Stock Market Barometers
Fundamental and technical indicators of the market’s health
Key indexes vs. their 200-day moving averages: A stock index’s 200-day moving average indicates the basic trend, up or down. It is generally bullish if the index stays above the average.
S&P; 500 (blue-chip stocks), Friday: 1,141.01
200-day moving average, Friday: 1,078.78
*
Russell 2,000 index (smaller stocks), Friday: 400.32
200-day moving average, Friday: 429.05
*
Price-to-earnings ratio of Standard & Poor’s 500: 25.13*
Based on operating earnings per share, 12 months ended June 30; average since 1923: 13.5
*
Dividend yield of the Standard & Poor’s 500: 1.44%
Average dividend yield of blue-chip stocks; avg. since 1923: 4.5%
*
Weekly new highs vs. new lows on the NYSE: 180/68
Data for the week ended Friday. More highs indicate a bullish trend.
Investment newsletter sentiment:
Stocks’ near-term trend as predicted by 135 independent investment newsletters, weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. The data are often viewed as a contrarian indicator: A rising percentage of bulls can signal a topping market.
Oct. 30
Bullish: 45.3%
Bearish: 39.3
Correction: 15.4
*
Friday
Bullish: 47.8%
Bearish: 38.3
Correction: 13.9
*
Put-call ratio: 0.43
The ratio of stock put options to call options traded last week on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Ironically, a low put-call ratio--under 0.40--can be construed as bearish because it indicates a high level of optimism, leaving a lot of room for disappointment.
* Now calculated based on operating earnings, which exclude one-time charges--so P/E is lower than if actual earnings were used.
Source: A.G. Edwards & Sons.
More information can be found at https://www.agedwards.com on the World Wide Web.
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