, according to the report. The region is expected to see total jobs rise by 3.9 million, or 60%. However, the South Bay, Westside, Glendale, Burbank and Orange County are forecast to add many more jobs than residents, creating more commuter problems.

As has been traditional in California, unincorporated areas are poised for a very large proportion of new housing. And that might, in turn, trigger new efforts to form cities by residents fearful about uncontrolled growth, experts say.

Southern Californians could face a real decline in the quality of life unless local and state governments discourage sprawl and encourage more access to mass transit, contended Steve Sanders, director of the California Futures Network, a group that is working against uncontrolled sprawl.

“I am fearful if we don’t change our assumptions about how people are housed and how and where they work and how they get around,” he said.

Times staff writer David Haldane contributed to this report.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

County Population by 2020

Orange County is projected to undergo a 25% population increase between 1994 and 2020. That would boost to 3.2 million the number of residents. San Juan Capistrano and Anaheim would experience the largest percentage gains.

Projected O.C. Population (in millions): ’20 3,245,000

City Growth, 1994-2020

Anaheim: 37%

Brea: 7%

Buena Park: 10%

Costa Mesa: 7%

Cypress: 10%

Dana Point: 19%

Fountain Valley: 7%

Fullerton: 14%

Garden Grove: 7%

Huntington Beach: 9%

Irvine: 30%

Laguna Beach: 21%

Laguna Niguel: 15%

La Habra: 4%

La Palma: 8%

Los Alamitos: 2%

Mission Viejo: 3%

Newport Beach: 11%

Orange: 5%

Placentia: 19%

San Clemente: 13%

San Juan Capistrano: 44%

Santa Ana: 11%

Seal Beach: Less than 1%

Stanton: 28%

Tustin: 15%

Villa Park: 9%

Westminster: 25%

Yorba Linda: 7%

Unincorporated areas: 113%

Countywide: 25%

Note: Laguna Hills and Lake Forest not available

*

PROJECTED POPULATION INCREASE BY COUNTY

RIVERSIDE: 104%

IMPERIAL: 102%

SAN BERNARDINO: 81%

VENTURA: 31%

ORANGE: 24%

Source: Southern California Assn. of Governments

Population Forecast

Growth in population in key Southland areas:

COUNTIES

*--*

1994 2020 L.A. 9,231,600 12,249,100 Orange 2,595,300 3,244,600 Ventura 709,900 932,300 Riverside 1,376,900 2,816,000 San Bern. 1,558,600 2,830,000 Imperial 138,400 280,000

*--*

****

*--*

1994 2020 N. L.A. County 451,000 1,213,400 City of L.A. 3,656,700 4,890,900 Malibu/Agoura Hills 75,300 108,300 Westside 227,000 253,000 South Bay 819,000 925,600 S.E. L.A. 1,982,100 2,368,600 Glendale/Burbank 538,000 684,100 San Gab. Valley 1,482,000 1,805,700

*--*

Source: Southern California Assn. of Governments