As Time Passes, Rivals’ Potential for Devastation Rises

Pakistan’s declaration about its new nuclear missile capability may involve a measure of chest-thumping exaggeration, yet U.S. experts believe that Pakistan--like rival India--may be only months away from the kind of destructive power each country claims.

Announcing its battery of nuclear weapons tests Thursday, the government in Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, proclaimed that its new Ghauri missile is “already being capped with the nuclear warheads to give a befitting reply to any misadventure by the enemy.”

Experts said this boasting--”Viagra diplomacy,” one called it--was intended to convey warning, and national pride, to India more than to communicate facts.

Even so, many said it appears that Pakistan is well on the way to overcoming the main technical problems involved in nuclear missile technology: mastering the guidance system; miniaturizing the nuclear warhead; and revamping the equipment so it can withstand heat, cold and vibration as it reenters the atmosphere.

The experts said Pakistan and India are also capable of devastating large sections of the other country with old-fashioned aerial bombs loaded onto aircraft, although such attacks have far higher odds of failure than a missile attack.

India, with Soviet-built SU-30 aircraft, is believed to have a handful of such aerial nuclear bombs prepared, although analysts say information on the number is scarce.

Pakistan, with U.S.-built F-16 and French-built Mirage fighter-bombers, has about a dozen such bombs.

In both cases, “the club [they can wield] is plenty big, even if it’s not as big as they claim,” one Clinton administration official said.

Pakistan’s new Ghauri missile has a range of about 930 miles, which would enable it to strike many big cities in India.

The missile was successfully tested April 6 in an event that was televised domestically for maximum effect. Analysts say Pakistan may have a handful of Ghauris at most.

There are signs that the missile is not ready for deployment, as the Islamabad government suggests. It has gone through only one flight test; usually, defense officials require five to 10 tests at a minimum, said Richard Speier, a missile expert formerly with the Pentagon.

“You don’t want your own nuclear missiles blowing up on launch,” he said.

Toby Dalton, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said Pakistan probably has many bugs to work out before it can smoothly join a warhead to a Ghauri.

Even so, he predicted that the country is probably only “several months away” from being able to accomplish that.

In addition to the Ghauri, Pakistan has perhaps as many as 36 M-11 missiles, which have a range of about 170 miles.

Arrayed against this is an Indian nuclear missile arsenal that, despite claims by Indian officials made after New Delhi’s nuclear tests earlier this month, probably needs some work before it is ready for use.

The latest generation of India’s new Agni missiles have a range of up to 1,600 miles, which would take them well into China. They are in the final stages of research and development.

India also has at least several dozen Prithvi missiles. Their range of about 200 miles would be sufficient to strike at most of Pakistan.

With a highly developed nuclear industry, India is believed to have enough fissile nuclear material for about 80 bombs, compared with 25 to 40 for Pakistan.

Missiles are considered more effective weapons because bombers can be shot down by surface-to-air missiles or other aircraft; so far, there is little protection against missiles that travel at nearly five times the speed of sound.

It also takes far longer to mount a bombing raid, compared with missile flight times that might be only three minutes from Islamabad to New Delhi.

Even so, analysts believe that Pakistan is fully capable even now of wiping out at least a handful of Indian cities, while India, with an air force of 770 planes, could do far more damage to its neighbor.

“With what they have even today, the damage would be tremendous,” said Andrew Koch, an analyst at the Center for Defense Information in Washington.

A next step in the arms race will probably see each country beginning the large-scale production of missiles. Such efforts require a huge industrial infrastructure, and for that reason, the much larger India will have a clear advantage.