Developing Outlying Airports Won’t End Region’s Crisis
Just as controversial water decisions made nearly a century ago fundamentally shaped Southern California’s 20th-century development, so will contentious and imminent airport decisions mold the region’s global future. At issue is whether to expand Los Angeles International Airport, with $8 billion to $12 billion in new runways, terminals and ground-access improvements, or focus development on the region’s outlying airports at Palmdale, Ontario and El Toro.
The stakes are enormous. Adequate international and air-cargo airport capacity is key to Southern California’s future as a global trade center and tourist mecca. By exporting locally produced, high-value-added goods and services, LAX contributes more to the region’s economy than do the San Pedro Bay ports, which increasingly serve as transshipment centers for Pacific Rim imports. Airport expansion, such as proposed at LAX, could mean 400,000 new regional jobs and $40 billion in new income by 2015. But this potential could be lost to competitors, such as Las Vegas and Seattle, if sufficient facilities are not built in a timely fashion. Decisions regarding the LAX Master Plan and a proposal to convert El Toro into an international airport will be made within the next 18 months.
A growing chorus of LAX critics contend that building more runways and terminals at overcrowded LAX will lead to massive traffic gridlock, unacceptable air pollution and noise, and, with more flights in congested skies, reduced passenger safety. They claim that outlying airports, particularly Palmdale, can better meet the region’s future aviation needs. The battle over LAX expansion pits a business community and belatedly supportive mayor against a coalition of public officials and residents of the Westside, South Bay and Antelope Valley.
Yet, LAX opponents seriously underestimate the obstacles to near-term development of outlying airports while overestimating the negative effects of planned LAX expansion, particularly upon surrounding communities. In the late 1960s, Los Angeles unveiled plans for a new international mega-airport in Palmdale that was ballyhooed as the ultimate solution to the region’s airport problems. Connected by high-speed rail to densely populated areas, the airport would feature space shuttles, SST’s and jumbo jets landing on 17,000 acres bought in the Antelope Valley.
Today, Palmdale is no closer to fulfilling its Tomorrowland promise than 30 years ago. Recently, the only air carrier providing commuter service from Palmdale to LAX shut down, citing insufficient passenger demand. Although California’s high-speed rail commission has recommended a Palmdale-Los Angeles link in its proposed $20-billion-to-$30-billion statewide network, voter approval will be difficult to obtain and ridership is uncertain. The image of the Metropolitan Transit Authority driving itself to near-bankruptcy with wasteful spending is firmly etched in the public consciousness and colors voters’ judgment. Accordingly, the prospect of raising billions more dollars for a high-speed rail system to remote Palmdale is a pipe dream.
In the absence of high-speed rail, few time-conscious air travelers from the Basin will drive heavily congested Highway 14 to catch a flight. Palmdale is 63 miles from downtown L.A.; it’s 97 miles from John Wayne Airport. At peak traffic hours, this translates into a two-hour commute from downtown, three hours from Orange County. Over the next 20 years, as freeway congestion intensifies, the peak-period commute will lengthen by an hour, even with planned carpool lanes on Highway 14.
Because of Palmdale’s remoteness and the limited number of potential air passengers who live in the area, regional planners estimate that, in 20 years, its airport would attract less than 1% of the region’s total air travelers. Even assuming that a high-speed rail line was built, the airport only would serve 2.2% of the region’s air travel needs. Airlines know this, which is why Palmdale is not on their radar screens as a place to invest in new facilities.
They also know Palmdale is located in the wrong place. The region’s looming airport-capacity crisis lies not in the sparsely settled north but in the fast-growing, heavily populated east and south--the Inland Empire, Orange and San Diego counties. Here, too, airport alternatives are limited. Ontario has become the region’s second major airport for domestic passengers and air-cargo service, and could resume limited international service, primarily to Mexico. Yet, its ability to serve as a safety valve for LAX is constrained by state-imposed air-quality ceilings on passengers and flight operations, which are quickly being reached. The Inland Empire’s closed or realigned military bases--Norton, George and March--have air-cargo potential but cannot replace LAX’s menu of long-haul and international passenger service.
While the Orange County Board of Supervisors has approved El Toro as a midsized international airport capped at 24 million annual passengers--40% of current LAX levels--its conversion could be delayed or blocked. Neighboring Lake Forest has sued to halt the project. Irvine is trying to annex El Toro to prevent the airport conversion. The courts have rejected the project’s environmental impact report, ordering a redraft. El Toro has become the dominant issue in the upcoming supervisorial elections; foes are fielding candidates in a concerted effort to reverse the board’s narrow 3-2 pro-airport vote. Even if El Toro is built, it would be able to capture only a modest share of LAX’s market.
With Palmdale, Ontario and El Toro failing to offer realistic, near-term alternatives, the LAX Master Plan deserves careful scrutiny. The real cost-benefit comparison involves planned versus unplanned expansion. Should NIMBYites succeed in preventing planned expansion, LAX passenger volumes will continue to grow anyway--to 70 million annual passengers or more from the current 60 million--because of the full menu of flights and lack of alternative regional air service. Yet, the costs of the no-build alternative are substantial. Not only would air service suffer, delays increase, and jobs and economic activity be lost to the region, there would be no planned mitigation of the traffic, noise and air-quality effects that worry neighboring Westchester, Playa Del Rey, El Segundo and Inglewood.
While LAX opponents emphasize the doubling of overall passenger demand by 2015, reputedly creating gridlock on streets and freeways nearby, much of this growth consists of connecting commuters who don’t leave the airport. Since airline deregulation, the major carriers have abandoned secondary markets and consolidated operations at hub airports, where they can provide numerous flights to multiple destinations. LAX, designed as an origin-and-destination airport for local travelers, has evolved into the region’s hub airport for air commuters from San Luis Obispo to San Diego. Today, one-third of its operations are commuter planes. The Master Plan envisions building a commuter runway, thereby adding a third arrival stream and separating small and large aircraft.
As for growth in origin-and-destination passengers, which does affect regional transportation, planned expansion calls for a modest 16% increase. Major ground-access improvements are designed to minimize traffic congestion, including an airport “ring road” linking freeways to terminals and an automated people-mover system among terminals. As a result, traffic on adjacent roads is projected to be reduced by 6% to 10%, and peak period speeds on I-405 likely to remain at 20 mph to 30 mph. Without mitigation, traffic congestion will worsen.
Airports have become the Achilles’ heel of Southern California’s new globally based economy. While outlying sites are essential to a long-term regional solution, they face daunting near-term obstacles. The costs of unplanned LAX expansion, both to the region and its neighbors, are great. For the Master Plan to succeed, LAX needs to close a credibility gap with more than expensive public-relations campaigns. Past promises to its neighbors have gone unfulfilled. While LAX can be a national model for a clean, green and economically managed airport, it needs to demonstrate that it can be the architect and steward of compatible expansion in responsible partnership with its neighbors. Tough challenges lie ahead, particularly in meeting stiff federal and state air-quality standards. Yet, planned LAX expansion rather than remote Palmdale remains the region’s best near-term choice for ensuring its global future.
