Sanchez Retains Solid Lead Over Dornan in Poll

Support for Rep. Loretta Sanchez has dipped in the last three months, but she still holds a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Robert K. Dornan, according to a survey released Tuesday by Chapman University.

However, Dornan hasn’t yet picked up those votes Sanchez appears to have lost in their hotly contested central Orange County district. Instead, there are more voters undecided--35%--than there were in a July poll by the university.

Among likely voters in the Nov. 3 election, the Garden Grove Democrat bested Dornan, 39% to 24%. Carving out just those who are “very likely” to vote, Sanchez drew 40% to Dornan’s 28%.

Dornan’s support has not only remained unchanged since July, it has barely budged from the 25% of the vote he received in the June open primary when he faced three GOP challengers.

With the general election less than a month away, the latest survey suggests that Dornan has not succeeded in picking up votes that went to other Republicans in the primary, according to Mark Mattern, a Chapman professor and poll coordinator.

Nevertheless, Mark Dornan, who is managing his father’s campaign, said the poll indicates that Republicans are deserting Sanchez and that the race is tightening. Sanchez defeated Dornan by 984 votes in 1996.

“Her lead has been cut and it’s going to continue,” Mark Dornan said. “We have our core base. If we get all of the Republicans back, we win.”

Sanchez spokesman Lee Godown said both candidates are well-known in the district and that private polls continue to show that voters favor his boss.

“We’ve never said this is going to be a blowout,” Godown said. “It’s always been a competitive race.”

The Chapman survey, conducted over the last week of September, covered 526 residents who said they were likely to vote. The July poll covered registered voters who weren’t asked if they were going to vote. In the earlier survey, Sanchez held a lead of 45% to 24% over Dornan, a 21 percentage-point margin.

The latest survey shows Sanchez running strong in every ethnic group and claiming two-thirds of Democratic votes. Fewer than half of Republican respondents said they would pick Dornan, who represented the district for 12 of his 18 years in Congress.

Mattern attributed the dip in Sanchez’s popularity partly to Republican crossover voters disgusted with her party because of the sex scandal involving President Clinton, who has helped Sanchez raise campaign funds. About a third of those polled, mostly Republicans, said the scandal would affect their vote.

The poll also suggests that one issue Dornan is focusing on may not help him much. Dornan, hoping to appeal to Latino Catholics who oppose abortion, has made Sanchez’s support for abortion rights a major issue of his campaign.

But the poll indicates that the issue plays a minor role in swaying voters: Both candidates enjoyed support from voters who disagreed with them on the issue.

Only a third of those polled in the district said abortion was a determining factor in their choice of candidates. In fact, the poll showed that 55% said they favored abortion rights.

Two-thirds of the respondents also said their votes would not be affected by Dornan’s long, bitter challenge to his 1996 election defeat, a challenge based on claims of noncitizens voting illegally. The House decided that more than 700 noncitizens had voted, not enough to overturn the election.

Respondents split on whether Dornan’s voter-fraud challenge was valid, with 44% saying it was and 37% saying it wasn’t. However, more felt Dornan was wasting taxpayer money than protecting the integrity of the electoral system.

Additionally, more than half said Congress did the right thing in reimbursing Sanchez for her costs in fending off Dornan’s claims. Fewer than a third were as generous toward Dornan’s reimbursement.

The Chapman poll surveyed likely voters in English, Spanish and Vietnamese between Sept. 24 and Oct. 1. Those surveyed included nearly equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats. Though the district has more registered Democrats, Republicans have a higher voter turnout.

The poll has a 5 percentage-point margin of error, meaning preferences could vary by that amount in either direction.

In other races, those polled were evenly divided between gubernatorial candidates Republican Dan Lungren and Democrat Gray Davis, with about two of every five undecided. Likewise, respondents were equally split between U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat, and Republican Matt Fong, with about the same percentage undecided.

In a hypothetical matchup for a presidential race in 2000, more respondents by a slight margin said they would choose Republican Elizabeth Dole over Democratic Vice President Al Gore.

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Sanchez-Dornan Race

Rep. Loretta Sanchez leads former Rep. Robert K. Dornan among those most likely to vote in the 46th Congressional District. But 35% of the likely voters and almost one-third of “very likely” voters are undecided:

Very likely voters

Sanchez 40%

Dornan 28%

Other 2%

Undecided 30%

Source: Chapman University