Surplus of Low-Wage Jobs Seen in 5 Years

Even with thousands of low-income residents moving from welfare to work, Ventura County should have a surplus of 5,700 low-wage jobs by the year 2003, according a study by the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

In sharp contrast to Los Angeles County, which projects a dearth of jobs for welfare recipients, Ventura County is expected to have more than enough jobs for those transitional workers in the next five years.

New state and federal welfare laws place a five-year lifetime limit on aid, giving most welfare recipients two years to find work.

Between 1999 and 2003, 5,380 welfare recipients will need to find work in Ventura County. But a projected 11,100 entry-level jobs should be created during that same period, according to economist Frank Wen of the governmental council.

These include jobs that require less than one month of training, such as retail sales, cashiers, guards, food preparation workers, receptionists and janitors, Wen said.

County welfare officials had little trouble believing the forecast.

Indeed, Supervisor John K. Flynn will hold a press conference today celebrating the county’s success in working with Kaiser Aluminum in Oxnard to find jobs for more than 50 welfare recipients.

“In general, because we are in the good times of experiencing low unemployment rates, we are in a better position to implement welfare reform than in any other period in recent history,” said Helen Reburn, chief deputy director of the county’s Human Services Agency.

Ventura County’s unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% in April, the lowest figure since the pre-recession month of February 1990.

Wen cautioned, however, that the surplus does not mean that former welfare recipients will automatically receive available jobs.

“You will still have people not on welfare--like new high school graduates--competing for that same pool of jobs,” he said.

In Los Angeles County, in contrast, a comprehensive study by the nonprofit Economic Roundtable indicates that the number of aid recipients seeking jobs will vastly outnumber the jobs. The report projects an average of 2.5 job seekers for every new opening there.

Even with Ventura County’s job surplus, Reburn said obstacles remain to the welfare-to-work program known as CalWORKS.

“Our challenge is going to be not only to move CalWORKS families into entry-level jobs,” she said, “but to ensure that they keep those jobs, and that they are promoted . . . so they can actually support their families and have a better standard of living.”

She said finding child care and adequate transportation for those moving off welfare will also continue to be a challenge.

She said the county is working on ways to open more child-care facilities and find enough funding to subsidize it for low-income families.

She said one important step will be providing child care at night and on weekends, during the hours demanded by many entry-level positions.

She said child-care difficulties are often compounded by transportation problems for the workers struggling to get to work in this sprawling suburban county without a car.

“Dropping children off at child care then getting to work is hard enough during the day,” Reburn said. “It’s prohibitive at night.”

In the meantime, the county has made headway.

Supervisor Frank Schillo helped spearhead a pilot project to help three CalWORKS participants get cars and obtain the loans to pay for them.

The agency will report to the Board of Supervisors in June with recommendations on the efforts to sell refurbished cars to low-income residents. They hope to then turn the project over to a nonprofit group.

The county has also applied for a grant to implement a car-sharing program, modeled after successful European programs. It would allow welfare recipients to check out cars from lots around the county at modest cost to use for work or job training.

The county will hear next month whether the federal Department of Labor has agreed to fund the $2.2-million project.

And today, Supervisor Flynn will hold a news conference to highlight the success that Kaiser Aluminum has had in working with the county to employ welfare recipients.

So far, more than 50 Workforce Development clients have been placed in positions at Kaiser. More may be hired in the future.

“This is but one shining example that disadvantaged people, such as welfare recipients and unskilled workers, are willing to work to improve the quality of life for themselves and their families,” Flynn said in a statement. “All they needed was a chance.”