Stocks will rally despite extended dollar declines, markets survey finds

U.S. equities will put the worst of this year’s trade-war turmoil behind them and rally to fresh highs in 2025, according to a survey of Bloomberg subscribers who attended a panel discussion on macro trends.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index will climb to 6,500 points — a better than 9% increase from Thursday’s close — by year-end, according to 44% of the 27 responses in a Markets Live Pulse survey.

The index was seen reaching that level by the first half of next year by 26% of participants, with 11% saying it would happen in the second half and the remainder estimating 2027 or later.

A rally to 6,500 would likely mean the market fully moves on from concerns that President Trump’s tariffs may severely damage the economy. It would represent a substantial recovery from the impact of the trade war, which has the U.S. benchmark hovering just above its starting level for 2025.

Expectations for the dollar are gloomier, with 68% of the 25 respondents to that question forecasting the U.S. currency will keep falling at least until the first half of next year. That includes the 40% of participants who expect the depreciation trend to extend into 2027.

The MLIV panel discussed both whether U.S. exceptionalism in equities was past its use-by date, and the potential concerns about how sustainable the dollar’s haven role has become.

The survey responses may be taken to signal doubts that U.S. equities will be knocked from their perch anytime soon, especially given the still-positive impacts from the artificial-intelligence boom expected to feed through into corporate earnings.

The dollar’s downtrend is seen as far more sustainable. That signals respondents may be leaning into the idea that the currency channel will go on being the clearest expression of concerns regarding U.S. assets in general.

If investors are going to be demanding a greater premium to put their money into the U.S., that will come via a lower U.S. dollar level rather than via sustained, serious declines in nominal asset prices.

As for Treasuries, responses were more evenly split. A modest majority, 56% of the 25 who answered that question, expected the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.6% or above. That included the 24% of the total who forecast it would be above 5%. The yield was at 4.39% on Thursday. Some 20% saw it dropping below 4%.

The MLIV Pulse survey was conducted among Bloomberg clients immediately after MLIV’s Money & Macro panel held Thursday.

Reynolds writes for Bloomberg.